The fate of May?

spadoosh

andrewf75 wrote: »

In the sense that we are existing members, we are different to countries which have never been members, that's all I'm saying.

I'm struggling to see how anyone can dispute this and believe that we can just become a third country like Russia or the US overnight.

Even for a hard Brexit you still need an exit deal.

Can you tell me how we cant?

Is it not just a case of having one set of rules to follow one day and the next having a slightly different set of rules that you follow? A bit like starting a new job.

andrewf75

spadoosh wrote: »

Can you tell me how we cant?

Is it not just a case of having one set of rules to follow one day and the next having a slightly different set of rules that you follow? A bit like starting a new job.

if the government was united on your outcome, commanded a majority and set out the plan from day one of the 2 year notice period it could have worked like that - in theory.

Herzlos

spadoosh wrote: »

Is it not just a case of having one set of rules to follow one day and the next having a slightly different set of rules that you follow? A bit like starting a new job.

We absolutely could. Well, maybe a few weeks to negotiate all the stuff that still needs to be sorted, but we could go to WTO pretty quickly.


Everyone relying on access to the EU that's better than WTO terms would be screwed though.



Ditto for any other off the shelf option.

spadoosh

Herzlos wrote: »

We absolutely could. Well, maybe a few weeks to negotiate all the stuff that still needs to be sorted, but we could go to WTO pretty quickly.


Everyone relying on access to the EU that's better than WTO terms would be screwed though.



Ditto for any other off the shelf option.

Define screwed?

If my bills went up 20% i wouldnt be screwed, id be out of pocket. I my job took 10% longer itd be annoying but i wouldnt be screwed.

Ok youve got someone that relies on access to the EU. From this you could deduce that either they have a product/service the EU wants, or they want a product/service the EU has. In this kind of scenario where someone has something to sell someone else wants its incredibly difficult to stop a trade form happening. If the situation becomes less favourable, one of the parties will no longer be willing to commit to the trade. A typical example of this would be price. So lets say there s british person who wants to buy an EU car, it was £10 when in the EU. Out of the EU WTO tariffs kick in, so were looking at new tariffs. The EU iirc has 10% on imported cars so its now £11. THe person who wants the car now has to weigh up if they are willing to pay that price. They dont have to but they can. They decide not to. Now the manufacturer has a car they cant sell, well not to that person. They have a choice, either lower the price and thus reducing their margins to sell the car or hold out and hope someone pays for it. Sometmes they will sometimes they wont. Thats economics, supply and demand, wants and needs etc.


Literally the only thing that changes in that whole scenario inside and outside the EU is the 10% part becomes 0%. INterstingly the EU have apparently put the feelers out with the US about tariff free car trade between the states.

In terms of WTO rules, worst case scenario is like a 10% increase in tariffs etc. Now obviously this only costs us on imports. So the impact ont he economy is going to be smaller than this, not forgetting that our economy largely serves our economy. So worst case WTO kicks in and the country is less than 10% worse off. Take 10% off your income are you screwed or do you just need to sort out alternative arrangements? Add 10% to your bills are you screwed or are you just going to cancel your sky subscription?

Herzlos

In the event of a WTO deal, all UK manufacturers that rely on the single market or access to the EU (car manufacturing, lots of food factories, etc) will find supply chain problems and increased costs/delays getting to market and will likely move to the EU (so all the jobs in the factories, and the jobs supporting them will be lost, with no replacement).

Euro clearing won't be able to happen in the UK, so those banking firms will need to move at least some capacity into the EU. Banking is responsible for something like 9% of our economy directly (11% indirectly). A drop of 10% in the tax revenue would mean pretty big tax hikes for everyone, and austerity that makes the last few Tory terms look good.


Then everything sourced from/through the EU will take longer. So we'd be looking at a lot of job losses, and costs going up across the board. Lots would merely be inconvenienced, but lots would be screwed (all those 'just about managing' people).


It'd be what the people wanted though. Right up until they realised what it meant and wanted back in.


Take your car example, a 10% tariff, and an average UK car price of £28,973 means that if the GBP:EUR stayed level the average car would cost £2,900 more.

spadoosh

Herzlos wrote: »

In the event of a WTO deal, all UK manufacturers that rely on the single market or access to the EU (car manufacturing, lots of food factories, etc) will find supply chain problems and increased costs/delays getting to market and will likely move to the EU (so all the jobs in the factories, and the jobs supporting them will be lost, with no replacement). This is pure speculation. Just look at all the manufacturing facilities someone like toyota has. Thailand, the UK, venezuela, the US, South Africa, Russia to name a few. Toyota dont have catastrophic issues getting parts and supplies to these facilities. Why would they in one of the most advanced nations in the world that was built on the back of its trade empires and pretty much set the ground works of global trade?

