Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Ballard

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The word , to be repeated yet again , is intransigent. No sign of any openess at all.

They hold all of the cards. The idea that they need us more than we need them is, and always has been, nonsense. They don’t need to do anything because they can hold us to ransom.

With minimal effort on their part they can cause absolute chaos at Dover and can keep it going for months. It would obviously hurt them but not nearly as much as it’d hurt us. This would leave us in a very weak position from where they can offer us a deal that suits them.

The tricky part would be to arrange some sort of deal that the Tories could paint as being good.

ukcarper

Ballard wrote: »

They hold all of the cards. The idea that they need us more than we need them is, and always has been, nonsense. They don’t need to do anything because they can hold us to ransom.

With minimal effort on their part they can cause absolute chaos at Dover and can keep it going for months. It would obviously hurt them but not nearly as much as it’d hurt us. This would leave us in a very weak position from where they can offer us a deal that suits them.

The tricky part would be to arrange some sort of deal that the Tories could paint as being good.

Deliberately damaging someone because you are more powerful than them, isn't that bullying?

buglawton

It is, but the real sin would be the UK capitulating to it. Which many politicians seem to want to do in advance.

kabayiri

Ballard wrote: »

....
With minimal effort on their part they can cause absolute chaos at Dover and can keep it going for months. It would obviously hurt them but not nearly as much as it’d hurt us. This would leave us in a very weak position from where they can offer us a deal that suits them.
...

The idea that this would happen without retaliation is facile.

On the same basis, we could grind Eire into the dust should we see fit. That's the way power plays go.

Ballard

ukcarper wrote: »

Deliberately damaging someone because you are more powerful than them, isn't that bullying?

It's playing the cards that you have well. It's also what many leave voters expected the UK to do because they thought that we held all of the cards.

They need us more than we need them.

Ballard

kabayiri wrote: »

The idea that this would happen without retaliation is facile.

On the same basis, we could grind Eire into the dust should we see fit. That's the way power plays go.

We could get Trump to build a wall between the two parts of the island of Ireland I suppose.

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We already had a 7 year brake agreed as part of Cameron's renegotiation.

Along with formal exemption to 'ever closer union'.

Brexiteers at the time described that as him getting 'nothing' from the EU.

Putting aside for a moment that no matter what he/we got from the EU in concessions it would never be enough for the Brexiteers, what makes you think getting what we were already offered last time would be 'enough' for the public?

And given we are desperate for migrant labour in the UK because of the ongoing labour shortage and lowest unemployment for half a century, when we got the brake but chose not to use it, how would that play out?

I don’t recall any brake on FOM being offered, happy to be corrected though.
For those who want out of the EU regardless then of course no concession is good enough, I sense however that a 2nd vote (with concessions from the EU) on the issue would to see a majority for ‘remain’.
The issues around the U.K. jobs scene are complex and way more complicated than the ‘lowest unemployment rate since 1975 and 1 million vacancies’ story.

kabayiri

Tromking wrote: »

I don’t recall any brake on FOM being offered, happy to be corrected though.
For those who want out of the EU regardless then of course no concession is good enough, I sense however that a 2nd vote (with concessions from the EU) on the issue would to see a majority for ‘remain’.
The issues around the U.K. jobs scene are complex and way more complicated than the ‘lowest unemployment rate since 1975 and 1 million vacancies’ story.

There were restrictions on the proposed brake, how it could be used etc.

It did sound like fudgery at the time. One of Cameron's strengths was that he was a good marketeer, but it didn't feel like a win when he came back and tried to sell the deal.

The idea of UK staying both within the EU and yet somehow in glorious isolation as the Eurozone becomes ever more integrated...well, even those in the EU parliament questioned this.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

The idea that this would happen without retaliation is facile.

On the same basis, we could grind Eire into the dust should we see fit. That's the way power plays go.

The EU can hurt us massively by sitting back and letting us take out ball and go home - they don't need to actively do anything when what we want is so destructive. They'll still get blamed but their response will be "This is literally what you asked for".

ukcarper

Ballard wrote: »

It's playing the cards that you have well. It's also what many leave voters expected the UK to do because they thought that we held all of the cards.

They need us more than we need them.

I'm not a leave voter and I mistakenly expected a more cooperative approach especially as both sides said they wished to remain friends.