Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Herzlos wrote: »

both sides would be talking about a better deal almost immediately after we had a hard brexit.

Well the best deal possible with the EU is the one we already have.

By definition all future deals will be worse.

Thrugelmir

If we buy less stuff from the EU, do you think the cost of it will go up or down?

Down. Many agricultural/food products are impacted by EU policy. Tariff free does not equate to "cheap". Ultimately though it's about creating jobs/work in the UK.

Seems as if all is not well in the German economy either.

German monthly retail sales unexpectedly fell in March, data showed on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive drop and dampening cheer around a consumer-led upswing in Europe!!!8217;s biggest economy.

The volatile indicator, which is often subject to revision, showed retail sales decreased by 0.6 percent on the month in real terms, the Federal Statistics Office said.

Private consumption has been a key growth driver in recent years as consumers benefit from rising wages, record-high employment and strong job security but foreign trade propelled Germany!!!8217;s fourth-quarter growth.

On the year, retail sales climbed by 1.3 percent, beating a Reuters consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent increase.

The retail sales data came after a GfK survey published last week showed the mood among German consumers fell heading into May amid fears that a possible confrontation between the West and Russia in Syria and protectionist U.S. trade policies could hurt the economy.

Interesting times lie ahead.

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-retail/german-monthly-retail-sales-unexpectedly-drop-in-march-idUSL8N1S47XU

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

We haven't had any debate over our future beyond trying to figure out how to get away with Brexit. There's been a bit of talk of trade but it's mostly been us trying to get other countries to pretend we're in the EU.

There's been a bit of investment in science/technology, but nothing major, and no real discussion of the future or any big picture thinking. In short, I don't think we've had any discussion about the future we wouldn't had anyway. Probably less, since we've had to spend so much time talking about Brexit. Just think what Parliament could have done with those thousands of hours that would have benefited us.



What messages? That no-one knows what they want, and we've got deep problems that aren't being addressed?



I don't see how you can say that with a straight face after the scandals of the last week - Windrush, Indian Doctors, low hanging fruit immigration quotas, those "go home" vans. Are those British values?


We do. Potentially, depending on our Brexit deal, if we want to keep seamless trade.



What fiscal balance? We've sold off the silver and still running a huge deficit, we're broke and getting worse.



We can put them first by staying in the EU, and reaping the benefits of such.



We'll see if they actually rise, or if we'll just have less wages and more zero hour stuff as the economy shrinks.



That's going to fit well with the "Earn, learn, return" stuff, and is nothing we couldn't have done anyway. We've got a serious problem with short-termish, and Brexit isn't going to change that.


We could do that anyway. Why home ownership rather than social rents?



Do illegal migrants have any significant impact on the NHS? I know the legal ones are more likely to work there than drain it's resources, whilst still paying taxes.


Far from it, they are in the process of discussing another referendum without Westminsters backing, since they are getting so screwed over by Brexit.



The UK will emerge poorer, with less world presence, more internal division and resentment and with less equality if the Tories get their way in reducing "red tape".



We do have a different system, sure, but it's not entirely incompatible.


If you say so. Given that there's no consensus or idea of what they want, it's hard to say. There's lots of "big picture" ideas with no concern for the little details.


Or the pragmatists, asking such devious questions as "why do you want to do that?" and "how will that work, then?"


If he wants democracy back, then he should be happy that "Remainers" are fighting for democracy, no?
It's also interesting that he doesn't know any Remainers (despite the statistics showing that more under 25's voted in than out), and doesn't want a "jobs first Brexit".

But it does highlight this problem that Leavers and Remainers are completely unable to understand each other. I'm trying but failing miserably.

Thank you Herzlos a perfect post.

What I find amazing and disheartening is that there are people who think that during the near two years since the referendum Parliament has not had attention deflected from some important issues that were contained in their manifesto.
Although David Davis representing Britain has shown me that British politicians who rise to the top are not as clever as I thought they were. My bad.

What is also becoming clear is that there is just not enough money in the tax take to run the country properly.
Perhaps Brexit is a useful distraction. Just like a magician while you get your pocket picked.

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

What is also becoming clear is that there is just not enough money in the tax take to run the country properly.
Perhaps Brexit is a useful distraction. Just like a magician while you get your pocket picked.

It’s come at an horrendous cost for our public services but the U.K. has on ‘day to day spending’ at least managed to balance the books.
A poll released yesterday has the Tories with a 5 point lead over Labour. This being the third such poll in a month to show such a lead.
The U.K.’s latent Brexit majority beginning to manifest itself in the polls perhaps?

Herzlos

More likely a majority being swayed by the constant screams of anti-semitism and racism? Labour have been getting smeared pretty hard.

Dianne Abbot going on TV won't have helped either.

westernpromise

It's not a smear when it's so patently true. Labour is an anti-semitic party; Diane Abbott is a racist. We know all this because, thanks to the Macpherson definition, something is racism if anybody thinks it is.

If the Board of British Deputies thinks Labour has an anti-semitism problem then ergo Labour does indeed have an anti-semitism problem. If anyone thinks Diane Abbott is a racist, she must be. So by Labour's own lights, Labour is a racist and anti-semitic party now. It's simply beyond argument.

Enterprise_1701C

I came across a very strange phenomenon some time ago, it seems like "minorities" do not believe they can be thought of as racist.

I had a moslem boss, he had every Friday off but got very upset when we did not want to work Sundays (rest of the workforce was Christian, or at least played lip service to being so). Every time we crossed him he would have a paddy and say he would make us work every Sunday (he couldn't, at least not with me as I had started working there before that rule came in).

I put in a bullying complaint, not just for this but several other parts of his attitude, he was an out and out bigot apart from anything else, and a hypocrite as he claimed to be a strict moslem but I knew he drank alcohol from speaking to his wife.

I apparently was not allowed to accuse him of racism as he was an ethnic minority, last time someone accused him of racism he turned the accusation round and got them sacked!

It has simply gone too far in this country, ethnic minorities should be equal yes, but certainly not more than equal.

iro

Herzlos wrote: »

More likely a majority being swayed by the constant screams of anti-semitism and racism? Labour have been getting smeared pretty hard.

Dianne Abbot going on TV won't have helped either.

Very funny interview with Piers Morgan.


JC can handle 'constructive ambiguity', DA's attempt turned into a farce.

Herzlos

Some responses to the inevitable daily mail outrage about parliament getting the wrong kind of sovereignty:

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/05/01/daily-mail-spitting-nails-responses-need/

Herzlos

westernpromise wrote: »

It's not a smear when it's so patently true. Labour is an anti-semitic party; Diane Abbott is a racist. We know all this because, thanks to the Macpherson definition, something is racism if anybody thinks it is.

If the Board of British Deputies thinks Labour has an anti-semitism problem then ergo Labour does indeed have an anti-semitism problem. If anyone thinks Diane Abbott is a racist, she must be. So by Labour's own lights, Labour is a racist and anti-semitic party now. It's simply beyond argument.

But it's not true. 10 (ten) cross party reviews have come back with the conclusion that the Labour party is no more anti-Semitic than any other group of people. When Tories are saying that Labour isn't anti-semitic instead of putting the boot in will show you how little there is to go on.

Yet there are cries for reviews into Islamophobia in the Tory party which are being ignored by pretty much everyone. Potentially because it's so obvious.

Where's the reviews I to the Tories being anti-semitic (MP was just suspended for haulocaust joke), racist or Islamophobia?