If there is a second referendum ...

Carl31

Backbiter wrote: »

The electorate has changed a bit since June 2016. A large number of voters aged 18-20 have since become eligible to vote, and didn't have that question in 2016. A fair number who did are sadly no longer with us.

on that basis, we need referendums every 2 years, and should have been having them on that basis since the 70s

Carl31

AFF8879 wrote: »

Parliament can’t agree on anything though, so I think it’s perfectly fair to include May’s eventual deal as an option along with remain / WTO.

Though the problem with the 3 binary options is that it would dilute the leave vote. Ie if you had a majority for leave but split between May/WTO, with remain as the single largest vote (ie 20% WTO / 35% May / 45% remain), I cannot really see any fair way to implement that.

you would add the leave vote together, then the majority is what you went on, if it won

Herzlos

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Equally, a lot of voters have got older and wiser and would now vote leave.

Wiser? Maybe. Some will vote leave? Sure. More of them than younger folk who vote remain? Who knows.


There's no way to tell if someone will shift from Remain->Leave as they age, though they do become more conservative. As times goes on, those voters with less access to education and foreginers (2 of the 3 bigger factors in Brexit vote) will be unable to vote. Is a 65 year old in 2018 as likely to vote Leave as a 65 year old in 2016? We just don't have enough data.

There is only one reason why people want a three answer referendum.

To identify the will of the people and figure out what to do?


The only reason to be scared of another referendum or a 3-question referendum is the fear that Leave will lose. That'd only be the case if people felt the reason for leaving was pretty tenuous or that there was some grand conspiracy to prevent it.

fewgroats

It depends on whether you trust the government, let alone the EU.

Enterprise_1701C

Herzlos wrote: »

To identify the will of the people and figure out what to do?


The only reason to be scared of another referendum or a 3-question referendum is the fear that Leave will lose. That'd only be the case if people felt the reason for leaving was pretty tenuous or that there was some grand conspiracy to prevent it.

No Herzlos. As you know, it would split the Leave vote and would be the only way to guarantee a Remain win.

If Remain won 40% of the vote and the other two were split 30/30, that would mean Remain won, just how fair would that be. If you think the country is split now it would be incendiary then.

No, the only referendum possible is a Leave on May's terms or Leave under WTO (and tell eu to get stuffed regarding the £39BN, argue the legalities later.)

Enterprise_1701C

fewgroats wrote: »

It depends on whether you trust the government, let alone the EU.

Trust the eu :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Pennywise

AFF8879 wrote: »

Parliament can’t agree on anything though, so I think it’s perfectly fair to include May’s eventual deal as an option along with remain / WTO.

Though the problem with the 3 binary options is that it would dilute the leave vote. Ie if you had a majority for leave but split between May/WTO, with remain as the single largest vote (ie 20% WTO / 35% May / 45% remain), I cannot really see any fair way to implement that.

You have two questions.

Q1. Leave or remain.

Q2. If you voted leave, do you want May's deal or no deal.

That way the leave vote isn't split between leave or remain. The "leavers" then get the choice as to what kind of leave.

Pennywise

Backbiter wrote: »

The electorate has changed a bit since June 2016. A large number of voters aged 18-20 have since become eligible to vote, and didn't have that question in 2016. A fair number who did are sadly no longer with us.

And a number of "young" voters who voted remain may have "grown up" and changed their mind and would now vote to leave.

It's a fact that people tend to change their vote as they enter the working world, have families, etc.

You can't assume that someone who voted one way in the past will always vote that way in the future, so it's more complicated than younger people voting for the first time and other elderly people dying.

Enterprise_1701C

Pennywise wrote: »

You have two questions.

Q1. Leave or remain.

Q2. If you voted leave, do you want May's deal or no deal.

That way the leave vote isn't split between leave or remain. The "leavers" then get the choice as to what kind of leave.

Remain can't be on the table, it would cause riots.

StevieJ

AFF8879 wrote: »

Parliament can’t agree on anything though, so I think it’s perfectly fair to include May’s eventual deal as an option along with remain / WTO.

Though the problem with the 3 binary options is that it would dilute the leave vote. Ie if you had a majority for leave but split between May/WTO, with remain as the single largest vote (ie 20% WTO / 35% May / 45% remain), I cannot really see any fair way to implement that.

I am not sure that you can have three Binary options?