Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Thrugelmir

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

The problem I was trying to highlight was that if there is disruption in the short term (less than 5 years), we have more to lose than the EU does. The risk of crashing out is higher to us than them. Which is why it's harder for us to play hardball with them. Some of our industries (but not all) would be badly impacted by us crashing out.

A lot of the UK export trade is generated by services not tangible goods. These won't be held up by customs checks.

OldMusicGuy

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Alternative views are that the EU has been decreasing in importance both to imports and exports.

It's not an alternative view, it's a fact - that has been happening. Over time, the EU economy will become less important in GDP terms than the US, China and India. That's why I think long term we could make Brexit work if we have to. But that's in the long term. Right now, trade with the EU is still important to us.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Is the EU willing to throw away the income generated and employment created by selling to the UK.

It would prefer not to but my point is they have less to lose in total than us and also will find it easier tor replace lost income than us.

kabayiri

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

It's not an alternative view, it's a fact - that has been happening. Over time, the EU economy will become less important in GDP terms than the US, China and India. That's why I think long term we could make Brexit work if we have to. But that's in the long term. Right now, trade with the EU is still important to us.

...

For me this has been the crucial issue.

I used to be very pro-European, working a lot on the continent.

But...I think the biggest factor going forward is China and how the rise of China as #1 shapes the geopolitical landscape.

I just can't see a slow lumbering club like the EU competing long term.

That's if the club manages to avoid imploding when the Euro collapses, of course!

Theophile

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Is the EU willing to throw away the income generated and employment created by selling to the UK.

They'll still sell to the UK, but it will be dearer for us to buy. And if we buy less of their stuff because of that, they'll just have to sell more to other markets worldwide. The EU just did an FTA with Japan, a much larger economy. We are not that important, despite what Nigel, Boris and Dr. Fox keep telling you.

You (not you personally, but brexiteers in general) really need to let go of that imperial mindset that has produced meaningless phrases such as 'they need us more than we need them'.

ukcarper

Theophile wrote: »

They'll still sell to the UK, but it will be dearer for us to buy. And if we buy less of their stuff because of that, they'll just have to sell more to other markets worldwide. The EU just did an FTA with Japan, a much larger economy. We are not that important, despite what Nigel, Boris and Dr. Fox keep telling you.

You (not you personally, but brexiteers in general) really need to let go of that imperial mindset that has produced meaningless phrases such as 'they need us more than we need them'.

According to full fact at moment we are their second most important market.

kabayiri

Theophile wrote: »

...
You (not you personally, but brexiteers in general) really need to let go of that imperial mindset that has produced meaningless phrases such as 'they need us more than we need them'.
...

The reality is that protectionism on both sides is not evenly distributed.

It never has been.

Certain parts of the UK would suffer, and particular EU states would suffer.

Spanish and French farmers (& fishermen) don't tend to respond well to losing income streams. They wouldn't riot would they? Maybe they would if we post them a new supply of yellow vests. :rotfl:

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

With leave it was all fear based on nothing but xenophobia, it's amazing how people are sticking to their decision even though the leave campaign have admitted what they did

Your consistent reference to xenophobia is a condescending attitude towards grown up adults. Who are quite capable of making decisions for themselves. In the UK we've always had an open culture and accepting culture towards other nationalities. Far more in fact than other European states. Uncontrolled immigration has no relationship to xenophobia.

You and your colleagues aren't going to win any friends on either side of the debate with such words.

Thrugelmir

Theophile wrote: »

They'll still sell to the UK, but it will be dearer for us to buy.

Plus point is that the tax revenue goes to the UK Treasury. Secondly companies can reduce their prices at the expense of profit. Alternatively set up a UK operation again to service the market.

wunferall

phillw wrote: »

Only if you're both arrogant and 100% wrong, which is a toxic combination which affects 52% of the population it seems. I deal with people from many countries, they laugh at you & you deserve it.

I don't believe you and furthermore it looks like you're making it all up to suit your bias.
That would be why you have to resort to that most popular of remainer tactics when their opinions are questioned of using insult.

Many of us here really do speak to others around the world on a regular basis and from my experience certainly no one would even dream of being so crass as to "laugh at you".
In fact as you know, many in this forum live outside the UK and not one has suggested this.

If what you say is true then I think what you will find is that given the tone of your posts they are in fact laughing at you - and probably shaking their heads in disbelief at the sheer number of obviously incorrect assumptions whilst they do so.

The truth is as has been said before; outside the UK people don't care about Brexit unless they are in some way or other involved.
No matter where they are, they have enough closer to home to think about.

OldMusicGuy

ukcarper wrote: »

According to full fact at moment we are their second most important market.

The trouble is that the EU is the UK's most important market at the moment. So they matter more to us than we do to them right now. We can change that over time, but we do need time.