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Brexit the economy and house prices part 6
Comments
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So the party is more important than country to majority of MPs and even though they believe leaving EU would be a disaster they supported a referendum. If they ignore referendum now what do you think that will do to UKIP and leave voters.
You’re surprised that parties put themselves before country?
What would happen if we didn’t leave the EU? People would get upset but all of the polls suggest that remain is now ahead and even if we take the referendum result barely half of those of voted opted to leave. It would hurt them but not terminally.
I have no doubt, incidentally, that we will leave. There won’t be a second referendum on leaving nor one on the deal that we secure to leave.
Once we’ve left I think that things will get worse for the U.K. If I’m right then the election after Brexit will be very interesting.0 -
So the party is more important than country to majority of MPs and even though they believe leaving EU would be a disaster they supported a referendum.
No win situation. UKIP could have simply snowballed. Could still see a resurgence. Just needs a wealthy benefactor to fund the deposits for candidates to stand.0 -
You!!!8217;re surprised that parties put themselves before country?
What would happen if we didn!!!8217;t leave the EU? People would get upset but all of the polls suggest that remain is now ahead and even if we take the referendum result barely half of those of voted opted to leave. It would hurt them but not terminally.
I have no doubt, incidentally, that we will leave. There won!!!8217;t be a second referendum on leaving nor one on the deal that we secure to leave.
Once we!!!8217;ve left I think that things will get worse for the U.K. If I!!!8217;m right then the election after Brexit will be very interesting.
No I'm not surprised and they are still acting the same. I think if they did ignore referendum and not leave or even if a deal was reached but that mean accepting FOM and substantially being subject to EU courts both major parties would lose significant votes.
Like You I don't think there will be a second referendum but I wouldn't rule out a fudge that in reality would mean we leave in name only.
The next general election will be interesting whenever it happen.
If I'm not mistaken polls before Referendum were predicting a remain win.0 -
If I'm not mistaken polls before Referendum were predicting a remain win.
It's difficult to say, Nigel Farage lied about the result of his mates poll in a Trading Places style market manipulation. It's difficult to know who to trust anymore.
I certainly have more trust in the EU than our own lying government.Once we!!!8217;ve left I think that things will get worse for the U.K. If I!!!8217;m right then the election after Brexit will be very interesting.
It's likely to be a brexiteer running the conservatives. They will conveniently forget that they suggested leaving and blame the electorate as they only delivered the will of the people. Quite frankly it is the electorates fault. For some reason they expect to not be held to account as "they only answered a question they were asked".Enterprise_1701C wrote: »And I want no part of a union that is so desperate for fiscal union but goes about it in a piecemeal manner.
This makes no sense. Aspirations for something and being able to achieve it are always out of step, that is reality.Enterprise_1701C wrote: »Even I realise that in a couple of centuries or so the world would have beeen likely to unite as one, but the eu has decided to put an early spanner in the works.
No, the ERG put the spanner in the works because of a grudge between William Rees Mogg and John Major. They've been making sure the EU is always blamed for everything and making us not trust foreigners. It's all very grubby.Enterprise_1701C wrote: »The over ambition of the idiots trying to run the eu has created the PIGS problem, that will not go away for a long while because their reaction is to dig deeper holes for the countries concerned.
No, the PIGS problem was created by corruption in the countries involved. This is bound to happen on any change, you can't let people off scott free or they'll continue doing it. But you have to accept things will go wrong and deal with them.
That is why brexit is likely to take 50 years before there is a positive effect, while Farage, Rees Moggs and their mates make a killing.Enterprise_1701C wrote: »That very fact means I am out, and I cannot be the only one that has changed my mind from remain to leave.
You and Theresa May apparently.A 2nd referendum with a major concession on FOM, perhaps a 5 or 10 year brake will be enough to end Brexit IMO.
That can't work. We need the people coming here. After the whole britain turning against foreigners thing, we're likely going to have to start paying people incentives to come here.Very interesting and useful post. Thanks for sharing. Someone on LBC thought that Gina Miller was wrong for a reason that you!!!8217;re not sure about.
For Gina Miller to be wrong, Theresa May would have to be sitting on a secret proposal to the EU that they would accept but that parliament wouldn't. I don't think anyone sane could conceive that would be in any way possible. I'm not even sure what that kind of deal would look like, certainly Theresa May hasn't given any indication that she will put forward a proposal that the EU will accept.0 -
but I wouldn't rule out a fudge that in reality would mean we leave in name only.
The more fudged the outcome the less likely that the agreement will be signed off. Easier to leave without a deal. Then deal with matters on a singularly basis. As won't require ratification from individual member states. Perhaps this is Barniers thinking. With the Irish border issue only being the first of many mudslides.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »The more fudged the outcome the less likely that the agreement will be signed off. Easier to leave without a deal.
AFAICT the EU isn't interested in fudges. They seem to want everything to be open and honest.
Norway option isn't a fudge. It still seems (like it did before the referendum) it's that or crashing out.0 -
A 2nd referendum with a major concession on FOM, perhaps a 5 or 10 year brake will be enough to end Brexit IMO.
We already had a 7 year brake agreed as part of Cameron's renegotiation.
Along with formal exemption to 'ever closer union'.
Brexiteers at the time described that as him getting 'nothing' from the EU.
Putting aside for a moment that no matter what he/we got from the EU in concessions it would never be enough for the Brexiteers, what makes you think getting what we were already offered last time would be 'enough' for the public?
And given we are desperate for migrant labour in the UK because of the ongoing labour shortage and lowest unemployment for half a century, when we got the brake but chose not to use it, how would that play out?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Or how about:
UK: Let's sit down and discuss our exit.
EU: OK as long as you understand that you will do exactly as we say
UK: Article 50 requires you to negotiate an agreement
EU: Since when did we worry about breaking our own laws.
UK: What about Article 8 then?
EU: See our previous reply
UK:OK, goodbye then.
EU: What about our money?
UK: When you meet your obligations, we’ll meet ours.
Perfect
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There were 2 people on LBC last night, both very much Remain types, and one made the point that the Gina Miller decision made it more difficult for May's government to avoid a No Deal exit, not easier.
I only caught the tail of it, so didn't establish why, but it's an interesting take.
What we have right now is some weird democracy, where essentially internal party politics are constraining the options and chewing out time.
Was that more difficult to get a withdrawal agreement and transition period agreed?There will be no Brexit dividend for Britain.0
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