Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Thrugelmir

Originally Posted by Moby
True and the OBR forecast is more optimistic as you say but don't forget their forecast is based on a frictionless trade deal scenario if we brexit no deal who knows!

What's the EC basing their forecast on. When Brittany Ferries report a lack of bookings for next year. The outcome of the Brexit negotiations do appear to have consequences that are going to spread far and wide. Not just lorries that are going to be held up.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Yeah, we should, but I think it gets increasingly complex when you widen all the use cases to cover a 500m sample set.

Why? The rules apply evenly to everyone, so the number of people exploiting a loophole has no bearing on how you close it. It does mean there are more people looking for loopholes but I think that's academic.

kabayiri wrote: »

There was a loop hole allowing people to set up self employed, by just selling Big Issue for 6 hours a week.

What was the loophole? That by working the 6 hours they can claim working tax credits to top up salary? That hardly sounds like being self sufficient so it should be a trivial one to close off.

Herzlos

lisyloo wrote: »

Do you have a link.
The one I loked up said he'd be paid £3 million since becoming an MP
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6059413/What-Jeremy-Corbyns-net-worth.html

He's also been an MP for 44 years, which works out at about £68k/year on average. That's a pretty respectable salary but hardly something to crow about. As said it's nothing compared to the likes of Reese-Mogg.


Any salary sounds like a huge figure when you span it over a career that long. Take the £26k average salary (I think, exact figure isn't relevant) is £1.1m over 44 years.

A_Pandiculation

Herzlos wrote: »

He's also been an MP for 44 years, which works out at about £68k/year on average. That's a pretty respectable salary but hardly something to crow about. As said it's nothing compared to the likes of Reese-Mogg.


Any salary sounds like a huge figure when you span it over a career that long. Take the £26k average salary (I think, exact figure isn't relevant) is £1.1m over 44 years.

Oh how I wish that I too could work for 44 years earning 68k/year without spending so much as a bean so that I could have £3 million in the bank! Mind you, he doesn't seem to spend much on clothes for a start.

Herzlos

The article said he earned £3m whilst employed as an MP. Which he did but that's just an example of using a big number out of context to cause outrage.

Rabb admits he didn't understand importance of Dover / Calais for trade. How can we expect people to get us a good deal If they don't know the bleeding obvious?

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/dominic-raab-admits-he-did-not-understand-how-reliant-uk-trade-is-on-dover-calais-crossing/

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Care to clarify how much easier it is for an SME to find a market for products and services across much of Europe. Which initself is very rural. What type of business is the SME likely to be in as well. To warrant dealing with customers across Europe.

Are you seriously arguing that point or trolling?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524847/bis-16-230-smes-supply-chains-exporters.pdf

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

Oh how I wish that I too could work for 44 years earning 68k/year without spending so much as a bean so that I could have £3 million in the bank! Mind you, he doesn't seem to spend much on clothes for a start.

Capital gains from investments over that period should wipe out his expenses.

Carl31 wrote: »

You would expect the EC to predict positive things for the UK post Brexit?

Reese Mogg says it will be 50 years before there is a positive benefit of brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2018/jul/24/two-50-or-100-years-when-do-leavers-think-brexit-will-pay-off

"Nigel Farage never promised that Brexit “would be a huge success”, he said on LBC radio. “I never said it would be a beneficial thing to leave and everyone would be better off,” said Farage – who has repeatedly said we would be better off – “just that we would be self-governing.”"

With both the leavers and the EU predicting that it's going to be bad, you REALLY should believe it. Anyone still clinging on to the power of positive thoughts will have a rude awakening.

You will be in the thoughts and prayers of the elite as they make money while you lose out, they won't give you any money though. You wanted out of the EU, you'll get it in spades.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's always been the ability to move and work abroad. Will be in the future. Total myth to suggest otherwise.

It's a lie to suggest that the ability to move to the EU for work post brexit is going to be anywhere near as easy as it is now. But I suspect you know that.

cogito

Originally Posted by Thrugelmir
There's always been the ability to move and work abroad. Will be in the future. Total myth to suggest otherwise

It's a lie to suggest that the ability to move to the EU for work post brexit is going to be anywhere near as easy as it is now. But I suspect you know that.

