Has the crash finally bugun?

zekepes

Obviously, I have no real clue!

I have been predicting a period of v.slow rises and stagnation for the last 2 years but....I was wrong there!

However, in that time [last couple of years] I was tempted to take another step up the ladder quite a few times. Now there is no way I would and younger friends, potential FTB's, have lost interest too. Whilst I do appreciate that my little experiences are not necessarily reflective of the whole country....

epz_2

a lot of ftb's have been cut out the market for several years now, you just have to look at the EA adverts these days the advertise to BTL investments first and occasionally ftb'ers secondly for those typical properties.

IveSeenTheLight

guppy wrote: »

I'm not buying in to the stagnation/stabilisation theory. The housing market has never flatlined for any great length of time since the 1970s. Its always been boom and bust.

I'm not sure this time can be any different. Especially when so many people are skeptical about the current high prices. I wouldn't be so bold as to predict a crash though.

Even though boom and bust,most BTLers arein it for the longterm anyway.
Using the 70's as an example, does anyone know of a house valued in the 70's that the same house is worth less now or think it will be valued at less if the hoped for by many crash ever happens. I doubt it.

I hope to keep my BTL for 30 years and think use as my pension.
I think most BTLers are in it for the same long term results

ManAtHome

Anyone know of the salary for any job in the 70s being less now...

Read up about "baby boomers", inflation, demographics etc - a lot can happen in 30 years.

guppy

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Even though boom and bust,most BTLers arein it for the longterm anyway.
Using the 70's as an example, does anyone know of a house valued in the 70's that the same house is worth less now or think it will be valued at less if the hoped for by many crash ever happens. I doubt it.

I hope to keep my BTL for 30 years and think use as my pension.
I think most BTLers are in it for the same long term results

I'm sure most people would like to be in it for the long term and most probably will be. But sometimes economic realities rain on their parade. For example when interests rates hit 15% in 1989 - judging by the number of repos in the following years, not everyone had remembered their umbrella...

[Deleted User]

There are over 1 million subprime mortgages in the UK the rates on these are around 11% at teh moment.

BTL mortgages are pretty high too some at 8-9%ish

The economy is f**d we will pay the price for the governments boom an bust economy in tax , recession and anarcy.

Terry_Tibs

guppy wrote: »

I'm not buying in to the stagnation/stabilisation theory. The housing market has never flatlined for any great length of time since the 1970s. Its always been boom and bust.

I'm not sure this time can be any different. Especially when so many people are skeptical about the current high prices. I wouldn't be so bold as to predict a crash though.

I cant be arsed to get into a long winded debate, but suffice to say that most people do not understand the nature of the way modern finance markets work and the housing market has changed into one, this is underlined by those who base prediction on market swings over the last 30 years, there is a basic math calc between the cost of a mortgage , the rent able value of a home and the % ROI that means that whilst the interest rates are being managed we wont see another crash , what we may see in the short term is a lumpy market, short in liquidity , but as soon as the market becomes viable in regard to ROI it will stop falling as money gets moved back into property (and I dont mean private buyers).

IMHO We will see a continuing slight % correction until next spring, followed by around 3 years (max, prob more like 2) of stagnation, as soon as a point is reached when value returns to the market it will start to rise again.

inmypocketnottheirs

Terry_Tibs wrote: »

I cant be arsed to get into a long winded debate, but suffice to say that most people do not understand the nature of the way modern finance markets work and the housing market has changed into one, this is underlined by those who base prediction on market swings over the last 30 years, there is a basic math calc between the cost of a mortgage , the rent able value of a home and the % ROI that means that whilst the interest rates are being managed we wont see another crash , what we may see in the short term is a lumpy market, short in liquidity , but as soon as the market becomes viable in regard to ROI it will stop falling as money gets moved back into property (and I dont mean private buyers).

IMHO We will see a continuing slight % correction until next spring, followed by around 3 years of stagnation, as soon as a point is reached when value returns to the market it will start to rise again.

Very eloquently put.

nickj_2

it's teetering on the edge , a couple of more interest hikes and an increase in household bills will push it over

Terry_Tibs

nickj wrote: »

it's teetering on the edge , a couple of more interest hikes and an increase in household bills will push it over

Exactly underlines my point about people not having the foggiest.

Spreads currently predict a 72% chance on NO CHANGE dec 08 interest rates.

The bank of England has managed the current situation , each 1/4 point had a measured effect until they reached the point of slowing home growth and inflation, there is no need for them to go any further, as soon as they see the market turn they will manage it in the opposite way by reducing IR slowly to a point when value returns and prices will rise again. So on and so forth it will go all in a managed manner, devoid of crash, just a little seesaw and liquidity to keep the markets viable.