Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

spadoosh

Filo25 wrote: »

They won't be EU citizens for much longer will they, its not as though the UK govt has shown any interest in securing different arrangements for areas that voted Remain (Scotland being the obvious example), so I'm not sure what duty the EU has to look after the interests of inhabitants of an external country over the interests of a member nation.

Theyve got a duty to protect their citizens until brexit day. Bargaining their autonomy to pander to spain shows the complete disregard the EU has to anything other than itself. This is one of the many problems leavers have been trying to tell you about.

Its blatantly obvious even though we have a conservative government, in a referendum apparently about racism who the righteous parties are in this. Ill give you a clue, its not the ones selling their citizens autonomy down the river.

Filo25

spadoosh wrote: »

Theyve got a duty to protect their citizens until brexit day. Bargaining their autonomy to pander to spain shows the complete disregard the EU has to anything other than itself. This is one of the many problems leavers have been trying to tell you about.

Its blatantly obvious even though we have a conservative government, in a referendum apparently about racism who the righteous parties are in this. Ill give you a clue, its not the ones selling their citizens autonomy down the river.

And any citizens of Gibraltar surely will be protected until Brexit day?

Nothing is going to be finalised on Gibraltar's future status until much later in the process (ie after we have left the EU)

That said I haven't seen much sign that the UK government regards Gibraltar as a high priority in negotiations

spadoosh

andrewf75 wrote: »

not aware I mentioned it more than once, but best interests as in protecting the country's economic stability.

Even those who claim we should just leave without a deal would soon change their tune once reality hits.

That is of course why the Tory party struggles so much with Brexit, the whole ethos of the party is about stability and pragmatism rather than radical idealism. Yet Brexit is very much the latter! Its incompatible. And even the hardline Brexiteers know that, which is why they haven’t toppled May.

Theres a couple of posts, i dont need to highlight them do i?

What reality?

The reality seems to be about a very maximum of about 10% cost increase on trade. International trade is a poportiong of our economy. So worst case scenario is a less than 10% effect on GDP. No its not ideal but then it should be clear that opporunities will arise outside the EU offsetting a small portion of that. I really do think the EU will still be happy to buy most of our stuff and are happy to sellus stuff so i suspect a trade arrangement will be made up sooner or later further reducing the damage of said 10% effect on GDP. This is also something that will be mitigated the longer we are disentangled from the EU so more short term economic instability (managed with interest rates, money supply, and sensible economic practices) than doom forever.

So that the worst case.

Well they could try and be bumholes about us going on holiday and traveling for business trips but they would be being bumholes when they let most other nations do it relatively easily. The same with any other kind of cooperative agreement they have with other countries. The EU and america help each other on research all the time. So we cant expect them to say screw you can we?

spadoosh

Filo25 wrote: »

And any citizens of Gibraltar surely will be protected until Brexit day?

Nothing is going to be finalised on Gibraltar's future status until much later in the process (ie after we have left the EU)

That said I haven't seen much sign that the UK government regards Gibraltar as a high priority in negotiations

At least TM has suggested shes willing to respect the wishes of Gibaltarians. The EU see them as bargaining chips, theres no detracting from that.

andrewf75

spadoosh wrote: »

Theres a couple of posts, i dont need to highlight them do i?

What reality?

The reality seems to be about a very maximum of about 10% cost increase on trade. International trade is a poportiong of our economy. So worst case scenario is a less than 10% effect on GDP. No its not ideal but then it should be clear that opporunities will arise outside the EU offsetting a small portion of that. I really do think the EU will still be happy to buy most of our stuff and are happy to sellus stuff so i suspect a trade arrangement will be made up sooner or later further reducing the damage of said 10% effect on GDP. This is also something that will be mitigated the longer we are disentangled from the EU so more short term economic instability (managed with interest rates, money supply, and sensible economic practices) than doom forever.

So that the worst case.

Well they could try and be bumholes about us going on holiday and traveling for business trips but they would be being bumholes when they let most other nations do it relatively easily. The same with any other kind of cooperative agreement they have with other countries. The EU and america help each other on research all the time. So we cant expect them to say screw you can we?

Like you, I’m not that concerned about a 10% hit to GDP. I’d happily accept that to do things that I believe in as well.
Its hardly the worst case though. What about Northern Ireland? No deal means a border.

Easy for us to take these things lightly, not so much for those actually running the country.

spadoosh

andrewf75 wrote: »

Like you, I’m not that concerned about a 10% hit to GDP. I’d happily accept that to do things that I believe in as well.
Its hardly the worst case though. What about Northern Ireland? No deal means a border.

Easy for us to take these things lightly, not so much for those actually running the country.

Youd think there would be some form of arrangemnt that could be met to ensure a a fairly frictionless border without a unilateral customs union.

When i went from spain to gibraltar was pretty frictionless (the spanish go nuts every few months and cause like 6 hour delays) walked past some guy who was half asleep. I got my passport out but he wasnt interested. ITs a hard border i supposed but only when the SPanish spit their dummy out.

Moe_The_Bartender

Moby wrote: »

Remaining in the EU is much more a 'known risk' than leaving will ever be! The risks and variables of leaving are huge! No matter how you spin it the UK is about to spend years negotiating to make itself less well-off than it otherwise would have been. Is this the first known case in history of a country demanding a worse trade deal than it currently has? From the biggest and richest trade bloc in the world? We now face years of 'negotiation' and one thing is clear, each individual country will have it's own objectives and remember each individual country will be able to veto the trade deal. Spain will want to follow through on Gibraltar. France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands and Demark will be demanding access to British waters for their boats in return for EU market access for British fish and seafood. Greece might demand the return of the Elgin Marbles.

Surely not. You remainers keep telling us that it's only the UK that makes demands.

andrewf75

spadoosh wrote: »

Youd think there would be some form of arrangemnt that could be met to ensure a a fairly frictionless border without a unilateral customs union.

When i went from spain to gibraltar was pretty frictionless (the spanish go nuts every few months and cause like 6 hour delays) walked past some guy who was half asleep. I got my passport out but he wasnt interested. ITs a hard border i supposed but only when the SPanish spit their dummy out.

Yeah you could have a fairly frictionless one but it still opens a huge can of worms. Again, easy to just say “ah it’ll be fine” not so easy when you actually have responsibility for these things.

Thrugelmir

andrewf75 wrote: »

If there was a coherent plan for Brexit they wouldn’t need to.

What sort of plan are you hoping for. Sometimes one simply needs to get on with the task in hand. Businesses will be well in advanced in their planning.

Herzlos

In a move that surprises no-one, ECJ agree that Brexit is reversible. Unlikely to be sufficient for cogito though.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/european-court-of-justice-looking-at-whether-brexit-can-be-stopped-1-5796335

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What sort of plan are you hoping for. Sometimes one simply needs to get on with the task in hand. Businesses will be well in advanced in their planning.

How does one get on with the task at hand?