Has the crash finally bugun?

tr3mor

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

I don't think that is the issue, its cause and effect, and they have effectively done so. House prices, interest rates and inflation are intrinsically related. House price rises were not a problem when inflation was inline with targets, hence no need to raise IR.

Gordon Clown shifted house prices and rents out of his imaginary measure of inflation. There probably isn't a need to raise interest rates at the moment but I'm certainly not expecting any cuts soon. RPI is running at nearly 5%, growth is slowing, it's a bad combination.

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

IMHO The defining moments that prove bank market management and intervention (unofficially or officially) was the European bank shoveling in liquidity into the currency markets after the last US sub prime scare and the BOE following suit with Northern Rock, they have shown their hand, first sign of HPC we will see IR cuts to manage it. 1.01 nailed on.

An illiquid banking system causes a lot bigger headaches for central banks than house prices.

tr3mor

pamaris wrote: »

I don't care what happens to even the playing field. In all likelihood, wages and house prices will meet in the middle.

This is about the most sensible prediction I've read.

tr3mor

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

The graph is stupid because the market does not have to return to a mean, it just needs to return to a point when it provides investment value, at which point demand kicks back in and the market will rise again.

The number of serious investors in housing must be tiny in comparison to homeowners and amateur BTLers.

If these BTLers have their fingers burnt they will be much more wary about investing in the future. Why put your money into a risky, illiquid asset when there are plenty of better performing options?

Would you rather earn 3% PA from bricks and mortar that you have to maintain and suffer dodgy tenants? Or would you rather stick your money in the bank and earn a safe 5%?

carolt

Terry_Tibs, I'm very dubious about following the logic of someone who claims to be a 'trader' but spells fickle 'fical' and you're 'your'.

Whilst spelling and grammar may not be essential for traders, surely some sort of brains and education are..... The lack of them certainly don't make your points any more credible.

You see, I may be but a poor pedant, but I know a troll when I see one......

[Deleted User]

Im a trader too, i do it from my bedroom too

Biggie

I work in an IB, though not a trader.

However I do know that real traders wouldn’t participate in this forum they would just be too busy or too arrogant

.
Therefore terry-tibs must be a TA (Trader assistant)

though I do believe in some of his theories he obviously reader the white papers available to traders. I do believe past historical trends don't not necessary predict future trends at least not accurately that's why so many people are so confused why we haven't had a crash. They just can't comprehend that we're not following the graph....

dealornodeal_3

Running_Horse wrote: »

Does it really matter?

Yes IMHO it does matter. If you buy now, then you are living with Non-Equity as the prices go down. And the only way is down. First Time Buyers unable to get on the Property Ladder.

I think within a year or 2, prices will drop 50/60%

WTF?_2

Biggie wrote: »

I work in an IB, though not a trader.

However I do know that real traders wouldn’t participate in this forum they would just be too busy or too arrogant

.
Therefore terry-tibs must be a TA (Trader assistant)

though I do believe in some of his theories he obviously reader the white papers available to traders. I do believe past historical trends don't not necessary predict future trends at least not accurately that's why so many people are so confused why we haven't had a crash. They just can't comprehend that we're not following the graph....

Unless fundamentals change, then historical cycles are likely to be repeated. The very basis of our financial system encourages boom/bust and nothing has occurred in recent times to change that.

The big difference is that we've had an exceptionally long period of 'boom' facilitated by incredibly low interest rates. The 'China factor' has allowed this to happen but it doesn't represent anything entirely new. It's just a very big developing country. It will be subject to the same laws of economics as everyone else.

Pobby

All of it amazes me!It wasn`t so long ago when we were in the midst of a very nasty recession.People being forced out of their homes,businesses closing,living with the real fear of redundancy.I have to eat my words as at that time I said that folk had learned the lesson of buying to expensive property.Duh!

Just remember that 7% interest rates are the new 15% of yester year!

PROFESSIONAL_LANDLORD

dealornodeal wrote: »

Yes IMHO it does matter. If you buy now, then you are living with Non-Equity as the prices go down. And the only way is down. First Time Buyers unable to get on the Property Ladder.

I think within a year or 2, prices will drop 50/60%

Wow ! 60% I think that's the highest prediction i've seen!

early days though ! shortly we'll see B.O.G.O.F.