Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Thrugelmir

masterwilde wrote: »

Now as for funding EU, last couple of years we have collectively given less to the EU than we have to Northern Ireland.

NI is part of the UK.

hildosaver

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

There is no international law stating that hard borders are necessary.
If the UK says there will be no border on UK soil then there is absolutely nothing the EU or the RoI can do about it .......... except put one there themselves on EU/RoI soil of they want to.
Who's problem does it become then?

There are posts galore in this forum about the so-called "Irish border problem".
The general consensus seems to be that it's just another EU excuse.

So is your argument that if ROI or EU have to erect a hard border instead of the UK then there is no problem? Is that honestly what you are saying? Who's problem does it become? The same bloody problem for the same people obviously - nothing changes as it is the worst possible outcome for Northern Ireland if the UK/ROI/EU/Santa Claus erects the hard border checks. Who gives a toss who erects it? If there is a hard border it destroys the GFA - can you please answer the question that was put to you - how does the Irish border get solved?

Herzlos

It's still the same problem for the same people, but it allows the problem to be blamed on the "bad EU" and not on Brexit. It seems to the standard Tory operating procedure at the moment, and makes perfect sense if you're more concerned about "winning" than the lives of other people.

Moby

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

If it is a big cost - and that's a big "IF" - at least the people will have chosen.
Unlike the costs associated with the EU, not all of which are purely financial.

I doubt if anyone voted to be poorer.....they were lied to!

fatbeetle

The WTO does not tell countries what to do other than to keep their promises (abide by the WTO agreements and their WTO commitments)
Even when countries break their WTO promises, there is no “confrontation” with “the WTO” and least of all with “WTO officials”
The WTO is member-driven. If in the future other WTO countries believe the UK is violating an agreement, it is they, not the WTO bureaucracy, who will act. They can do so by complaining in a WTO meeting or filing a legal challenge in WTO dispute settlement
Since there is no WTO rule requiring governments to secure their borders, failing to do so would not break any specific agreement
Where the UK might run into trouble is under the WTO’s non-discrimination rules, particularly “most-favoured-nation” treatment (MFN), which means treating one’s trading partners equally

The idea is that the UK and EU could cite national security as a justification for breaking the non-discrimination rule at the Irish border.

London and Brussels (and Dublin) could seek a “waiver” in the WTO for the purpose, citing security exception clauses such as Article 21 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

For this to be agreed in the WTO, at the very least both Britain and the EU would have to agree. It would probably have to apply only to Northern Ireland, not the whole United Kingdom, meaning there would probably have to be controls between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

The national security argument would be undermined if controls were dropped only on one side of the border. The UK and Ireland would need to confirm that they were both acting in the security interests of the Good Friday Agreement, which they both signed. Otherwise, acting unilaterally would put the UK into conflict with WTO non-discrimination rules.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Interesting reading...

Moby

Arklight wrote: »

Do you have even the faintest understanding as to what a negotiated national border does; and why?

It's amazing how some people can fail to see the need for a border in Ireland if there is no trade deal while it's the very thing that matters to them most in relation to the EU and UK!

.string.

On the Irish Border

In my view it's an artificial, problematic perhaps and not easy, but born out of the Irish wanting a scenario which levers N.Ireland away from the UK and which also protects Irish Trade with the UK. A classic case of having cakes and eating them.

Also the EU enjoy using it as a form of blackmail to retain the UK as a captive market.

It should not even be a matter of condition for an agreement.

But without goodwill on the side to the Irsh/EU side I don't see it being solved except with May's plan, or one like it. Sh is right to stick with that unless the EU budge.

There is a case for stating what we would do in the event of a No Deal in such a way to write it large for the Irish to wise up.

For example


People
The UK will make it manditory for all foreign nationals to carry a form of national identity document which must have a valid visa to enter the UK. Irish nationals will also have to carry identity documents but not need a visa.

Note: Mandatory Identity Cards are required in some countries of the EU.

Goods

Prohibit all outgoing and incoming goods between the Irish Republic and the UK which pass through Irish or Northern Irish Ports (including airports). Stringent penalties apply.

Goods berween Ireland and Northern Ireland as current arrangements.

Moby

The EU currently has trade agreements:
> In place or partly in place with 83 countries (including Japan, Canada, China and India);
> Pending agreements with eight countries, and;
> Negotiations in progress with with a further 21.
All of these will vanish when we leave and we shall start negotiating our own.
Can any Brexit supporter explain what aspect of these trade deals the UK will improve upon when they negotiate their own trade deal and how they can guarantee that those bits of the deals that work for us now will not get watered down a a consequence of the UK having a smaller economy than the EU to bargain with when we start negotiating from scratch?

Herzlos

.string. wrote: »

People
The UK will make it manditory for all foreign nationals to carry a form of national identity document which must have a valid visa to enter the UK. Irish nationals will also have to carry identity documents but not need a visa.

I don't think the GFA says anything about ID, but how do you check that ID without, well, a border? Or if borderless, do you expect everyone in NI or mainland UK to have ID to check? Just within a few miles of this "not a border"? Just for the ferry crossings?

Goods


Prohibit all outgoing and incoming goods between the Irish Republic and the UK which pass through Irish or Northern Irish Ports (including airports). Stringent penalties apply.

Goods berween Ireland and Northern Ireland as current arrangements.

So you mean here, that anything going from Eire to the UK must go directly and not via NI? How do you enforce that without one of those border things?
What impact does that have on companies that already move stuff along that route?
Does that include everything someone carries on them? Say, someone in NI buys something from Eire as a gift for someone in England. Must they then courier it via Eire? How do you enforce it?




No-one has said an open border means you can't have rules, but what we're saying is that there's no way to enforce those rules without violating the GFA. That's got nothing to do with the EU.


I do find it amusing that since Brexit was all about protecting our borders with Europe to keep people out, that Brexiteers are now fighting so hard to have an unprotected border with the EU.


I assume the same arrangements will need to be done at Gibraltar? At least it's not got a GFA to deal with, just a lot of border crossing commuters.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

The EU currently has trade agreements:
> In place or partly in place with 83 countries (including Japan, Canada, China and India);
> Pending agreements with eight countries, and;
> Negotiations in progress with with a further 21.
All of these will vanish when we leave and we shall start negotiating our own.
Can any Brexit supporter explain what aspect of these trade deals the UK will improve upon when they negotiate their own trade deal and how they can guarantee that those bits of the deals that work for us now will not get watered down a a consequence of the UK having a smaller economy than the EU to bargain with when we start negotiating from scratch?

Does the EU have an agreement with India? Far as I recall, negotiations started in 2007 and ground to a halt three years ago.

What agreement does the EU have with China? I can't find one.

Mind you, the EU does have an FTA with Akrotiri and Dhekelia and the Faroe Islands so if these economic powerhouses can get one, there must be hope for the UK.