Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Sure, we've humiliated ourselves on the world stage and in the EU, but I'm not sure the EU will really be able to do much to weaken us further or have any appetite for punishing us. If we can withdraw A50 and stay in on the same terms we should be pretty comfortable. We could always leave later if we figured out what it was and decided it benefitted us.


But the current EU deal is in the past, our options going forward are:


1. WTO
2. May's deal, which sucks but is the best we're going to get from outside
3. Whatever terms we can rejoin/remain in.


3 will definitely be better than 1 or 2. It may be worse than what we threw away, but it's already gone. We need to take the best of the options available to us.

I'm not sure that that's the case, also I don't see how we have humiliated ourselves except maybe elected MPs refusing to acknowledge the feelings of thier constituents, although I don't think that is that unusual in Europe or the rest of the world.

ukcarper

andrewf75 wrote: »

Its pretty obvious the EU has no inclination to punish us. They have been very accommodating so far and will continue IMO, what frustrates them is the lack of clarity in what we want. They are weakened by an important player leaving so I actually think they would have us back on current terms if we say we want that. But I think the 2nd referendum would need to be won quite convincingly to avoid major problems domestically. And it wouldn't be. As before there would be a few per cent in it.

I don't think it's a matter of punishing us but reducing our influence and removing perks that other members do not have and they do not want us to have .

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
This is going to be a mess whatever happens. We could have our own Trump anyway, or the Tories could destroy what's left of their credibility.

I caught a stat on LBC earlier, when they were discussing populism across Europe.

Go back 20 years. Under 20m people in Europe ruled by populist/right wing government.

Jump forward to now : 170m.

The rise in populism / right wing politics / reactionary politics (call it what you will) is clearly outside of Brexit.

The masses have, by and large, been asked to take on the burden created by the GFC. Now it is biting into their own lives, they don't particularly like it.

If centre ground politicians can not offer an answer, they are basically sitting ducks to the extremists on both side.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

The masses have, by and large, been asked to take on the burden created by the GFC. Now it is biting into their own lives, they don't particularly like it.

Little doubt that QE has benefited those already with assets, i.e. property and stocks and shares. While low interest rates penalise those with a lower level of savings.

kabayiri

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't think it's a matter of punishing us but reducing our influence and removing perks that other members do not have and they do not want us to have .

I think we need to think wider than just UK.

IMO only.

The EU have had plans for much greater integration, and also more powers from the centre. I linked a clip from Verhofstadt where he says this in clear unambiguous terms.

What will happen? Well....I suspect a typical Eurofudge arrangement.

We could easily see a 2 speed EU, with those in the Eurozone as part of the inner core.

Countries who are lukewarm, like Poland, Hungary, UK...we will be in the outer core.

It's a long term political method of marginalization.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

I think we need to think wider than just UK.

IMO only.

The EU have had plans for much greater integration, and also more powers from the centre. I linked a clip from Verhofstadt where he says this in clear unambiguous terms.

What will happen? Well....I suspect a typical Eurofudge arrangement.

We could easily see a 2 speed EU, with those in the Eurozone as part of the inner core.

Countries who are lukewarm, like Poland, Hungary, UK...we will be in the outer core.

It's a long term political method of marginalization.

Personally I think a core and periphery for Europe (as opposed to a 2-speed which implies everyone is getting to the same destination at different speeds) makes absolute sense, if we had chosen to remain we would still have retained our veto and influence over the areas which mattered to us.

We would hardly have been alone in the periphery either,

andrewf75

Filo25 wrote: »

Personally I think a core and periphery for Europe (as opposed to a 2-speed which implies everyone is getting to the same destination at different speeds) makes absolute sense, if we had chosen to remain we would still have retained our veto and influence over the areas which mattered to us.

We would hardly have been alone in the periphery either,

Agree it does make sense and hopefully it can still be an option for us to remain on the periphery rather than in complete isolation even with Brexit.

Backbiter

buglawton wrote: »

And I've just had an epiphany: 'No deal' is fake news.
There is: May's deal and WTO deal.

No such thing as 'No deal'.

May's mantra has always been 'No deal (ie WTO) is better than a bad deal'. Given that the deal on the table is her deal, which she obviously doesn't think is a bad deal', her mantra no longer applies.

Surely, therefore, her new mantra should be 'her deal or no Brexit', as no deal is not better than her deal. Amber Rudd seemed to argue this morning, when saying Parliament would never vote for no deal.

the new work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd appeared to rule out the option of a no-deal Brexit.

She told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "It's my view that parliament, the House of Commons, will stop no deal. There isn't a majority in the House of Commons for that to take place."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46284310

StevieJ

How times change, remember when Cameron was telling the Scots that the only way they could be a member of the EU was as a member of the UK :-)

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Spain would have no objection to Scotland rejoining the European Union as an independent nation, as long as the secession process from the United Kingdom was legally binding, Spanish foreign minister Josep Borrell said on Tuesday.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/spain-not-oppose-future-independent-scotland-rejoining-eu-175020945.html

Enterprise_1701C

Filo25 wrote: »

Personally I think a core and periphery for Europe (as opposed to a 2-speed which implies everyone is getting to the same destination at different speeds) makes absolute sense, if we had chosen to remain we would still have retained our veto and influence over the areas which mattered to us.

We would hardly have been alone in the periphery either,

There is no reeason to think we would retain a veto, or that anyone would, especially as Juncker is planning on doing away with national veto powers. We would have no way to avoid being dragged into the us of e.