Wow! And you had the nerve to accuse kabayiri of strawmanning.

gfplux

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Some EU citizens may arrive with a job, but the ones around here do not integrate and have no interest in learning English, they live in ghettos and work cash in hand, sending the vast majority of money "home", injecting very little into the economy. They are generally builders/plumbers.

There is a Romanian (she told me her nationality) woman, well, girl really who sells the Big Issue near us. She actually speaks English and told me her sob story. She arrived here and was not immediately placed in a luxury home (she had been informed everyone arriving was given the keys to a nice house), and was shocked to learn she might actually have to work to earn a living. She moans to anyone that listens about the injustice of actually having to do as she is doing. I did point out that no-one was forcing her to do it, she could go home to her parents, but she is actually earning enough to send money home to them. She has no intention of spending money here, she actually intended to live off the state and send any money she could earn under the table home.

We need to block the black market economy. And yes, I know English use it as well, but maybe they wouldn't have to if they could earn a reasonable amount normally, and didn't have to compete with Eastern Europeanss charging considerably less because they live 15 to a house and have very few overheads.

I have spent quite some time over the years discussing with many different people why Britain is such an attractive destination for all sorts of immigrants.
This is not the thread to get into that.
BUT
Many Brits perhaps 52% of them that voted in a distant referendum kept saying over and over that immigrants arriving in Britain were.....and here you can pick and mix.
Would immediately on arrival be

Given free housing
Given a weekly income
Would have immediate access to social security payments
Would have immediate access to free medical care even cosmetic surgery
Would be given more than any British citizen.
Etc etc etc.

I suspect repeating this continaly for decades might have influenced some. Just be careful what lies you repeat.

Enterprise_1701C

gfplux wrote: »

I have spent quite some time over the years discussing with many different people why Britain is such an attractive destination for all sorts of immigrants.
This is not the thread to get into that.
BUT
Many Brits perhaps 52% of them that voted in a distant referendum kept saying over and over that immigrants arriving in Britain were.....and here you can pick and mix.
Would immediately on arrival be

Given free housing
Given a weekly income
Would have immediate access to social security payments
Would have immediate access to free medical care even cosmetic surgery
Would be given more than any British citizen.
Etc etc etc.

I suspect repeating this continaly for decades might have influenced some. Just be careful what lies you repeat.

She did get free housing, just not the luxury house she was expecting, she was put in a bedsit (which apparently is classed as homelessness) as she is single. And she was given subsistence payments, she has not needed the doctor as far as I know but I am pretty sure they would not turn her away. Her complaint was that she expected to be treated so much better and handed everything on a plate, not have to work etc.

If I were to move to a new country I would ensure I had somewhere to live and some form of income. I would not go over to another country and expect to be handed everything. We have to change the view of the UK, we have to heavily publicise that people should ensure they have work and a place to live before they come here wherever they come from.

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

I have spent quite some time over the years discussing with many different people why Britain is such an attractive destination for all sorts of immigrants.
This is not the thread to get into that.
BUT
Many Brits perhaps 52% of them that voted in a distant referendum kept saying over and over that immigrants arriving in Britain were.....and here you can pick and mix.
Would immediately on arrival be

Given free housing
Given a weekly income
Would have immediate access to social security payments
Would have immediate access to free medical care even cosmetic surgery
Would be given more than any British citizen.
Etc etc etc.

I suspect repeating this continaly for decades might have influenced some. Just be careful what lies you repeat.

The attractiveness of the U.K. to immigrants is well known and real. The argument you put forward (I think!) that benefits are exaggerated and that immigrants are somehow doing us a favour by deigning to choose us over other nations is somewhat hackneyed now.
In the U.K. low paid work is plentiful and is made highly lucrative when you are able as an immigrant to access immediately in work benefits and free healthcare etc. All accessible without any prior monetary contributions that other nations insist upon.
Couple that with the draw of the English language, the innate welcoming attitudes of the English and the U.K. being a generally pleasant place to live and work then you go some way into understanding the draw.
When I voted to Leave it wasn’t because I was duped by lies, it was because I had firmly held concerns re. the democratic deficit incumbent in some EU institutions and a desire to end the suppression of wages caused by unfettered inward EU migration.