Karmacat: I'm passionate about my DFW journey to riches

GettingThingsDone

Nice one Z - did you read fooled by randomness too?

Karmacat

Coo... just googled six sigma... and randomness... I think I'd better catch up on my reading.

Karmacat

Just been playing DOND again - not so good this time! Lost almost two thirds of the money, I'm going to wait a few days and see if I can withdraw what's left on the freephone number. They can only say no!

Otherwise, been entering the gm.tv competition - saw it by accident yesterday on breakfast tv and since it doesn't cost anything to enter on the web, and you can enter 5 times to win £10,000, why not?

Nothing from Quidco in the bank account yet, tho £73 odd is scheduled for October.

So the plan for today:
- finish preparing for the seminar on Saturday.
- bother. I think I have to pay my French tax bill - there was an allowance for the first two years, now its an annual E430. Annoying, as I'm making a loss.
- ring for an insurance quote to get some Nectar points credited.
- join another sterling bookie.
- activate Tesco Clubcard Plus account.

ZTD

GettingThingsDone wrote: »

Nice one Z - did you read fooled by randomness too?

No, but I've seen excerpts and rebuttals in other stuff I've looked at which is to do with risk management and modelling.

That all stemmed from Goldman Sachs "We had 25 sigma events. For three days in a row."

How much more of a hint do you need that your risk model is useless?

Karmacat

Karmacat wrote: »

So the plan for today:
- finish preparing for the seminar on Saturday.done, except for printing off a bit.
- bother. I think I have to pay my French tax bill - there was an allowance for the first two years, now its an annual E430. Annoying, as I'm making a loss. nope - tomorrow morning.
- ring for an insurance quote to get some Nectar points credited. nope.
- join another sterling bookie. nope.
- activate Tesco Clubcard Plus account. been working on this, has taken ages, all the paperwork is all over the place.

In addition:
- have also signed up to retaileyes and selfridges mystery shopping.
- am decluttering paper at a rate of knots, so I can find all the Tesco paperwork
- have cleaned out the airing cupboard - some stuff can now be replaced, but a bit of electrical work still needs to be done before the bottom shelf can be re-installed.
- argh, my computer is running madly slow- my protection is up to date, I don't know what's going on, but something is. Will have to scandisk thing and defrag.

Karmacat

ZTD wrote: »

Goldman Sachs "We had 25 sigma events. For three days in a row."

How much more of a hint do you need that your risk model is useless?

Oh my word. These people are still pretty arrogant.....

ZTD

Karmacat wrote: »

Oh my word. These people are still pretty arrogant.....

I think it goes beyond arrogance and massively into corporate stupidity.

When something happens three days in a row, when the expected frequency is "once in a quarter of a million years", and you still think you've just been unlucky...well...there's not much hope really is there?

Karmacat

There's that quote "the harder I work, the luckier I get".... yeah, there's a lot of stupidity around. It staggers me that its in some of these places where people get paid in millions.... I mean, don't other people realise??? Or are they all as deluded?

ZTD

Karmacat wrote: »

There's that quote "the harder I work, the luckier I get".... yeah, there's a lot of stupidity around. It staggers me that its in some of these places where people get paid in millions.... I mean, don't other people realise??? Or are they all as deluded?

"There is no glory in being right when your boss is wrong."

That tends to ensure there is a lot of "group think". Yes, a lot of people inside do realise they are heading up the creek, but they don't say anything.

And outside the financial system there is a lot of propaganda to ensure the sheeple "do the right thing" i.e. the most profitable thing for those inside. This leads to uniformity in thought too.

But on the bright side - it will change.

Karmacat

"Sheeple" - I love it! Well, I love the word. The fact of it is painful.

Nowt more going on, really - bit anti-climactic to prattle on about decluttering my paperwork after such an erudite discussion! :rotfl: