If there is a second referendum ...

lisyloo

margaretx9 wrote: »

Parties which committed to leaving the EU won 85% of the vote at last year's general election - that's around 27 million votes. Even if of course many of those voting for one of those parties appear not to have read its manifesto!

That doesn't of course mean that 85% wanted to leave or anything approaching it as most of us wouldn't be voting on a single issue.

Guerillatoker

I voted remain but I think people advocating for another vote are being disingenuous.

I'm going to assume they expect the ballot to have 3 options:
-Mays Deal
-No Deal
-Remain

This unfairly splits the Leave vote and almost guarantees a Remain result, unless some kind of proportional or alternative vote, where the options are ranked by the voters, is used (which I doubt as it would be a further criticism of FPTP which is good to the Tories & I think such a vote is most likely to return a May's Deal result).

Therefore the only fair way to hold it would be to not have Remain on the ballot, leaving us with May's Deal or No Deal, with No Deal suddenly becoming a real possibility.

lisyloo

It's lucky there's nothing happening that requires european help



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46705128

lisyloo

I voted remain but I think people advocating for another vote are being disingenuous.

I think we should have the option to remain now that we know what we know i.e. we're not getting a good deal, no deal requires military involvement and puts us as risk (cressida), gridlock in kent, medicines not getting through etc.


However I agree it should be done fairly so the leave vote is not split and I think that is possible.

BobQ

BikingBud wrote: »

Parliament voted to initiate Clause 50 why can they not deliver now?

Party politics or anything but what they say!

Who knows. My view is they voted to initiate Article 50 because they never expected it would end up with an outcome like the options now available. But nobody really knows.
s
While many Tories are blaming Corbyn for for the preset impasse, that is not the problem. The problem remains a divided Tory Party. But a second referendum will only happen if the Tories cannot unite in enough numbers to carry a parliamentary majority.

kabayiri

lisyloo wrote: »

It's lucky there's nothing happening that requires european help



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46705128

EU/UK policy makers ... makes no difference.

They are all caught in the headlights of this type of problem played out in the media as a humanity/morality play.

Sometimes, the honest answer is that there is *no* palatable solution, and this is something neither the EU nor the UK politicians can admit.

Macron talks of 100m+ new arrivals within the next generation or so into Europe, mostly from Africa.

There is no sustainable answer to this. I suspect buying shares in fence making companies might be a smart play.

Guerillatoker

lisyloo wrote: »

I think we should have the option to remain now that we know what we know i.e. we're not getting a good deal, no deal requires military involvement and puts us as risk (cressida), gridlock in kent, medicines not getting through etc.


However I agree it should be done fairly so the leave vote is not split and I think that is possible.

I personally think the idea that we know more now is a warped perception. All the information was available to us prior to the referendum, but people were only looking to their preferred politicians to distil that information for them. I actually cannot think of anything we know now that we didn't know before (apart from No Deal, but...)

No Deal was never meant to be an option and was simply being used as a threat by May to preserve her zombie premiership. Unfortunately her bluff has been called so No Deal has become a possible conclusion, but she can play this to her advantage (by blackmailing eurocentrics) and another referendum only weakens her position (so there won't be one).

kabayiri

BobQ wrote: »

Who knows. My view is they voted to initiate Article 50 because they never expected it would end up with an outcome like the options now available. But nobody really knows.
s
...

Why? Where is the evidence for this?

They delayed initiating A50 by a year, precisely so that they had time to be ready.

The *only* knowable outcome from the A50 process is that there will be a parting at the end of the 2 year period, unless something is agreed which better suits both parties.

That's all it is. A 2 year window to work out the divorce arrangement.

People now act like the 'crashing out event' is some kind of surprise which crept up on us. It didn't.

kabayiri

Guerillatoker wrote: »

...
No Deal was never meant to be an option and was simply being used as a threat by May to preserve her zombie premiership. Unfortunately her bluff has been called so No Deal has become a possible conclusion, but she can play this to her advantage (by blackmailing eurocentrics) and another referendum only weakens her position (so there won't be one).

PM May would be expected to take up a formal position in any follow up referendum.

What would that be? She has to push for her deal to be on the list, purely for a show of competence.

But...she is a Remainer at heart, and this would be played upon during the referendum.

It's hard to see how she could win from another referendum on a personal level.

Guerillatoker

kabayiri wrote: »

PM May would be expected to take up a formal position in any follow up referendum.

What would that be? She has to push for her deal to be on the list, purely for a show of competence.

But...she is a Remainer at heart, and this would be played upon during the referendum.

It's hard to see how she could win from another referendum on a personal level.

You know I hadn't even considered this, good point.