Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Herzlos

antrobus wrote: »

What's that got to do with negotiations?

Because negotiating requires a starting position. We still do to seem to have one.

You mean to say when the UK says, your share of the national debt is £200 bn at 5% plus RPI, Scotland is going to say, yeh fine, where do we sign?

If that's what's fairly calculated then no problem. 5% + RPI seems pretty steep.

There is no 'off the shelf membership' of the EU. You apply and the EU goes through the process. It took Croatia three years.

That's off the shelf. It shouldn't take us 3 years since we adhere to all the regulations currently.

One, it's 'us guys' because the whole of the UK is leaving the EU.

Yet it's only England and Wales that wants to leave, and even that's a stretch.

Two, yes it's quite easy, because the Lisbon Treaty contains an exit provision. Which has been triggered.

Then why are we having such a hard time making any progress on it?

ukcarper

Arklight wrote: »

No, I'm branding racism and xenophobia as racism and xenophobia. If you don't want racists and xenophobes in your Brexit movement then kick them out.

I'm not holding my breath.

It's not my Brexit movement, so you accept that the vast majority of leave voters are not xenophobic racists and it's legitimate to be concerned about imigration.

Herzlos

I had an interesting dilemma the other day; my work calendar is fully booked until March, and I'm now being asked to start filling April. Seems simple enough, right? But since we've no idea what the relationship with the EU will be by then, how cautious do I need to be?


Now I mean I'm sure we'll still be able to travel freely (albeit with a VISA, and I'll probably need to send engineering equipment in advance to get it through customs*), but we don't know when the VISA program will open to us, or how long it'll take. We've no idea what the customs situation is or how long it'll take. Flights I'm sure will probably be fine if they don't get cancelled due to lack of demand or get stuck somewhere.


So do I just avoid visiting EU in April to give it a month for everything to settle, or is 2 weeks enough?
Do I assume that nothing will actually change and be prepared to embarrass myself by having to cancel bookings? Do I just try and make sure I'm over there before Brexit comes into effect?


So Brexiteers, if it was your time, reputation and money on the line, what would you do?



*This introduces a new issue; if my equipment takes longer to send, I need to send it further in advance (I can get it from my office to a customer site by the next day currently). Depending on my schedule and the delays, I may need to fork out for additional sets and have multiple ones in flight to different sites at a time, which is going to cost $$$$'s and be a logistical nightmare.

Moby

wunferall wrote: »

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/migration-crisis-could-be-the-undoing-of-eu

How the EU's migrant farce is seen by the rest of the world.

On the one hand you are saying the EU is a racist institution on the other you are criticising it's asylum policies for being overly generous??????

Malthusian

Herzlos wrote: »

So Brexiteers, if it was your time, reputation and money on the line, what would you do?

Drag my knuckles along the floor, punch a Pole then watch some Jeremy Kyle.

The actual answer is "carry on as normal" but you already knew that.

Thousands of people will be doing the exactly the same which is why there will be no grounding of flights, no travel ban for UK citizens, and transitional arrangements as needed.

Arklight

wunferall wrote: »

Here's a fact for you Arklight.
Portsmouth to Benghazi = 2478 nautical miles.
Siracusa to Benghazi = 377 nautical miles.

Now I wonder why more of your asylum seekers end up in Italy - especially when international law stipulates that asylum seekers are obliged to claim asylum in the first safe country they enter?
Oh and Germany (or rather Merkel) actually invited theirs.

Small wonder both countries are seeing a continued increase in populism.

Congratulations on understanding nothing about refugee migration.

Yes, people travel 2500 miles through some of the most difficult and dangerous circumstances imaginable, but they come to a complete halt as soon as they get to Italy.

That's what you believe.

That's what you actually believe.

Arklight

Labour trouncing the Tories in the polls today.

Mervin King excoriates Theresa Maybe's Brexit incompetence.

It's not looking good for Brexiteers.

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

Congratulations on understanding nothing about refugee migration.

Yes, people travel 2500 miles through some of the most difficult and dangerous circumstances imaginable, but they come to a complete halt as soon as they get to Italy.

Out of curiosity, I would like to know why there are half a million undocumented illegal immigrants in Italy if it's so easy for them to leave. Where are they going and how are they getting there?

antrobus

Herzlos wrote: »

Because negotiating requires a starting position. We still do to seem to have one. ...

I still don't see how it effects the difficulty of negotiations.

Herzlos wrote: »

...
If that's what's fairly calculated then no problem. 5% + RPI seems pretty steep...

Of course it's fairly calculated. 5% + RPI includes a risk premium. As you're the one that doesn't want to waste so much time infighting, I don't see the problem.

Herzlos wrote: »

...
That's off the shelf. It shouldn't take us 3 years since we adhere to all the regulations currently. ...

You're hoping for two? Besides, Scotland currently has a fiscal deficit of 7.9&. The SNP's (optimistic) independence plan involves reducing that to 2.6% over ten years. So it would take a decade to get below the EU 3% target.

Whatever, there is still no such thing as off the shelf EU membership. Perhaps you could point me in the direction of where this 'shelf' is located and how the product is defined.:)

Herzlos wrote: »

...
Yet it's only England and Wales that wants to leave, and even that's a stretch....

The UK is leaving the EU. There is no stretch, we had a referendum. Didn't produce the result I wanted, but that's democracy for you.

Herzlos wrote: »

...
Then why are we having such a hard time making any progress on it?

Brexit will happen on 29 March 2019.

It's what happens afterwards that people are arguing about.

Does it not occur to you that any independence negotiations will face exactly the same problem only in spades? There are so many more things to argue about; debt, public sector pensions, state pensions, the national insurance fund, armed forces, the trident base .......

You still haven't really thought this through have you?:)

antrobus

mayonnaise wrote: »

Don't try to make sense of grubby Europhobia, Moby.

Was Tony Benn a grubby Europhobe? Or did socialism-in-one-country make it hunky dory?