Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Moby

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

IMHO that situation of good labour MP's not winning enough support within the labour party is just what's happening with remainer MP's in the Tory party.
I've said before in another thread, quite frankly it's disgraceful that Brexit was not allowed to be overseen by MP's and civil servants that either actually agreed with the vote or were themselves pro-leave.

There's not enough of them, that's why they're called the lunatic fringe. They can't even get rid of May, never mind manage Brexit.

Lungboy

Joan_number_one wrote: »

So the Spanish PM was lying when the Independent showed a video of him saying that Spain and the UK had reached an agreement over Gibraltar which would lead to no problems over a Brexit deal only a day or two ago then?

Spain PM now saying they won't sign off on the draft as it stands

gfplux

As a remainer I believe the best deal for Britain is to remain in the EU.

However that may not be possible so I have to be pragmatic (or fatalist) and except that the withdrawal/transition deal is better than the alternative which is nothing signed at the end of March 2019.
There are people on both sides of the channel who are prepared to except the damage of the latter but that might be driven by thoughts it will not touch them.

andrewf75

gfplux wrote: »

As a remainer I believe the best deal for Britain is to remain in the EU.
.

I'm inclined to agree, but also worry about the reaction to that from leave voters. We'd quite possibly end up with our version of Trump in power (Farage? Johnson? Rees Mogg?)

Too many remainers seem to think this is a simple way of fixing things. The truth is there is no easy way out of this mess.

ukcarper

andrewf75 wrote: »

I'm inclined to agree, but also worry about the reaction to that from leave voters. We'd quite possibly end up with our version of Trump in power (Farage? Johnson? Rees Mogg?)

Too many remainers seem to think this is a simple way of fixing things. The truth is there is no easy way out of this mess.

The other thing if we did remain I can't see it being on same terms as before even if they initially they were.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

The other thing if we did remain I can't see it being on same terms as before even if they initially they were.

The ECJ rules on that very subject this week I think. So we'll know for certain if we can just withdraw A50 and return to where we were.



Curious that Scotland proposed the inquiry and Westminster attempted (unsuccesfully) to veto it.

andrewf75 wrote: »

I'm inclined to agree, but also worry about the reaction to that from leave voters. We'd quite possibly end up with our version of Trump in power (Farage? Johnson? Rees Mogg?)

Too many remainers seem to think this is a simple way of fixing things. The truth is there is no easy way out of this mess.

This is going to be a mess whatever happens. We could have our own Trump anyway, or the Tories could destroy what's left of their credibility.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

The ECJ rules on that very subject this week I think. So we'll know for certain if we can just withdraw A50 and return to where we were.



Curious that Scotland proposed the inquiry and Westminster attempted (unsuccesfully) to veto it.







This is going to be a mess whatever happens. We could have our own Trump anyway, or the Tories could destroy what's left of their credibility.

Even if ECJ say we can unilaterally withdraw article 50 that does not mean our position will be the same it might be initially but I believe we will be in a weak position and E.U. will strive to make it weaker.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

Even if ECJ say we can unilaterally withdraw article 50 that does not mean our position will be the same it might be initially but I believe we will be in a weak position and E.U. will strive to make it weaker.

Sure, we've humiliated ourselves on the world stage and in the EU, but I'm not sure the EU will really be able to do much to weaken us further or have any appetite for punishing us. If we can withdraw A50 and stay in on the same terms we should be pretty comfortable. We could always leave later if we figured out what it was and decided it benefitted us.


But the current EU deal is in the past, our options going forward are:


1. WTO
2. May's deal, which sucks but is the best we're going to get from outside
3. Whatever terms we can rejoin/remain in.


3 will definitely be better than 1 or 2. It may be worse than what we threw away, but it's already gone. We need to take the best of the options available to us.

andrewf75

Herzlos wrote: »

Sure, we've humiliated ourselves on the world stage and in the EU, but I'm not sure the EU will really be able to do much to weaken us further or have any appetite for punishing us.

Its pretty obvious the EU has no inclination to punish us. They have been very accommodating so far and will continue IMO, what frustrates them is the lack of clarity in what we want. They are weakened by an important player leaving so I actually think they would have us back on current terms if we say we want that. But I think the 2nd referendum would need to be won quite convincingly to avoid major problems domestically. And it wouldn't be. As before there would be a few per cent in it.

Thrugelmir

andrewf75 wrote: »

Its pretty obvious the EU has no inclination to punish us.

Nor will they concede any ground should any other member state wish to leave the club. Which is part of the current quagmire.

EU struggling to agree on a future budget. No great surprise. Given the pressures at national levels.