Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

You have to wait longer than that for your bags so it's no biggie.

It might be better value than an ESTA but IMHO it'll put lots of UK holidaymakers off and will encourage them towards Egypt, Turkey and even Morocco & Tunisia.
Spain will lose out for sure.

I've waited for over an hour to get through US customs, and my bags have never taken that long; if I even take any.

It might encourage folk to travel further for their fortnight on a beach, but they might like Spain.
I don't imagine 6 quid every 3 years will put anyone off a holiday anyway. People will rage about it for a while and then either pay up or join the slow queue.

Pauciloquent_1_2

Herzlos wrote: »

That's a list of reasons things aren't as bad as feared. None of that is actually good, especially in context.

I'm willing to bet that if we were in recession with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, inflation at 10% and the pound at parity with the Euro you'd be screeching "See what Brexit has done!".

Herzlos wrote: »

What's good about Brexit? What is better than it'd be without it?/

What's good is that we will be free of the EU.
What will be better is that we will be free to find our own way in the world, like offspring having their own job and place to call home.

Pauciloquent_1_2

Herzlos wrote: »

I've waited for over an hour to get through US customs, and my bags have never taken that long; if I even take any.

It might encourage folk to travel further for their fortnight on a beach, but they might like Spain.
I don't imagine 6 quid every 3 years will put anyone off a holiday anyway. People will rage about it for a while and then either pay up or join the slow queue.

You're just bickering.
The reality is that for most people it will make no or very little difference.

Don't you even wonder why suddenly this supposed "news" surfaces today as tensions supposedly mount over market access?
It's like this Rudd business; Rudd must go yet Corbyn ..........

Herzlos

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

I'm willing to bet that if we were in recession with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, inflation at 10% and the pound at parity with the Euro you'd be screeching "See what Brexit has done!".

Quite likely, and all you've got so far is "the sky hasn't fallen in like remainiacs claimed it would".

What's good is that we will be free of the EU.
What will be better is that we will be free to find our own way in the world, like offspring having their own job and place to call home.

Thanks, that's better. I disagree largely though, in that without a hard Brexit, we're not actually going to be free of the EU.

If we could find a way to keep our economy going whilst we gradually re-aligned priorities over, say, 25 years, and then were free of the EU but without the damage, I could very much be won over.

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

You're just bickering.
The reality is that for most people it will make no or very little difference.

I agree it won't affect most people, and barely the people that travel regularly (all the sales/business folk), but it'll still be a source of sadly predictable outrage (see the Mail Online), and I'm confident it'll enrage a lot of Brexiteers on their annual European holiday. I say Brexiteers because this was pointed out before the referendum and written off as Project Fear. It'll no doubt cause border friction and annoyance as the people who didn't know to do it in advance will need to join the slow queue. Some people may also find themselves being rejected where FoM would have allowed them in.

But we're largely in agreement; it's a natural consequence of leaving the EU and absolutely a non issue.

Don't you even wonder why suddenly this supposed "news" surfaces today as tensions supposedly mount over market access?
It's like this Rudd business; Rudd must go yet Corbyn ..........

I was a bit surprised it's re surfaced since this has been common knowledge for 2 years and came up a couple of months ago to. I date say the repeated announcement is timed for political reasons, that almost goes without saying.

Moby

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/racial-abuse-woman-train-son-leeds-vie-lusandu-men-brexit-racism-a8323421.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-single-market-access-theresa-may-pleading-with-eu-a8324086.html

Theresa May has been reduced to !!!8220;pleading!!!8221; with the EU to give British financial firms access to sell services into the single market after Brexit without having to follow European regulations, the EU!!!8217;s chief negotiator has said.

Speaking in Sofia on Thursday Michel Barnier said Britain would face new border checks and disruption from leaving the bloc, and that the UK was more dependent on Europe for trade than vice-versa.

In a speech Mr Barnier rejected Theresa May!!!8217;s call for continued trade in financial services between Britain and the EU !!!8220;based on the UK and EU maintaining the same regulatory outcomes over time!!!8221;.

vivatifosi

Herzlos wrote: »

Which is bizarre since one of the big complaints was about how insecure the Schengen zone apparently is, thus this is the logical conclusion.

