Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking

I think UKIP became defunct when as a result of the referendum result, Brexit became a mainstream goal for both main parties.
There is nothing toxic about leaving the EU, as remain supporters will find out if Brexit is fudged or reneged on.

mrginge

ilovehouses wrote: »

That's what I'm getting at. JRM hasn't got the numbers to oust TM and neither does he have the numbers to prevent the softer brexit that May's trying to deliver.

Fortunately for him he doesn't care about hard/ soft brexit, fish, vassal states - he just wants to be PM. So, when the deal has gone through he'll stab TM in the back, blame her for the deal but live quite happily with it.

He’s going’s to be deputy PM isn’t he?

Johnson is and always was an unelectable tool. Gove is the one you should be watching.

Couple of reasons. One is that they're dying - I suspect people get a bit more right wing as they age but the casual xenophobia of the hairy ear yesteryear brigade might just die with them. The other is that, IMO, brexit is getting to be a bit of a toxic brand and people will be less likely to want to be associated with having voted for it.

A bit like admitting to have once voted UKIP.

Agan this mantra of dead old people doesn’t stack up.
Old right wing people have been dying for years so when will the tories stop winning elections?
Those pictures of old farts at the Tory conference in 2017 are the same as the old farts at the Tory conference in 1979. Different people, same agenda and beliefs.

Your other reason is only true if you already dislike the idea of brexit.
Nobody that voted for it thinks it’s toxic, they want it sorting. A chunk of people who didn’t vote for it accept it and now just want it sorting. A lot of people are bored of hearing about it and just want it sorting and a few vocal remainers who still don’t want it are still jumping up and down because they think it’ll stop it. It won’t. It’ll be agreed and done in the next few months and then we’ll all get on with life.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

Of course you've interviewed all leave voters to prove this.



Another messenger shot.

No they're clearly not impartial but they have correctly pointed out some factual errors in the Sun article which rendered the conclusions of the article incorrect.

Yes just like you've interviewed all remain voters trying to prove the opposite. :wall:

And come on, we're talking The Sun here. You are the one who likes the phrase "stating the bleedin' obvious" but this time you're the guilty one. All because it doesn't suit your anti-Brexit agenda, well tough.

Inflation is down.
Employment is up.
Wages are up.
The economy is trundling along very nicely and we will soon be free of the EU.

Joyous times indeed ............ unless you're a remoaner it seems.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

That was the aim of Cameron's referendum promise. However, I think you might agree that UKIP's actions since the referendum i.e. not being able to run a party of the like minded have ensured UKIP will never be a problem to the Tories ever again.

The recent Italian election has shown how left unresolved. Problems fester into something much bigger and toxic. Seems as if the poorer southern half of Italy hasn't benefited from EU membership to the same degree that the others have.

mrginge

ilovehouses wrote: »

A promised promotion might be the reason for neck retraction. Something's going to give though - nobody really believes May's going to lead the Tories into the election do they?

It’s extremely doubtful, but we probably both thought she’d be gone by now.

So before the next election the party will need to choose a new leader. Maybe it will be Gove. I just can't see any of those three winning a GE.

Last time Gove wielded a knife he injured himself so maybe he'll choose the more reliable hatchet.

Like most things at the moment it’s a pointless speculation until the detail on brexit is finalised.

A 60 year old of 1979 was born in 1919 compared to 1957 for the oldie of 2017. I think the later oldie will have far more moderated views on race, empire and superiority than the earlier oldie and this is a trend.

Erm well obviously.
So the only explanation is that the tories have moved along with those moderated views and maintained their position.

But alongside changing attitudes on race, empire and superiority we have also changed on devolution of power and decision making at local levels. Hence why we have Scottish, Welsh and NI assemblies.
The EU is by definition the opposite of that movement towards devolution.

The idea that there's a production line of people waiting to be converted to the ear haired xenophobes of the future isn't something I believe let alone want to believe.

Are you saying you have to be an ear haired xenophobe to want brexit?
I thought you were slightly more balanced than that?
However, If you don’t want to believe things you’ve made up then stop making them up.

I'll repeat. Yesterday there were allegations of fraud and cheating in the leave camp - there's an emergency debate. It's not going to stop brexit because nobody ever believes advertising works on them but it flings a bit of dirt on the leave architects. !!!! sticks.

Just another bit of mischief making that’ll make no difference to the bigger picture.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

Every day - more good news. It's almost as if we aren't being held back by the EU.

Try telling that to Greece. Or Italy. And while you're at it ask the Poles or Hungarians how they feel about the EU's attempts at bullying them, or ... in fact no, just have a read:

In recent years, a succession of crises has hit the EU -- a credit crunch and bank failures threatened the eurozone membership of Greece, Cyprus and others, which in turn led to EU-imposed austerity programs. Waves of migration, some prompted by wars in Iraq and Syria, brought into question the Schengen area of border-free travel, and threatened the reign of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/28/opinions/eu-not-ready-for-brexit-king-opinion-intl/index.html

Your about-turns and squirming are amusing but provide no real basis for debate. If you could provide any theories which were supported by fact you might have some chance but your constant "I think" retorts count for nothing. But since you like opinions so much, here is another.

The Brexit process is neither a triumph nor a disaster !!!8211; but it is going well

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/brexit-negotiations-mark-wallace/

wunferall

Since the hoo-hah about Galileo has died down I though you might like to read this from the Times, by Airbus chief executive Tom Enders:

"The UK’s continued participation in the EU Galileo programme will ensure security and defence ties are strengthened for the benefit of Europe as a whole, during a period of increasing threats to our security and geopolitical instability,”

“Maintaining and enhancing security and defence ties across Europe is vital for all citizens across the continent. Irrespective of the UK’s membership or not of the European Union, the UK is an important part of Europe geographically, economically and culturally, and must play an integral role for our mutual security."

https://www.ft.com/content/a3eb07ac-3278-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

They considered the most likely scenarios for future relationships IMO. I'm looking forward to them updating the forecast as some of the unknowns become known. Who know it might even be discussed on here although the last one went down like a lead balloon.

Garbage in, garbage out. You can always get the results you want if you set the parameters.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Correction. Only the scenarios which they actually considered. They had a lot of help from the Civil Service who are worried that they may have to do some work for a change once they can no longer rely on Brussels to do it for them. If they actually considered ALL scenarios, some of the conclusions could have been very different.

Such as? What scenarios can you think of that will result in a positive impact on growth with Brexit?

JRM's slashing of workers rights?

gfplux

Day by day the list of the benefits of leaving the EU get............