Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

vivatifosi wrote: »

I don't think this will happen. This won't be anything to do with the competence or otherwise of those visiting, it will have more to do with the airlines. They will not want to carry people to Europe who don't get in as they have to pay a penalty and the return carriage if they do this. It is more likely that they will turn up at the UK airport and be denied boarding.

I've taken a cruise to America before now. They had a terminal for people to apply for an ESTA before leaving if you couldn't show a valid one. Airlines currently send their passenger manifests ahead of time, at which point anyone without the appropriate papers would get flagged. I'd expect something similar.

I have to say I think ESTAs are great. I have been to the US more than 50 times and ESTAs are much better than the old paper system. I once had an immigration official hold me up for several hours as on my previous departure they didn't include the leaving part from my passport. I realised when I got home and tried to contact the embassy, but still got treated as a potential overstayer.

I'm pretty sure you can visit the US as a tourist without ESTA, it's just a VISA waiver, and you can apply at the border if you fill out the landing card and wait log enough. I've certainly never been asked about an ESTA until I'm in the arrivals checkpoint. I always end of failing to get through on my ESTA and having to join another queue too, which is another concern with ETIAS.

So I'm assuming that with no ETIAS you'll just need to apply for a VISA at the border, which will take ages (because everyone in front of you is doing the same), which is still a lot better than being turned away at the airport and losing your holiday. So this will involve a lot less hassle than it will outrage.

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

I've waited for over an hour to get through US customs, and my bags have never taken that long; if I even take any.

It might encourage folk to travel further for their fortnight on a beach, but they might like Spain.
I don't imagine 6 quid every 3 years will put anyone off a holiday anyway. People will rage about it for a while and then either pay up or join the slow queue.

I passed through Italian airport the other week. The non-EU passport queue moved at about the same pace as the EU one, lol, oh noooo how will we ever cope

Herzlos

Lornapink wrote: »

I passed through Italian airport the other week. The non-EU passport queue moved at about the same pace as the EU one, lol, oh noooo how will we ever cope

The plural of anecdote is not data. Every EU airport I've been through has had shorter faster moving queues for the EU passport holders, especially with the biometric stuff.

A slightly longer wait isn't going to do much for occasional tourists, but for the business travellers it's going to suck and just reduce productivity and profitability.

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

A slightly longer wait isn't going to do much for occasional tourists, but for the business travellers it's going to suck and just reduce productivity and profitability.

My friend regularly travels to Turkey on business, she says there are no time impacts, that she passes through airports at the same pace as she does EU airports.

Project Fear is almost dead, you guys really have nothing left to sell although you cling to the Irish border issue as a last Remain gasp.

Lornapink

Remainers, in a further referendum, what would be your key messages, given Project Fear is pretty much a laughing stock now?

Brexit campaigning would be dominated by positive messages about embracing change, innovation, exciting new opportunities as well as a great new deal to safeguard EU trade.
What positive messages would you sell?

mayonnaise

Lornapink wrote: »

Project Fear is almost dead

Lornapink wrote: »

given Project Fear is pretty much a laughing stock now?

Friendly reminder: Brexit has not yet happened, so stop rubbishing people’s fears

https://theconversation.com/friendly-reminder-brexit-has-not-yet-happened-so-stop-rubbishing-peoples-fears-92299

LHW99

but for the business travellers it's going to suck and just reduce productivity and profitability.

Or perhaps instead of actually travelling, a proportion of these journeys could be completed using the increasingly useful electronic means of communication we have available these days. The journey time could then be used to improve the productivity of the persons converned.
Most international journeys include a significant length of additional time out of the office, over and above the actual meeting times with persons abroad.

iro

Rebalancing of the economy from a consumer credit bubble to a true Brittelstand future based on core manufacturing in the regions!

Stock market up again.

Brilliant, Brilliant, Brexit!

Pauciloquent_1_2

ilovehouses wrote: »

As UK productivity and wages improve as businesses apparently invest in preparation for brexit GDP growth falls to 0.1% in Q1.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/januarytomarch2018

Jam tomorrow though.

Maybe if the continual barrage of impending disaster from Europhiles abated ......

Q1 growth has been lower than the rest of the year for a while.
Last year and the year before it was 0.2% and that was without two "Beasts from the East".
It picked up in the rest of those years and even the IMF predict that the UK will be ahead of both Japan and Italy in growth this year.

lisyloo

Or perhaps instead of actually travelling, a proportion of these journeys could be completed using the increasingly useful electronic means of communication we have available these days.

Do you really believe there are people and businesses spending money on travelling when a phone call or webex session would suffice?
I really don't think there are many.
I collaborate with colleagues in my job many times per hour. I could not do it as well remotely.