Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Zero_Gravitas

Good summary of the current situation from Robert Peston:

https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2044306805894054

"Amber Rudd was forced by the PM this afternoon to put out a statement that "of course when we leave the EU, we will be leaving the customs union", because over lunch with journalists she had allowed some flicker of doubt over whether the second event really is the dawn after Brexit's night.

But every time the government insists that leaving the customs union really is necessary, desirable and inevitable, it sows fear and confusion about two other of Theresa May's Brexit statements that are supposed to have the status of biblical commandments.

These are
1) that the Good Friday Agreement will be honoured, and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be kept open, and
2) that there will never be any new border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

What the government refuses to accept, with all the furious zeal of a Christian fundamentalist presented with Darwin's "Origin of the Species", is that there is literally no chance of either the main EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier or other EU government heads conceding the Irish border would be open and permeable in the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement unless
a) either the UK remains in the customs union, while also committing to keep product and food standards permanently aligned with those of the UK, or
b) Northern Ireland in effect remains part of the customs union and single market while Great Britain withdraws from both.

For the avoidance of doubt, most Tory eurosceptics together with Northern Ireland's DUP - without whose succour May falls - are implacably and religiously opposed to both a) and b).

To put it another way, the prime minister's fundamental positions on Brexit are seen as incredible by almost everyone, except those who serve in her cabinet.

Which perhaps would not matter and could be ignored, except that come the end of June, EU government heads will at their next summit call a halt to all negotiations on a future relationship with the UK unless progress is being seen to be made on the logistics of keeping Ireland's internal national border open.

It is extraordinary that no member of the cabinet, whether a Brexit ultra or a repenting Remainer (like Rudd), can bring themselves to face the hideous (for them) truth that the prime minister's proposed customs "partnership" and assorted technical and bureaucratic proposals to speed goods across all our borders will never persuade the rest of the EU that they could prevent the re-establishment of a border on the island or Ireland.

That said, they must surely see that the majority of MPs and Lords are closer to EU leaders on whether or not membership of the customs union is necessary than they are to the prime minister - which raises the risk that parliament at some point loses patience with the prime minister and legislates to expose the internal contradiction in her Brexit principles.

Every time a Rudd or a May says "we are leaving the customs union" I have no doubt they mean it.

But each repetition brings the UK closer to a negotiating car crash with the EU, and an associated constitutional car crash in Ireland.

Whether she is conscious of it or not, the PM is playing the highest stakes game of chicken. Is there any good reason to believe Merkel and Macron will blink first?"

Pauciloquent_1_2

It's not a case of blinking.
As has been said before, the UK could just walk and there is no legal requirement for any country to impose borders.
It's all just part of a game being played out and so many sheeple, Peston included, are trying to reassure themselves that Brexit will be a disaster.
It won't.

StevieJ

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

It's not a case of blinking.
As has been said before, the UK could just walk and there is no legal requirement for any country to impose borders.
It's all just part of a game being played out and so many sheeple, Peston included, are trying to reassure themselves that Brexit will be a disaster.
It won't.

Why would a govt that seeks to 'take back control' impose no borders?

mayonnaise

Hey_Jude_1967 wrote: »

Try visiting Venice via any country outside of Schengen (ie EU member Croatia) and I will guarantee the Non EU queue will move faster. Its almost like the immigration staff either have some beef with Croatia or are annoyed that tourists spent their money there instead of Venice........ The non EU queue is usually filled with Aussies,Americans and Japanese

Did you arrive by hydrofoil?

Private_Church wrote: »

Visited Venice last year and went from Croatia to Venice on the hydrofoil and when we went through immigration the queue for EU passport holders was far slower than that of the non EU passport holders ( US,Aus,NZ etc).

Corporal_Perkins wrote: »

On arriving in Venice last year travelling from Croatia on the hydrofoil the NON EU queue (mostly made up of Kiwi,Aussies and Americans) passed through immigration far quicker than the shorter EU queue so the loss of FOM for UK citizens means very little in reality..

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

Why would a govt that seeks to 'take back control' impose no borders?

With over 3,000 crossing points. Rather impractical.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't spend a thousand quid a week travelling because I enjoy sitting in airports.

No, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that were absolutely true.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's made up nonsense and not even worth arguing.

Your pal mayonnaise has just proven you wrong. Funny thing but the whole of the world apart from relatively few EU countries doesn't even have separate passport control for EU or non-EU citizens. Funnier still, they all seem to cope with that loss (?) quite well.

Herzlos

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

It's not a case of blinking.
As has been said before, the UK could just walk and there is no legal requirement for any country to impose borders.
It's all just part of a game being played out and so many sheeple, Peston included, are trying to reassure themselves that Brexit will be a disaster.
It won't.

Assuming we walked away with only agreement on things like aviation and radiation; why do you think either side will be happy with no trade agreement and no borders? How would they deal with tariff avoidance? How does the EU stop us exporting stuff that's not legal in the EU? How do we keep the immigrants out?

I mean, sure, technically we could walk away on wto and not bother with a border, but it'd be a disaster.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

I mean, sure, technically we could walk away on wto and not bother with a border, but it'd be a disaster.

Rubbish! Even the Institute for Economic Affairs has said that a WTO Brexit could be very good for the UK and they aren't the only ones who have suggested the same.

ETA the border being referred to is (oh! Surprise!) the one in Ireland before you try to deviate from the topic.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

I've waited for over an hour to get through US customs, and my bags have never taken that long; if I even take any.

It often takes around an hour at Orlando & it took over an hour this week too. It's a little overcast here in Florida as I speak but I will wish you adieu while I go for a spot of lunch.