Bull market, how long for?

BananaRepublic

economic wrote: »

Yes thats why i am overweight. About 65% US stock exposure. Long term should be a very good trade. I see US stocks rising another 50-100% at least before the next major bear market. We should see a bubble forming and that's when we should sell!

Ignore what posters on here say about holding on to stocks for eternity. THERE IS ALWAYS A TIME TO BUY AND A TIME TO SELL ANY ASSET.

Buy low, sell high, simples. So how do you know when to sell then? Especially since all the experts consistently get it wrong. Incidentally some experts think we are overdue a crash.

economic

BananaRepublic wrote: »

Buy low, sell high, simples. So how do you know when to sell then? Especially since all the experts consistently get it wrong. Incidentally some experts think we are overdue a crash.

when the stock market goes up like bitcoin has. thats the time to sell.

Voyager2002

economic wrote: »

when the stock market goes up like bitcoin has. thats the time to sell.

Or rather, when the stock market goes up like the S & P has, that is the time to sell.

In case anyone is interesting, I am overweight Vietnam.

BananaRepublic

economic wrote: »

when the stock market goes up like bitcoin has. thats the time to sell.

That’s not a quantitative measure. If it was that simple the big fund managers would all be outdoing passive funds. So what is your secret? And what is your track record?

iro

Neo liberalism despite a view that it is in its death throes is actually on the march again, individual vigour, avoidance of the dead hand of Government are enhanced by the rise of technology including cryptocurrencies (not necessarily Bitcoin).

For this reason I am also overweight 'frontier' markets and private equity.

BananaRepublic

As to how long this bull market has to run, who knows. I was predicting the end of the last one for years but it kept on going until the sub prime fiasco. As far as I am aware a bull market will continue until there is a crisis that destroys confidence, or disrupts the market. It’s like the cartoon where they run over the cliff edge but do not fall until they realise there is nothing beneath their feet. So the realisation that the market is flooded with junk debt, or a sudden rise in the oil price have in the past precipitated a crash. The markets are at present overvalued. Currently we have many potential problems including overvaluation of Bitcoin, and huge debt in China. Apparently most Bitcoin buyers are in China and Japan, so perhaps we must look to the East for the next trigger. Of course if the EU plays hard ball over Brexit, then the ensuing shock to European economies could be the trigger. Exciting times lie ahead.

le_loup

iro wrote: »

avoidance of the dead hand of Government

Oh dear.
When someone an only talk in clich!s, you know they are not worth listening to.

Keep_pedalling

iro wrote: »

Longest US Bull market since Eisenhower under Reagan.

Along with an extra $1.8 trillion on the national dept, a big jump in inequality between rich and poor, along with massive deregulation of the banking system, and we all know how that ended up.

Ainsley1

True an interesting discussion.

I'm with the banana in general. Much is made of figures, historical, predictions, valuations, value etc but when it comes down to it all so much actually relies on sentiment and perception in the short term!

.....oh and I am just overweight in general so will have a resolution to diet.....again!

elephantrosie

jimjames wrote: »

You mean like cutting spending on the NHS? USA is very different setup to here and the tax cuts look to be of benefit to big companies and Trump's mates not to the average person

i actually think trumps tax reduction is a heaven. it benefits everyone.