Bull market, how long for?

economic

The US stock market is not only about the US. Everyone on here has missed one BIG factor.

Capital flows. The US stock market is the biggest and most liquid stock market in the world. When you have rising taxes and government uncertainty in Europe and deflation in Japan and Brexit in UK and communism in China/Russia and socialism in India, where will people/institutions move money to?

The US!!

And where can money have a chance of providing a return whilst also absorbing all that wonderful cash easily?

The US stock market!!!

iro

economic wrote: »

The US stock market is not only about the US. Everyone on here has missed one BIG factor.

Capital flows. The US stock market is the biggest and most liquid stock market in the world. When you have rising taxes and government uncertainty in Europe and deflation in Japan and Brexit in UK and communism in China/Russia and socialism in India, where will people/institutions move money to?

The US!!


And where can money have a chance of providing a return whilst also absorbing all that wonderful cash easily?

The US stock market!!!

Of course as uncertainty increases so the SandP rises, glad I bought some US stocks!

economic

iro wrote: »

Of course as uncertainty increases so the SandP rises, glad I bought some US stocks!

Yes thats why i am overweight. About 65% US stock exposure. Long term should be a very good trade. I see US stocks rising another 50-100% at least before the next major bear market. We should see a bubble forming and that's when we should sell!

Ignore what posters on here say about holding on to stocks for eternity. THERE IS ALWAYS A TIME TO BUY AND A TIME TO SELL ANY ASSET.

reeac

As you appear to have all the answers perhaps you should answer your own initial question.

economic

reeac wrote: »

As you appear to have all the answers perhaps you should answer your own initial question.

you talking to me?

iro

Or are you talking to me?

economic

iro wrote: »

Or are you talking to me?

hahahaha nice one.

Prism

economic wrote: »

Yes thats why i am overweight. About 65% US stock exposure. Long term should be a very good trade. I see US stocks rising another 50-100% at least before the next major bear market. We should see a bubble forming and that's when we should sell!

Thats why people do recommend buy and hold though. It is pure guesswork as to when a bubble forms, or the market will rise another 100% before crashing 50%, or none of those things happens and it creeps up 5% for the next 20 years. Buy and hold assumes no special insight into such things except that in the long run equities go up. Most of the long term best performing active funds are run by buy and hold style managers. They sell and buy based upon the individual companies performance and valuation, not the market as a whole

username12345678

You can look at financial website forecasts going back years and see 'Markets To Fall' predictions that haven't materialized.

If you're drip feeding in your savings then a crash may well be a welcome thing.

If you're about to invest a lump sum or start your retirement draw down then perhaps not so welcome.

Zoea

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This is an excellent discussion. I too see the 'value' in every ************ one dropping cash on the US equities or whatever. Has it got upside still? Yeah, sure, maybe 60%+ before the next correction. Not shabby at all. What I worry about is the massively overpaid and underperforming financial services employee you folks seem to be mainly interesting in magic-ing money out of thin air / nothin not looking at actual value and proper human asset.

It's a global ecosystem of progress. Not just for us, but for our here afters. Treat it with respect folk.