Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Lungboy

ukcarper wrote: »

But you believe anything the EU tell you WTO rules will impact hard on Ireland and EU countries that export to us.

Nobody is saying it won't though, the EU is prepared to accept that.

ukcarper

Lungboy wrote: »

Nobody is saying it won't though, the EU is prepared to accept that.

They might be prepared to accept it but that doesn't mean they are happy about it, put yourself in their position the U.K. parliament is strongly remain as is majority of media so they are getting the impression that we will avoid leaving but that is far from certain and we could just as easily leave on WTO rules as its looking like that is only choice.

wunferall

phillw wrote: »

No, the EU have prepared for it & all the Europeans I've spoken to see brexit as self harm and that we're at fault in the negotiations.

The people who voted for brexit will have explaining to do & nobody else.

I wonder how many non-UK Europeans you have spoken to exactly?
The answer is probably one that many of the more sensible readers will suspect and begins with the letter "z".

Thrugs has hit the nail on the head; many either have problems of their own far closer to home to concern them or they don't really care.
That might well change of course if Brexit causes a change to their circumstances; producers of formerly-UK-bound products finding their market hampered by new restrictions for example.

Moby

kabayiri wrote: »

Again, it doesn't matter. The whole Irish situation has been a mess ever since I've existed on this rock.

So don't ask me to start caring now.

Of course it matters to the people making decisions.

phillw

kabayiri wrote: »

Speaking of fear, what is PM May doing now? Using fear tactics to bully MPs into accepting that only her deal has any chance. The alternative hands power to Labour, yada yada.

But isn't that true?

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/japanese-car-companies-admit-pulling-out-of-uk-is-scare-story-and-true-story-20181204180188

With leave it was all fear based on nothing but xenophobia, it's amazing how people are sticking to their decision even though the leave campaign have admitted what they did

wunferall wrote: »

I wonder how many non-UK Europeans you have spoken to exactly?
The answer is probably one that many of the more sensible readers will suspect and begins with the letter "z".

Only if you're both arrogant and 100% wrong, which is a toxic combination which affects 52% of the population it seems. I deal with people from many countries, they laugh at you & you deserve it.

OldMusicGuy

One interesting statistic I found (on fullfact.org which does have connections with a Tory donor so may not be completely unbiased) is that UK trade with the EU accounted for between 12% to 15% of the UK's GDP over the last ten years. In 2016, EU trade with the UK was between 3 to 4% of their total GDP.

What that means is that in the short term, the EU matters a lot more to us than we do to the EU. Until we can sort out new trade agreements and replace that GDP with trade elsewhere, much more of our economy is at threat of short term disruption compared to the EU as a whole. That may be why the EU is less focused on Brexit than we are. The Irish clearly have a particular interest but the rest of the EU is supporting their strong position. As you would expect they are sticking together.

Obviously the 3 to 4 % is spread over 27 countries in total so some individual EU countries will feel more impact than others. But let's say you are an EU-based business that does a lot of business with the UK. If there is short term disruption due to a "crash out" Brexit, it will be easier for you to trade with new customers in other countries in Europe than it would be for a UK business to trade with any new customers either inside or outside the EU (could be tariffs in place and transport costs will be higher if you export to the US or Asia instead of the EU).

Longer term I think the UK will be able to sort out crashing out of the EU and do ok. But my concern is that in the short term we are more at risk of the impact of disruption than the EU, which may be giving them the confidence to play hardball with us. Coupled with our chaotic political situation as well, which clearly makes us weaker.

phillw

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

Longer term I think the UK will be able to sort out crashing out of the EU and do ok. But my concern is that in the short term we are more at risk of the impact of disruption than the EU, which may be giving them the confidence to play hardball with us. Coupled with our chaotic political situation as well, which clearly makes us weaker.

Our chaotic political situation is caused because of the point you made.

If in 50 years time we get back to how we are now and then start to improve things, we've had 50 years when it's been worse. I don't for one minute think there is a mandate for things to get worse for that long before they get better.

50 years is Rees Moggs prediction, Farage has stated that he's never said that people would ever be better off leaving.

Only the MPs that don't care about the people will be willing to implement brexit in that way, which is a surprisingly lower number than I thought. Their jobs can't be outsourced or downsized, but they might be worried that if they implement brexit then the people will vote them out for delivering what they asked for & not saving them from themselves.

Which is handily where a second referendum comes in handy.

At dignitas they ask you if you've changed your mind at the last minute, it's not mandatory just because you made an inquiry.

Thrugelmir

Lungboy wrote: »

Nobody is saying it won't though, the EU is prepared to accept that.

The EU is politically driven. Merkel, Varadkar and Macron will be long gone by the time the full ramifications sink home.

OldMusicGuy

phillw wrote: »

Our chaotic political situation is caused because of the point you made.

Not sure what you're saying there. I'm a remainer that would be happy with May's Brexit.
My point is that as someone that's been in business for many years, I do think that the complete doom and gloom scenario is being overemphsaized. If we did crash out, I think within a 5 year timescale we would probably be back to a reasonable working relationship with the EU and would have new trade deals in place with other countries.

The problem I was trying to highlight was that if there is disruption in the short term (less than 5 years), we have more to lose than the EU does. The risk of crashing out is higher to us than them. Which is why it's harder for us to play hardball with them. Some of our industries (but not all) would be badly impacted by us crashing out.

That's why I am OK with May's Brexit, which allows a phased transition and should avoid major short term disruption. I would still prefer to remain though but accept the referendum showed the overall desire to leave.

Thrugelmir

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

One interesting statistic I found (on fullfact.org which does have connections with a Tory donor so may not be completely unbiased) is that UK trade with the EU accounted for between 12% to 15% of the UK's GDP over the last ten years. In 2016, EU trade with the UK was between 3 to 4% of their total GDP.

If you combine 27 countries together to compare against 1 then the % will be far lower.

Alternative views are that the EU has been decreasing in importance both to imports and exports.

The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, increasing slightly to 44% in 2017.

The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 51% in 2011 before increasing to 53% in 2017.

Is the EU willing to throw away the income generated and employment created by selling to the UK.

The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£67 billion with the EU in 2017.