Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

There doesn't seem to be any positive response to this fact. I think Team Remain probably thought that if nobody mentioned it then everyone would carry on in blissful ignorance.

You're right, it's a good fact.

However, it doesn't change the fact that most trade is with neighbouring states, nor that the EU is actively working on trade agreements with these growth areas and are years ahead of us, nor the fact that growth on it's own is misleading, when you're growing from something small (something the brexiteers bring up every time they are trying to explain away the UK's poor growth).

Here's another. When was the last time the EU recruited a net contributor state to its' ranks? Of course it's going to milk contributors like the UK for all they are worth when new recruits are there mainly feed off the EU teet.

And make everyone richer in the process. Far from being bled dry we benefit from being in the EU. Bringing wealth to Eastern Europe allows them to buy our stuff.

I don't know who the latest recruited contributor was, I'd need to look it up. Do you know?
I don't think it's relevant anyway.

Pauciloquent_1_2

Herzlos wrote: »

I was responding to westerpromise calling Dianne Abbot a racist because someone felt she was.

You're trying to tell me that you answered a post that hadn't yet been posted?

Herzlos

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

You're trying to tell me that you answered a post that hadn't yet been posted?

You're right, I got that wrong.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

...
Absolutely the best way to tap into new areas of global growth is to be lucky enough to be located near to where it's happening.

We're arguing about what is second best i.e. tapping into this growth inside or outside the EU.

For me, it's about extrapolation, ie where things are going in the future.

Not just product development, but changing expectations in the emerging markets. We need to better understand these to tap in.

I used to buy stuff off a pretty savvy Chinese business student. He obviously came from a family with new wealth, that was clear.

He was also clear about where he expected to be working...in South America. He made a clear case as to why it was that place rather than Europe which was the next big market.

He could be wrong, but there was nothing wrong with the ambition.

What disappointed me about the Brexit campaigning, was all this talk about why we should be concerned about losing people who can pick fruit and veg .... as if that is going to drive our future prosperity. Where was the ambition?

There are far far bigger changes going on in the world, and somehow we still dwell on this insular view that being inside the EU will keep us all cosy and warm. I really don't think it will.

The EU could lose a lot of time and energy trying to fix that car crash of a common currency. (That's if they overcome the fallout from the refugee handling disaster).

Herzlos

I think you're conflating things somewhat. He may well be right that he sees a better future for himself in his industry in South America, but that doesn't mean South America even has the potential to consume more of our output than Europe does.
There's certainly growth in South America, and money for us to make. Is that worth hurting the money we make via the EU? I haven't seen anything to say it is.

I share you're concern about the lack of ambition from the Brexit campaign, but I'd posit that whilst Brexit has lots of "big picture thinkers", the ambitious people with the eye for detail would largely rather be capitalizing on being within the EU. Once we've left, some will find a way to make money from a Brexited UK, but most will just get on with minimizing the damage.

There's been no ambition from any of the Brexit campaign leaders, or May. The campaign was revolving around how horrid the EU was and how we'll be better off outside it (leaving the "why" to those details people). Even now there's plenty talk about the "opportunities" of Brexit, but tumbleweed when I ask "What opportunities are they?" or "Can you provide any detail?".

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
There's been no ambition from any of the Brexit campaign leaders, or May. The campaign was revolving around how horrid the EU was and how we'll be better off outside it (leaving the "why" to those details people). Even now there's plenty talk about the "opportunities" of Brexit, but tumbleweed when I ask "What opportunities are they?" or "Can you provide any detail?".

We are all shackled by the limited ability of PM May. Sad to say.

It's equally my opinion that we in the UK are shackled by an EU leader who has, at best, shown mild antipathy towards the UK.

I didn't get to pick either unfortunately. All I got was an opportunity to tick a particular box in a referendum.

The opportunities are extremely clear. I could see that highly independent machines would form a significant part of our future 30+ years ago. My opinion has not changed, and yet the capability of these machines has increased significantly.

We simply do not need the benefits something like FOM will provide, because in the not so distant future, we will not need anything like the manpower we do today. This is going to hit certain communities very hard, so we should really be having some honest and open assessment about it.

StevieJ

Herzlos wrote: »

Some responses to the inevitable daily mail outrage about parliament getting the wrong kind of sovereignty:

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/05/01/daily-mail-spitting-nails-responses-need/

It is starting to look like a Monty Python sketch.

Tromking

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Down. Many agricultural/food products are impacted by EU policy. Tariff free does not equate to "cheap". Ultimately though it's about creating jobs/work in the UK.

Seems as if all is not well in the German economy either.



Interesting times lie ahead.

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-retail/german-monthly-retail-sales-unexpectedly-drop-in-march-idUSL8N1S47XU

The perennial problem for the Eurozone.
Germany’s penchant for selling shed loads of gear to everyone else coupled with the German consumers reticence to reciprocate will become toxic going forward.

Herzlos

I'm not sure we'll be able to automate that many of the remaining manual jobs away; we've done all the easy stuff.

But we do have the opportunity to try to boost our position in terms of AI and automation. Will we be able to do that better on our own rather than in collaboration with the EU? I bet there's a lot of European universities working on robotics and we're likely to have a hard time interacting with them, at worst we won't be allowed to apply for funding/grants/projects.

I see where you're coming from, but I just don't see offhand how we can capitalize on what the rest of the world is doing, whilst shutting ourselves off from it. I don't have a great deal of visibility into robotics ATM so I could be wrong.

Pauciloquent_1_2

kabayiri wrote: »

..........................

There are far far bigger changes going on in the world, and somehow we still dwell on this insular view that being inside the EU will keep us all cosy and warm. I really don't think it will.

Yes there are far bigger changes going on in the world just a few of which are immediately obvious, such as the onward rise of alternative fuels to power our vehicles (what will happen with oil then?) or the continuing rise of AI replacing jobs not just in manufacturing but in many other areas.
Forbes stated that a PCW study recently suggested that 38% of all USA jobs are at high risk of being replaced by AI over the next 15 years; there's nothing to suggest that the UK or EU will be much different.

It's fairly obvious that the EU brush what they can under the carpet and even when issues become pressing (see migrants; internal divisions; the Euro and more) rather than find a solution to a problem it normally has a few bob thrown at it to ease the problem short-term in the hope that the problem then resolves itself which of course it rarely does.
Or it takes years of wrangling before a decision is reached.
I mean, even their budget takes ages to agree and this every seven years; trade agreements can take ten years!
That's what happens when you have so many different needs, opinions, cultures and priorities all clamouring for their own individual say.

The UK might not be perfect but IMHO it is much better-placed to face an uncertain future if it has the ability to react speedily to changes and to implement those changes alone, rather than rely upon being a part of a ponderous group with conflicting interests.