Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

I didn't anticipate Cameron resigning immediately after the referendum.

I didn't anticipate a General Election between then and now which has achieved absolutely nothing in terms of Brexit.

I didn't anticipate the Tories electing a clear Remainer to lead the Brexit era.

I'm afraid it's the reality that we all enter every political election/referendum on the basis of good faith. We don't really have any other option.

In some ways Brexit has been useful. No other recent event has shown up the competence (or complete lack of) of our mainstream politicians.

Maybe they are really just middle layer bureaucrats now, with the key decisions increasingly being made in the EU.

I actually admire Barnier. He has done his job to the letter. He has refused to give an inch.

But Cameron is also a very slimy politician who went to play hard ball with the EU and failed spectacularly. I wouldn't trust him to tell me if it was raining outside.


None of the Leave cheerleaders were particularly trustworthy either.


As I said, I knew they'd make a mess of it, but I'm stunned they've made such a mess of it. It's so bad I'm starting to suspect it's deliberate.

Filo25

Herzlos wrote: »

But Cameron is also a very slimy politician who went to play hard ball with the EU and failed spectacularly. I wouldn't trust him to tell me if it was raining outside.


None of the Leave cheerleaders were particularly trustworthy either.


As I said, I knew they'd make a mess of it, but I'm stunned they've made such a mess of it. It's so bad I'm starting to suspect it's deliberate.

May basically tied her own hands making a mess inevitable with her redlines and messing up the last GE campaign so spectacularly. That is how you end up with this monumental fudge, and to be honest far all the talk of certainty this withdrawal agreement really settles very little with regards to the future relationship.

A Labour party lead by Corbyn was never likely to back anything she came up with, so she was dependant on keeping her governing coalition together plus maybe at best 15-20 Labour rebels. With the wide spectrum of opinion within the Tory party, that needs a hefty majority to make it work.

That said I'm not ruling out that she may get this through Parliament at the second attempt, I don't think there is any doubt that she is going to fall well short on the first vote.

There was never an "easy" deal to be had here though, inflated expectations of what was achievable after the referendum made that inevitable.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

I actually admire Barnier. He has done his job to the letter. He has refused to give an inch.

Just a puppet though. Very easy to simply say no. No real authority either.

andrewf75

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

It's remainers whose logic fails here. There are no "kids".
There's no mortgage either BTW.

Thats just ridiculous. Whatever analogy you choose, we clearly have many shared interests and a need for continued ties given 40 years of integration and the NI situation. If you want to "walk away" then address the issues that arise from that. Funnily enough no Brexiteer ever faces up to that, hence the current farce.

Do I trust the EU? Sadly much more than I trust the UK government these days. Yes they can be inflexible but you know where you stand with them.

andrewf75

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

so far I have seen nothing to suggest that they will uphold the will of the people.

Because upholding the will of the people in the way you interpret it is fundamentally not compatible with acting in the interests of the country, simple as that! But no-one should have ever interpreted Brexit as anything other than leaving the EU.
I’ve never been keen on a second vote, but the more I hear leavers saying that Brexit is only Brexit if we cut all ties, the more I reconsider.

ukcarper

Lungboy wrote: »

That's why i qualified it with "might", the ECJ could rule on what happens if we revoke A50 as well as whether we can revoke it unilaterally as they are so intertwined.

I would have thought they could only rule on legalities.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

"As they were before" is gone. The world has changed in the 2 years since we voted. We can't go back to 2016 are more than we can go back to 1973.

Yes that was the point I was making as soon as we voted to leave things changed so if we our going to stay the terms must be spelt out.

kabayiri

ukcarper wrote: »

Yes that was the point I was making as soon as we voted to leave things changed so if we our going to stay the terms must be spelt out.

Do you really trust this political shower to be completely transparent on this question?

I for one do not.

They will mutter some vague assurances about good long term relations with the EU, and the EU politicos will be equally non-descript in their replies.

Meanwhile Spain would wait 5 minutes before the Remain deal was signed, only then for it to pipe up about Gibraltar being the deal breaker once again.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

Do you really trust this political shower to be completely transparent on this question?

I for one do not.

They will mutter some vague assurances about good long term relations with the EU, and the EU politicos will be equally non-descript in their replies.

Meanwhile Spain would wait 5 minutes before the Remain deal was signed, only then for it to pipe up about Gibraltar being the deal breaker once again.

Would there even need to be a deal signed to "Remain"?

We will find out after the ECJ rules on whether Article 50 can be unilaterally withdrawn, if it can it would be entirely up to us.

Realistically the only way "Remain" is an option now I would suspect is to ask the EU to extend Article 50 to resolve the deadlock in Parliament by holding a binding second referendum with 2 or 3 options on there including "Remain", and if Remain won to withdraw the Article 50 notification in that scenario I don't see how the EU deal would be any different to what we have now.

I agree it potentially gets a lot more complex if we need to negotiate re-entry to the EU

wintersunshine

Anybody who thinks EU standards and regulations are superior to the US needs to watch this week's episode of Panorama on medical devices- you'll never want to go near a European hospital again....