Has the crash finally bugun?

Terry_Tibs

guppy wrote: »

Ok, the average hedge fund according to the FT is $178m. Average house price, say $350k. So between the six of them, they are going to somehow acquire and manage 3050 properties. Which in itself would be a complete pain in the bum, but still a mere drop in the HPI ocean. If you know these guys, tell them there are 3000 empty flats in Thamesmead coming to auction soon

Oh, and no, its not 1987 in my world...but it is starting to feel increasingly like 1989.

Dont act thick Guppy , the lemmings will follow the trend after the FT starts ramping and the daily mail follows. Trader bonus's have driven the London market in the past. Anyway its not my job to bring you into 2007.

Terry_Tibs

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Another post where Terry alludes to being able to explain things to us uninformed - then says he doesn't want to waste his time doing it....

That act is getting a bit old now, Terry. It's pretty clear you're just engaging in a bit of trolling.

Just put you on ignore as I cant be bothered with your stupidity.

nicola1982_2

I wouldn't recommend a FTB enter the market now - it's not particularly certain. However I wouldn't recommend a homeowner STR either.

Social attitudes have changed so much in the past 5 years. People appear to be prouder of paying huge amounts for a home rather than getting a bargain - it's insane. When my OH sold his house he got offered the asking price before the buyer even viewed the property. I couldn't ever imagine offering the asking price outright, let alone without even seeing the place. It's attitudes like these that fed into the property boom, and it now appears that we could be getting to a point where we can no longer afford these attitudes. Or maybe society is generally getting more sensible

guppy

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

The graph is stupid because the market does not have to return to a mean, it just needs to return to a point when it provides investment value, at which point demand kicks back in and the market will rise again.

What % of houses do you believe are bought as investment purchases in the average town?

ashm1

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

Exactly underlines my point about people not having the foggiest.

Spreads currently predict a 72% chance on NO CHANGE dec 08 interest rates.

The bank of England has managed the current situation , each 1/4 point had a measured effect until they reached the point of slowing home growth and inflation, there is no need for them to go any further, as soon as they see the market turn they will manage it in the opposite way by reducing IR slowly to a point when value returns and prices will rise again. So on and so forth it will go all in a managed manner, devoid of crash, just a little seesaw and liquidity to keep the markets viable.

Do you think the BOE are in control ?

Merv' couldn't rescue Northern Rock the way he wanted.

WTF?_2

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

Just put you on ignore as I cant be bothered with your stupidity.

Oh dear, and I was sooo looking forward to your informed contributions to actual points which I raised in the debate. :rolleyes:


Pretty much all that Terry the Troll has done in this thread is sling ad-hominem abuse and intimate that he has some sort of superior knowledge. Of course, when the time comes to actually demonstrate his finance-savviness he moans that he can't be bothered to explain his stance.

But of course, he's 'ignoring' me so he won't ever read this :rotfl:

Terry_Tibs

guppy wrote: »

What % of houses do you believe are bought as investment purchases in the average town?

Guppy, I'm not interested in falling into your little point scoring traps, I have told you what will happen, take it or leave it, after all your a guy who thinks hedge fund property investment cant spoof a market, when its been shown that trader bonus's (a far lower amount) can.

My advice to FTB's would be to watch the market when it starts to fall, it wont go far and it will bottom out quickly, then get in before the correction, you will at least have a head start into a couple of years of stagnation, oh and ignore dinosaurs who quote past models based on 20 year old info, its no longer relevant.

guppy

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

Guppy, I'm not interested in falling into your little point scoring traps, I have told you what will happen, take it or leave it, after all your a guy who thinks hedge fund property investment cant spoof a market, when its been shown that trader bonus's (a far lower amount) can.

That wasn't a trap. Just a simple question. Nevermind.

Trader's bonuses. You have this the wrong way round. Low bonuses are a symptom not a cause. Yes, if bonuses fall, there will be less people in the market for a £3m country house in Surrey, but it has no affect on the price of a 3 Bed semi in Stoke.

Low bonuses are just a symptom of a weakening economy, that is the thing that will really affect prices.

But please, just explain this to me. Are you suggesting that hedge funds planning to directly invest in residential property in the UK? If so, how and where?

HenryWeston

hgllgh wrote: »

There are 3 major HP measures reporting drops for September ... Halifax, Home.co.uk and Rightmove. When was the last time that happened?

The most recent quarterly figures from the Landreg showed drops for 3 regions of the UK ... the last time that happened was after Sep 11th. There is no related major terrorist attack this time?

Effects of the Interest rate rises and the credit crunch are only just getting underway

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=425220&in_page_id=57


Is the crash with us?

Most definitely :eek:

[Deleted User]

guppy wrote: »

Is this a long winded way of saying, "things are different this time"? Have we banished boom and bust as GB claims? Have we per chance, reached a "new paradigm"?

Bubble Psychology

thats fekin awesome :T:rotfl:

Have a beer on me!