Euro clearing won't be able to happen in the UK, so those banking firms will need to move at least some capacity into the EU. Banking is responsible for something like 9% of our economy directly (11% indirectly). A drop of 10% in the tax revenue would mean pretty big tax hikes for everyone, and austerity that makes the last few Tory terms look good. again youre speculating. It makes me wonder hat happened to all american Bank of America jobs that where lost when they moved themselves to the EU so they could access that market. Wait what.... it didnt change the number of american employees at all? NO that cant be right, remainers say all the jobs will leave.


Then everything sourced from/through the EU will take longer. So we'd be looking at a lot of job losses, and costs going up across the board. Lots would merely be inconvenienced, but lots would be screwed (all those 'just about managing' people) Its not a great idea for a multinational business to not plan ahead. Ive always thought it odd that the NHS ordered loads of flu vaccine for the winter, amost like they expect an increase in cases and plan for such an event. .


It'd be what the people wanted though. Right up until they realised what it meant and wanted back in.

I wanted my liberty. Its priceless to me. You might be sold for an extra 10% or 20% of your earnings but i just cant do it. I want my daughter to be able to create the world she wants to live in not restrict her to the EUs vision of how things should be. We wouldnt fit in, im an advocate of personal responsibility and independence, its not really that i dont want the EU, im just certain they dont want me.

andrewf75

spadoosh wrote: »

I wanted my liberty. Its priceless to me. You might be sold for an extra 10% or 20% of your earnings but i just cant do it. I want my daughter to be able to create the world she wants to live in not restrict her to the EUs vision of how things should be. We wouldnt fit in, im an advocate of personal responsibility and independence, its not really that i dont want the EU, im just certain they dont want me.

I'm the same in that I'm not really bothered by the economics, but I don't see any way whatsoever that the EU restricts my freedom in fact sticking together with the rest of Europe protects it in many ways. The realities of the global world we live in mean that there will always be common rules, unless we want to be isolated. Overall these rules protect our freedoms far more than they restrict them.

Herzlos

spadoosh wrote: »

I wanted my liberty. Its priceless to me.

Ditto, well to an extent; you can't eat liberty. But I feel I get more liberty from being a part of the EU than outside it. Can you think of a single liberty that the EU takes away from you? The right to buy goods in lbs and oz? The right to buy more powerful vacuum cleaners?


Personally I feel the Tory government is the much bigger threat to liberty and quality of life to normal people, even more so when they don't have to abide by the ECJ.

You might be sold for an extra 10% or 20% of your earnings but i just cant do it.

I'm certainly not keen to have a reduced quality of life (and my earnings will be fine, I'm a higher rate earner and not particularly reliant on the UK or EU economies, and I'm in a country that looks after people), in order to attain some non-existent liberties.

I want my daughter to be able to create the world she wants to live in not restrict her to the EUs vision of how things should be.

So you want her to have less access to all the EU can provide, because you think she'll do better from an increasingly inward looking and bossed around UK? What do you reckon she'll be able to do from outside of the EU that she couldn't from inside?


I feel my kids will be better off inside the EU (more opportunities) than outside. More stable economy, less cutting of "red tape".

We wouldnt fit in, im an advocate of personal responsibility and independence, its not really that i dont want the EU, im just certain they dont want me.

Fair enough. I don't feel the EU makes us any less independent in any ways that matter, but I'm all for the bigger more inclusive states and economies of scale.

spadoosh

andrewf75 wrote: »

I'm the same in that I'm not really bothered by the economics, but I don't see any way whatsoever that the EU restricts my freedom in fact sticking together with the rest of Europe protects it in many ways. The realities of the global world we live in mean that there will always be common rules, unless we want to be isolated. Overall these rules protect our freedoms far more than they restrict them.

You wouldnt give me your bank details would you? You wouldnt let me manage your finances? You wouldnt let me tell you what you can and cant spend your money on? And you certainly wouldnt let me tell you when you could and couldnt have intercourse with your partner.

Its almost like youre saying that you just arent responsible enough to be trusted to act alone. Like youre worried youd suddenly wake up and feel the need to start gathering slaves up. I do appreciate that weve been raised to fear everything and be completely reliant on things we know nothing about. We dont know a lot about the EU but its not something we need to or even should have to rely on. We need to be able to make righteous decisions ourselves, we need to stand on our own feet and make progress, it cant be at the hand of other people as its never fulfilling.

No one ever has a come back when i ask them why they arent still living with their parents, its economically better, its better in terms of family dynamics and you just ultimately end up having to say the reason you left your parents was because you wanted to, and its weird banging your bird when your mum and dad are listening And that what im like with the EU, i get on weith them, i want to work together on cool things with them, makes sense to sort out some kind of hyperloop across europe thats mutually beneficial, youre just never going to hold me to account, im a big boy and hold myself to account.

andrewf75

Some pretty crazy analogies there! There is no fear or self doubt for me, quite the opposite. I know we could go it alone, but IMO there are greater benefits in working together. Its as simple as that really, there isn't any fundamental difference in mentality between me and you. I think everyone wants as much freedom to make our own decisions as possible, but its always a balance. Its just where we consider that balance to be. I'd argue that part of being a "big boy" is knowing when to compromise.