Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Joan_Number_1

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier pushed for the EU to ensure the UK cannot pull back from the Article 50 Brexit process without the consent of other European countries.

Mr Barnier successfully pressed for the European Parliament’s formal negotiating stance to include a line clarifying that Britain cannot halt the process without the approval of the 27 member states.

From various sources including The Independent on 8th April 2017

Perks will stop if UK ends up staying in EU, says Guy Verhofstadt

June 2017

So it looks like remainers are clutching straws if they think there's any way that Britain would stay in the EU.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Only direct statements from a higher up person in the EU about our ongoing status would provide me with any assurance.

Who do you count as a higher up person in the EU, if you're discounting Barnier (it's negotiator) and Tusk (it's president). Merkel?


The guy who wrote A50 intended it to be withdrawable (based on what he's said), and there's nothing in there that discounts it. It's also clearly an intention to leave, rather than leaving, as per the Article itself;

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.

But as mentioned, the ECJ should be ruling on this soon, will the ECJ statement have sufficient weight?




As an aside, why would you insist that "Remain" is on the same terms as now? Surely as long as "Remain" is better than the other options, it's the one to vote for?

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

I was hoping a Brexit vote would shake things up a little, but even the most ardent anarchist could not have imagined things getting to this stage !

There's a good chance of the Tory party itself splitting in the not so distant future.

I'm surprised that you're surprised!

buglawton

After a string of cabinet resignations this morning, French PM says "the removal of Theresa May as prime minister would increase the risk of no Brexit deal being reached, which would cause very serious problems for France, especially around trade across the Channel"

er... well, why didn't the EU negotiators offer a more plausible deal then?

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

I'm surprised that you're surprised!

Well, I think few people really knew the limitations of UK politicians prior to this whole Brexit business.

If QMV takes hold in the EU, then it will be the EU core which increasingly calls the shots.

I'm off to Poland soon, so have been in touch with some people over there about plans. They reminded me that Poland had it's biggest Independence day march last weekend. Maybe the EU will not have things all their own way.

Herzlos

I'll admit I knew our politicians were going to be bad and that the Tories would tear themselves apart over it, but I had no idea quite how bad they were (on all sides). In their defense though I'd expect anyone doing the impossible to fail; I just thought some would have had enough spine to acknowledge that.

buglawton wrote: »

er... well, why didn't the EU negotiators offer a more plausible deal then?

Such as? I'm not actually sure what they could have offered beyond the fixed menu options we got on day 1.

kabayiri

buglawton wrote: »

After a string of cabinet resignations this morning, French PM says "the removal of Theresa May as prime minister would increase the risk of no Brexit deal being reached, which would cause very serious problems for France, especially around trade across the Channel"

er... well, why didn't the EU negotiators offer a more plausible deal then?

Ahh, so our perceived global incompetence was in fact a carefully orchestrated smoke screen?

Those politico-boffins...they've done it again. Hurrah!

movilogo

Summary of TM's deal

1. All EU rules apply during transition period.
2. Transition can be extended forever.
3. UK needs EU's permission to get out of transition period.

Hence, UK will remain in EU forever. Who would have thought?

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

Well, I think few people really knew the limitations of UK politicians prior to this whole Brexit business.

I don’t think it’s the limitations of the politicians, it’s just that delivering Brexit without crossing one or more of the “red lines” or causing major disruption to the economy is impossible. You can’t have everything, there are clear and very tough choices to be made. Yet May and others have promised everyone everything and refused to make those choices!
No surprise at all that it’s all unravelling.

Herzlos

Exactly; "a Brexit" is easy, but the one promised by the Leave campaign and May tied herself too was impossible - the red lines were contradictory and left no room to maneuver.

Joan_Number_1 wrote: »

From various sources including The Independent on 8th April 2017

June 2017

So it looks like remainers are clutching straws if they think there's any way that Britain would stay in the EU.

WTO Brexit it is then, followed by grovelling to rejoin. Well done guys.