Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

cogito

Filo25 wrote: »

Would there even need to be a deal signed to "Remain"?

We will find out after the ECJ rules on whether Article 50 can be unilaterally withdrawn, if it can it would be entirely up to us.

Realistically the only way "Remain" is an option now I would suspect is to ask the EU to extend Article 50 to resolve the deadlock in Parliament by holding a binding second referendum with 2 or 3 options on there including "Remain", and if Remain won to withdraw the Article 50 notification in that scenario I don't see how the EU deal would be any different to what we have now.

I agree it potentially gets a lot more complex if we need to negotiate re-entry to the EU

The Withdrawal Act specified on its first page that we would leave the EU at 11pm on the 29th March 2019. What are the chances of legislating for and carrying out another referendum before that date?

The date was specifically put into the legislation so that remainers couldn't spin it out indefinitely. Not that they would try to do that, eh?

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

The Withdrawal Act specified on its first page that we would leave the EU at 11pm on the 29th March 2019. What are the chances of legislating for and carrying out another referendum before that date?

The date was specifically put into the legislation so that remainers couldn't spin it out indefinitely. Not that they would try to do that, eh?

Which is why I already said it would need an extension to Article 50 agreed with the EU.

Extending the date in UK law is trivially easy if there is a majority in Parliament in favour of a secodn ref, if there isn't it is irrelevant as there wouldn't be a need to do it anyway

billy2shots

Re house prices.

The time of year doesn't help but Brexit is certainly having an effect on house prices in my neck of the woods.
The fear is putting people off selling and they are sitting tight waiting for things to blow over or have decided to improve their current homes.

The result is a lack of property up for sale. It helped me get a Buyer for mine (8 days marketing before offer) but there is nothing and I mean nothing that interests me south of £600k. EA's and vendors are using the lack of supply to keep prices artificially high.

It's still very early days but I can see this going badly. I had planned to rent to push my sale through but I'm not sure financially or emotionally I can bring myself to do that with 2 young kids.

andrewf75

cogito wrote: »

The Withdrawal Act specified on its first page that we would leave the EU at 11pm on the 29th March 2019. What are the chances of legislating for and carrying out another referendum before that date?

The date was specifically put into the legislation so that remainers couldn't spin it out indefinitely. Not that they would try to do that, eh?

If there was a coherent plan for Brexit they wouldn’t need to. I really don’t think its in anyones interests to spin the transition out any longer than necessary. If there is talk of extensions, its because they’re protecting the interests of the country, something leavers seem to completely disregard.

StevieJ

At least we have parliament doing their job and TM not able to foist any old deal on the British public. Good old Gina and those Traitorous judges.

Moby

Remaining in the EU is much more a 'known risk' than leaving will ever be! The risks and variables of leaving are huge! No matter how you spin it the UK is about to spend years negotiating to make itself less well-off than it otherwise would have been. Is this the first known case in history of a country demanding a worse trade deal than it currently has? From the biggest and richest trade bloc in the world? We now face years of 'negotiation' and one thing is clear, each individual country will have it's own objectives and remember each individual country will be able to veto the trade deal. Spain will want to follow through on Gibraltar. France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands and Demark will be demanding access to British waters for their boats in return for EU market access for British fish and seafood. Greece might demand the return of the Elgin Marbles. Poland is certainly going to be concerned about the rights of Polish citizens in the UK and of course Ireland will be hot on the backstop. Every individual country will be able to veto the trade deal if they have a beef with us. All we can say for certain is that years of uncertainty beckon and that uncertainty will make business planning extremely problematic. Would you invest billions in a new car plant or major manufacturing facility in the UK today if the basis of that decision was free access to the EU single market? Why put ourselves through this. It's so self destructive!

spadoosh

andrewf75 wrote: »

If there was a coherent plan for Brexit they wouldn’t need to. I really don’t think its in anyones interests to spin the transition out any longer than necessary. If there is talk of extensions, its because they’re protecting the interests of the country, something leavers seem to completely disregard.

You keep talking of best interest for the country. Out of curiousity.... what are they?

spadoosh

Moby wrote: »

Remaining in the EU is much more a 'known risk' than leaving will ever be! The risks and variables of leaving are huge! No matter how you spin it the UK is about to spend years negotiating to make itself less well-off than it otherwise would have been. Is this the first known case in history of a country demanding a worse trade deal than it currently has?

No we did the same when we decided to join the EU.

GDP plummeted.

As for the rest of it none of that needs to happen, we can just leave.

The fact that the EU is even entertaining the idea of spain being involved with gibraltar is quite frankly disgusting. Gibraltarians are EU nationals. Eu nationals who have unanimously (as in 98%+) voted in wanting nothing to do with spain at all. Yet the EU are ignoring them. Allowing Spain to suggest they have a say in this matter. Theyre completely disregarding their own citizens and people still wonder why people arent happy with them.

Filo25

spadoosh wrote: »

No we did the same when we decided to join the EU.

GDP plummeted.

As for the rest of it none of that needs to happen, we can just leave.

The fact that the EU is even entertaining the idea of spain being involved with gibraltar is quite frankly disgusting. Gibraltarians are EU nationals. Eu nationals who have unanimously (as in 98%+) voted in wanting nothing to do with spain at all. Yet the EU are ignoring them. Allowing Spain to suggest they have a say in this matter. Theyre completely disregarding their own citizens and people still wonder why people arent happy with them.

They won't be EU citizens for much longer will they, its not as though the UK govt has shown any interest in securing different arrangements for areas that voted Remain (Scotland being the obvious example), so I'm not sure what duty the EU has to look after the interests of inhabitants of an external country over the interests of a member nation.

andrewf75

spadoosh wrote: »

You keep talking of best interest for the country. Out of curiousity.... what are they?

not aware I mentioned it more than once, but best interests as in protecting the country's economic stability.

Even those who claim we should just leave without a deal would soon change their tune once reality hits.

That is of course why the Tory party struggles so much with Brexit, the whole ethos of the party is about stability and pragmatism rather than radical idealism. Yet Brexit is very much the latter! Its incompatible. And even the hardline Brexiteers know that, which is why they haven’t toppled May.