I wonder what rage we'll see in the press when it comes into effect in 2020 and British tourists are stuck in huge queues trying to get to Malaga, because they didn't register in advance.

I don't think this will happen. This won't be anything to do with the competence or otherwise of those visiting, it will have more to do with the airlines. They will not want to carry people to Europe who don't get in as they have to pay a penalty and the return carriage if they do this. It is more likely that they will turn up at the UK airport and be denied boarding.

I've taken a cruise to America before now. They had a terminal for people to apply for an ESTA before leaving if you couldn't show a valid one. Airlines currently send their passenger manifests ahead of time, at which point anyone without the appropriate papers would get flagged. I'd expect something similar.

I have to say I think ESTAs are great. I have been to the US more than 50 times and ESTAs are much better than the old paper system. I once had an immigration official hold me up for several hours as on my previous departure they didn't include the leaving part from my passport. I realised when I got home and tried to contact the embassy, but still got treated as a potential overstayer.

gfplux

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

You have to wait longer than that for your bags so it's no biggie.

It might be better value than an ESTA but IMHO it'll put lots of UK holidaymakers off and will encourage them towards Egypt, Turkey and even Morocco & Tunisia.
Spain will lose out for sure.

Almost every time I have finally made it through passport control in the USA to the baggage hall, all the bags have been taken off the conveyor and stacked to one side.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

Quite likely, and all you've got so far is "the sky hasn't fallen in like remainiacs claimed it would".



Thanks, that's better. I disagree largely though, in that without a hard Brexit, we're not actually going to be free of the EU.

If we could find a way to keep our economy going whilst we gradually re-aligned priorities over, say, 25 years, and then were free of the EU but without the damage, I could very much be won over.



I agree it won't affect most people, and barely the people that travel regularly (all the sales/business folk), but it'll still be a source of sadly predictable outrage (see the Mail Online), and I'm confident it'll enrage a lot of Brexiteers on their annual European holiday. I say Brexiteers because this was pointed out before the referendum and written off as Project Fear. It'll no doubt cause border friction and annoyance as the people who didn't know to do it in advance will need to join the slow queue. Some people may also find themselves being rejected where FoM would have allowed them in.

But we're largely in agreement; it's a natural consequence of leaving the EU and absolutely a non issue.



I was a bit surprised it's re surfaced since this has been common knowledge for 2 years and came up a couple of months ago to. I date say the repeated announcement is timed for political reasons, that almost goes without saying.

It made the news as the EU council agreed to move ETIAS to the next step.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/04/25/european-travel-information-and-authorisation-system-etias-council-confirms-agreement-with-european-parliament/

QUOTE
On 25 April, EU ambassadors confirmed an agreement reached between the Council Presidency and the European Parliament representatives on the proposal for a European travel information and authorisation system (ETIAS).
END QUOTE

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Almost every time I have finally made it through passport control in the USA to the baggage hall, all the bags have been taken off the conveyor and stacked to one side.

I think this depends on two things. First how many international flights arrive at the same time and second where you are sitting on the plane. I can queue for ages if several flights have landed at the same time.

Quite often flights from Europe can turn up at similar times as they want to then turn it round in a few hours for it to arrive early morning but not middle of the night. So you get many flights to Europe taking off and landing within a few hours of each other, then nothing (less so on shorter routes such as NY or Boston).

Then if you are in the pointy end in first or business and there are no other planes that have arrived at the same time, you'll get through pretty quickly.If you are at the back of an A380 then somewhat less so.

Tromking

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's a nice story but little, if anything, to do with brexit. Even if it was it's nothing to crow about - people are dying today as part of the investment in the jam tomorrow project. Neither is the fact that the consumer has to pay more for everything as a result.

By story you mean facts of course.
I’m certainly no fan of the Tories austerity agenda, but I distinctly recall the NHS story a couple of weeks back where the inevitable drop in EU inward migration will require a rise in homegrown training places. A story that is wholly Brexit related.
As far as costs to the consumer is concerned the current situation is one of wages rising and inflation falling. I do get however that bad news is always Brexit related and good news is the opposite. There has also been more than one story of businesses preparing for the end of mass EU inward migration by zeroing in on productivity.
While you and others engage in the ‘woe is me’ narrative, the U.K. is adapting to Brexit.