Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Lungboy

And Suella Braverman and a PPS.

A_Pandiculation

mayonnaise wrote: »

1. will never get through parliament
2. is falling apart as we speak

So option 3 it is.

:rotfl: Somebody's having funny dreams again. :rotfl:

Herzlos wrote: »

The 3 options in front of us are:
1. Full "North Korea" WTO Brexit.
2. Mays "Vassalage" Brexit.
3. "That was a silly idea" no Brexit.

1 will be what MP's will vote for because the UK voted to leave, otherwise they know their political careers are finished.
2 is already dead in the water.
3 won't happen, see #1. Also, all the EU27 must vote to keep us in. I ask you, is that really likely?
:T

Herzlos

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

1 will be what MP's will vote for because the UK voted to leave, otherwise they know their political careers are finished.

Their careers are finished if they vote for WTO, too.

Also, all the EU27 must vote to keep us in.

No they don't. We haven't left yet, only produced an intent to leave, we can withdrawn. At least Barnier, Macron and Tusk have hinted at that option.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
No they don't. We haven't left yet, only produced an intent to leave, we can withdrawn. At least Barnier, Macron and Tusk have hinted at that option.

Do you personally feel confident that we would remain on similar terms to what we have now?

bugslet

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

3 won't happen, see #1. Also, all the EU27 must vote to keep us in. I ask you, is that really likely?
:T

Putting aside that they don't....if they did have to vote, of course they would. They want the money.

A_Pandiculation

bugslet wrote: »

Putting aside that they don't....if they did have to vote, of course they would. They want the money.

I think everybody knows that if the UK said it wanted to stay there would be objectors in the EU27 and in the end it would be voted on. They wouldn't want our Brexiteers encouraging their populists.
But that's irrelevant anyway because as kayabiri suggests, there's no way the UK would vote to stay in if the EU terms alter in any way from what we've had. Will we really see the EU write into legislation that the UK will never be forced into accepting the Euro for example? Unlikely at best.

Herzlos

Some would be unhappy about the amount of time we've wasted and trouble caused, but they can't kick us out (since we haven't left)

kabayiri wrote: »

Do you personally feel confident that we would remain on similar terms to what we have now?

Absolutely 100% confident that if we withdrew A50 we'd be on exactly the same terms we are now.


If we leave and then rejoin, I'm pretty (90%) confident we'll be treated as a new entrant and will lose all of our special treatment.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
Absolutely 100% confident that if we withdrew A50 we'd be on exactly the same terms we are now.
...

During the last referendum campaign, I suggested that the EU should have a voice at least, and it was given short shrift on here.

Only direct statements from a higher up person in the EU about our ongoing status would provide me with any assurance.

...and I don't think the EU27 member states, would give someone like Juncker the mandate to say these things.

In fact, Juncker is on record as stating that he prefers arrangements behind closed doors.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

During the last referendum campaign, I suggested that the EU should have a voice at least, and it was given short shrift on here.

Only direct statements from a higher up person in the EU about our ongoing status would provide me with any assurance.

...and I don't think the EU27 member states, would give someone like Juncker the mandate to say these things.

In fact, Juncker is on record as stating that he prefers arrangements behind closed doors.

The ECJ ruling on Article 50 should clarify things in the near future (assuming the government isn't successful in blocking that)

Filo25

Sounds like Theresa May is getting brutalised in Parliament today