Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

kabayiri

StevieJ wrote: »

Have I got this correct? She came here to live off benefits but we didn't let her (or indeed were not obliged to). System seems to be working well.

There was a loop hole allowing people to set up self employed, by just selling Big Issue for 6 hours a week.

The work providers were promoting this as a way of people supplementing income through Tax Credits.

It's like that Romanian scrap metal merchant who was never there, at the business. Migrant and local workers, they all get to know about the latest tricks.

StevieJ

kabayiri wrote: »

There was a loop hole allowing people to set up self employed, by just selling Big Issue for 6 hours a week.

The work providers were promoting this as a way of people supplementing income through Tax Credits.

It's like that Romanian scrap metal merchant who was never there, at the business. Migrant and local workers, they all get to know about the latest tricks.

Up to us to close loop holes and put our own house in order.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Organised gangs have moved in on the Big Issue business anyway.

I won't buy it anymore.

Agree. That's the big issue in our area. Shame as the principle and aim was worth supporting. Though I've seen no sellers for some time now in our area. I'm wondering if that's the result of a police clamp down. As has been highlighted at briefings.

Moby

UK expected to lag behind the EU

The EC predicts that Britain’s economy faces a tough few years.
UK growth is forecast at just 1.3% this year, and 1.2% in 2019 and 2020.
That’s the joint lowest for any (current) EU country next year, alongside Italy.
Germany, in contrast, is expected to grow by 1.7% this year, 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2020

Carl31

Moby wrote: »

UK expected to lag behind the EU

The EC predicts that Britain’s economy faces a tough few years.
UK growth is forecast at just 1.3% this year, and 1.2% in 2019 and 2020.
That’s the joint lowest for any (current) EU country next year, alongside Italy.
Germany, in contrast, is expected to grow by 1.7% this year, 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2020

You would expect the EC to predict positive things for the UK post Brexit?

kabayiri

StevieJ wrote: »

Up to us to close loop holes and put our own house in order.

Yeah, we should, but I think it gets increasingly complex when you widen all the use cases to cover a 500m sample set.

People are often quicker to adapt to make the most of rules, and social media further enhances this.

I can actually understand why the EU core would want to be able to set more rules from the centre, not less. I'm not comfortable with this, but I understand why they would want the ability.

Moby

Carl31 wrote: »

You would expect the EC to predict positive things for the UK post Brexit?

Yep predictions for our future by brexiteers are far more realistic aren't they!

Thrugelmir

Originally Posted by Moby
UK expected to lag behind the EU

The EC predicts that Britain’s economy faces a tough few years.
UK growth is forecast at just 1.3% this year, and 1.2% in 2019 and 2020.
That’s the joint lowest for any (current) EU country next year, alongside Italy.
Germany, in contrast, is expected to grow by 1.7% this year, 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2020

The Eurozone still has the benefit of QE following through.

EC's figures differ somewhat to those produced by the OBR.

Let's watch events in Italy unfold. Does have a bigger bearing on the EC than Brexit.

Moby

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The Eurozone still has the benefit of QE following through.

EC's figures differ somewhat to those produced by the OBR.

Let's watch events in Italy unfold. Does have a bigger bearing on the EC than Brexit.

True and the OBR forecast is more optimistic as you say but don't forget their forecast is based on a frictionless trade deal scenario if we brexit no deal who knows!

A_Pandiculation

Moby wrote: »

True and the OBR forecast is more optimistic as you say but don't forget their forecast is based on a frictionless trade deal scenario if we brexit no deal who knows!

Not according to this it isn't even if all these predictions are nothing more than crystal ball gazing.

"Things may turn out to be not quite as gloomy as the OBR’s forecasts imply. Unless the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 without a deal, there must be a good chance that economic growth will turn out better than the OBR’s forecasts suggest – the Chancellor’s so-called “double deal dividend”," says Ruth Gregory, an economist at Capital Economics.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/10222-office-for-budget-responsibility-upgrades-u-k-growth-forecasts-after-budget-giveaway

Then you can take into consideration the likes of this.
"The economic upturn in Germany is weakening, according to the country’s leading council of experts, who have lowered their outlook. Uncertainty about global economics was part of the group’s reasoning."
"Notable drop in growth:
GDP is expected to rise by 1.6 percent in 2018, rather than the 2.3 percent predicted in March.
A GDP rise of 1.5 percent is expected for 2019, down from a prediction of 1.8 percent growth."
"The group also recommended minimizing the effects of Brexit on both the economies of the EU and the UK."
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-economic-sages-lower-growth-forecast/a-46191765

For the UK https://www.statista.com/statistics/375195/gdp-growth-forecast-comparison-uk/