Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Lornapink

ilovehouses wrote: »

The question is how much of a reduction in trade do we need to see before brexit isn't worth it?

There wont be any net reduction in trade, we said all along the trade deal is likely to be very good indeed, perfectly acceptable, whilst Remain told us the economy would crash, working class Brexiteers in the N East would regret their decision when hard times arrived etc

ilovehouses wrote: »

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/73209877#Comment_73209877
The 'they need us more than we need them' mantra looks less likely by the day

Lornapink

ilovehouses wrote: »

If there are increased barriers to trade then trade will decline compared to what it otherwise would've been and vice versa. Economics 101.

If you have a different economic theory release it to the world.

Imposition of trade barriers will be minimal, the net effect will be a nothing. But we're then free to make the most of global opportunities. Net gain. Common sense 101.

Moby

ilovehouses wrote: »

Here's the draft transition deal.

https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/draft_agreement_coloured-2.pdf

A deal agreed after some of the UK's 'red lines' were toned down. ECJ remains the UK's highest court until December 2020, the EU's outlandish idea for the Irish border has been quietly agreed as a backstop and there's a list of financial liabilities as long as your arm.

It's what I expected as I knew what a transitional deal was meant to achieve. Brexiteers will believe whatever the Tories tell them so everyone should be happy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/uk-and-eu-agree-terms-for-brexit-transition-deal Yes it appears we have surrendered in the required areas to agree the transitional deal. We'll have continuing access to the Single Market but wiill have no say in its operation. Chamberlain at Munich negotiating with Hitler was competent in comparison with this shower!

mrginge

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's what I expected as I knew what a transitional deal was meant to achieve.

Thank god you’re here to tell everyone how good you are at stating the bleedin’ obvious...

I’d prefer a bit of meat on the bones though so could you offer some further guidance on when this proletariat uproar is due to commence -

ilovehouses wrote: »

The question is how much of a reduction in trade do we need to see before brexit isn't worth it? If grocery prices go up and trade with the EU falls there's going to be a lag before alternatives (if any) are arranged.

And this ‘lag’. How long do we think? A year? Will it be before or after the true horror is fully upon us?

What do you mean by ‘isn’t worth it’? Surely we’ve left by then? Or are you in the leave and rejoin camp (like many others who keep kicking their massive can of denial further and further down the road)

Lornapink

Project Fear claim - we don't have skilled negotiators to progress Brexit forwards, the EU has many.


Barnier today - a significant step forward.
Ah, so we had negotiators after all then.

Lornapink

Moby wrote: »

We'll have continuing access to the Single Market but wiill have no say in its operation.

Day 1 Brexit claim; Plenty of countries export into Europe without having a say on the rules, so what?
UK exports into the USA, with no say on the rules, so what?

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

Here's the draft transition deal.

https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/draft_agreement_coloured-2.pdf

there's a list of financial liabilities as long as your arm.

Including a list of the EU's liabilities to the UK. Did you miss that bit?

mrginge

Lornapink wrote: »

Day 1 Brexit claim; Plenty of countries export into Europe without having a say on the rules, so what?
UK exports into the USA, with no say on the rules, so what?

Cue moby’s best Vicky pollard impression.

Arklight

Lornapink wrote: »

Japan, Australia & the rest have a lessor variety and more expensive foods?

Japanese supermarkets have much less choice than British ones. This is ameliorated by the choice they have being of Japanese food, which while it can take some getting used to is 10,000 times better than what passed for British food up until the late 90s.

Apart from seafood, most of their produce is imported from SE Asia, China, and the US. They have little other choice as Japan lacks arable land or young people to work on it. Japanese culture dislikes immigration and many Japanese will openly state they don!!!8217;t want Japanese purity being diluted by foreigners. Not because they are racist (they will explain) but because Japan is special and hard to understand, and foreigners wouldn!!!8217;t be happy there so they should find somewhere else suitable for foreigners, rather than being allowed to live somewhere they will be unhappy. Of course.

Even were floods of seasonal workers to be allowed in from SE Asia and China (after having taken a solemn oath not to enjoy being there and trying to stay) Japan's domestic agriculture would struggle to use them. Because Japanese farmers are nearly an endangered species outside of Hokkaido, the government enforces a raft of legislation that protects a hotchpotch of randomly placed inter generational micro farms producing next to nothing, often in built up areas, and getting large subsidies to do so.

Because the yen is in permanent deflation most people never notice their shopping bills rise so the 100 yen stores (dollar stores) have offered the same for decades,

Arklight

Richard_Overton_2911 wrote: »

You have no idea whether or not I'm overestimating automation because neither you nor I can tell the future but its safe to assume technology is moving faster than most of us can imagine. Less than 30yrs ago I used one of the first mobile phones which was the size of a car battery and you needed to walk up the nearest hill to get a signal, move on less than 3 decades and we can talk to people face to face over a mobile phone smaller than a bar of chocolate.We can control the heating and lighting in our homes from 6,000 miles away .

Like most Remoaners you claim to have the ability to predict the future and its getting a tad boring now.

And you call us Brexit voters Luddites when it comes to grasping new technology. The reason the UK productivity is lower than Germany is rather than by a £80k digger to do a job we employ 10 Poles with spades to do the same job but take 4x the time to do it.

Your post makes no sense. Lithuanians working here in Agri earning NMW for picking fruit whilst having their wages topped up with £thousands a year with tax credits and housing Benefits adds exactly what to UK GDP?. By the very nature of NMW jobs they pay next to zip all in tax until they have earned £11,500k so NMW they would pay around £1,300 in tax and NI.

That's about the only part of your post which makes any sense and I would agree with you 100% . In fact as a business owner I have been very critical of UK Govt's for the past 30yrs with their dire vocational training schemes.

Remoaner blah blah. Before you toddle back to the Daily Express comments section try and understand this. One day there will be a scenario where someone owning a nursery can power up their team of robots and watch them carefully walk through rows of potted plants and herbs, harvest them without damaging the plant, repot them, then mix and sort the leaves and remove the bad ones.

Until that time people have to do it.

Also I would suggest if you can’t understand how a nursery turning over 2 - 3 million pounds a year and employing a team of 50 people on NMW adds to our GDP then I would suggest you look at your fundamental understanding of economics. And not the Lalaland call everyone who doesn’t agree with you names Brexit version.