Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

So is there more to it than a guess? All the experts are saying a drop in GDP somewhere about 4-8% yet you think an increase by 1% so I'm curious as to your thought process.

Even assuming a 1% GDP increase, how long will it take to pay off the logistic costs if brexit; all the admin, paperwork, travel, new infrastructure and so on?

Even 5% of the population voting due to racism would have been enough to clinch a leave vote. Not that it's particularly relevant.

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

So is there more to it than a guess? All the experts are saying a drop in GDP somewhere about 4-8% yet you think an increase by 1% so I'm curious as to your thought process.

Which experts are predicting a drop in GDP?

vivatifosi

GreatApe wrote: »

q

I think we will get something similar to what we have. In the Long run brexit is likely to be a small net positive economically. And yes there is a factor of race at play most Brits very reasonably want the UK to stay as a Christian / Atheists nation and see brexit as a way of reducing migration to help slow the change down.

And most conservatives want the nation to be conservative (shock horror) and importing 500,000 voters who will mostly vote Lefty socialism isn't in their interest. However that will probably back fire in the short to medium term as brexit will mean many of the existing EU citizens who had no vote in the GE will soon get votes in the GE and they are going to punish the Tories

This doesn't make sense.

In the first of the two highlighted paragraphs you argue that most people want to see Britain remain a Christian/atheist nation and see Brexit as a way of reducing immigration. Yet you rule out being a member of the EU which is full of countries that are also Christian/atheist nations.

In the second paragraph you talk about most people wanting conservatism not lefty socialists, yet political analysts are saying that most countries in Europe are moving further right and the UK is the only country moving further left.

Enterprise_1701C

Everyone saying Brexit is a gamble, I suspect it is no more a gamble than remaining in.

A stated aim for the eu is that all the countries in the eu be within the euro by 2020. We all know that happens to vetos and exceptions within the eu, they disappear when they become a nuisance.

If we were staying we would almost certainly have to join the euro, they have not managed to wreck our economy yet, they would have aimed to get us in the same condition as Greece so that we basically could not leave.

And the eu army? Well, they would have demanded we gave over most of the personnel, ours is the best army in the eu.

As for all the ranting about the deals they "can" or "cannot" give us, no-one has left this way before, so no-one knows the rules, they are trying to make them up in their favour as they go, we have to convince them to come over our way of thinking.

At least with the transitional deal, if it happens, we will be able to negotiate our own trade deals, that is the most important part to my mind.

Carl31

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Everyone saying Brexit is a gamble, I suspect it is no more a gamble than remaining in.

Well this is the problem, the anti brexit gang seem to think staying in would mean we go back to the way it was, thats not going to happen. anything from now is unknown

StevieJ

GreatApe wrote: »

Don't be a cry baby nobody likes that
With a floating currency and free market capatilism we will be fine.

I think we will get something similar to what we have. In the Long run brexit is likely to be a small net positive economically. And yes there is a factor of race at play most Brits very reasonably want the UK to stay as a Christian / Atheists nation and see brexit as a way of reducing migration to help slow the change down.

You have hit the nail on the head there, a great many voters went erroneously for Brexit thinking it would reduce the none- Christian/Atheist populations. Strange as most European immigrants (especially from Eastern/Central Europe) are devoutly Christian?

Herzlos

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Everyone saying Brexit is a gamble, I suspect it is no more a gamble than remaining in.

A stated aim for the eu is that all the countries in the eu be within the euro by 2020. We all know that happens to vetos and exceptions within the eu, they disappear when they become a nuisance.

If we were staying we would almost certainly have to join the euro, they have not managed to wreck our economy yet, they would have aimed to get us in the same condition as Greece so that we basically could not leave.

And the eu army? Well, they would have demanded we gave over most of the personnel, ours is the best army in the eu.

As for all the ranting about the deals they "can" or "cannot" give us, no-one has left this way before, so no-one knows the rules, they are trying to make them up in their favour as they go, we have to convince them to come over our way of thinking.

At least with the transitional deal, if it happens, we will be able to negotiate our own trade deals, that is the most important part to my mind.

We could always leave the eu if any of that ever actually happened.

GreatApe

vivatifosi wrote: »

This doesn't make sense.

In the first of the two highlighted paragraphs you argue that most people want to see Britain remain a Christian/atheist nation and see Brexit as a way of reducing immigration. Yet you rule out being a member of the EU which is full of countries that are also Christian/atheist nations.

In the second paragraph you talk about most people wanting conservatism not lefty socialists, yet political analysts are saying that most countries in Europe are moving further right and the UK is the only country moving further left.

Migrants don't vote the same way here as they might in their home country
Even conservative leaning migrants once here are likely to vote left
I don't think the UK is moving left. Democracy just means a system of power where the ones in power change frequently. Since most countries have a left and right party it changes from one to the other and back again.

I think we would have voted to stay in if there was a way to vote to reduce non EU migration but that wasn't on the table.

As a guess on order of importance I think it was

1: Tories not happy about importing million of left leaning future voters
2: Tories & Labor voters generally not happy about mass migration of culturally different people who don't speak English
3: The narrative of the EU costing us £10 billion a year

I would say 90% of leave voters wouldn't change their vote even of it was 100% proven that there would be a small hit to GDP just as 90% of remain voters probably wouldn't change their vote if it was 100% proven that leaving would boost GDP would gain a small boost. So all the arguments about GDP going down or up are really irrelevant to 90%+ of voters

Also just to note I voted stay I was 60% stay 40% leave.
If the vote was again Im not sure which way I would vote I've moved more towards leave maybe 55% stay 45% leave.

mrginge

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'm just as likely to be on my bus with a rapist as not.

As a leave voter you're more likely to be on the same bus as a bunch of racists. I know you don't like it but that's how it is.

I think we can knock this one on the head now. Really we all know this fantasy bus is just a construct of your own desire to denigrate anyone who doesn’t agree with you. Bit of ego boosting because your world view has been shattered.

It’s standard practice really, so not unexpected. Just fun to see you in action.

It’s like someone claiming that any leaver who ends up saying they are happy once this all gets finished is a liar.

A load of liars sitting on a bus full of racists while the good bus full of remainers heads of to the coast for tea and scones.

The referendum is long gone. If you're unhappy about project fear and want to punish someone at the GE who do you vote for?

If something goes badly then the government of the day are in the firing line to take the blame. That's how it works. Ask Gordon Brown.

Yes, as stated previously we’ve already grasped this concept.

The tories seem to either not know this or are happy to sign their own death warrants. Bizarre isn’t it.
It’s almost like they don’t think it’s as big a problem as some want to make out. Again, I wonder if that could be because those people really really really want it to go wrong so they all feel better about being right in the end. I wonder ....

Moby

You can read about the climbdown here:- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/the-five-costs-of-uks-pyrrhic-brexit-victory The IFS is also predicting there will be no reduction in prices as a result of Brexit:- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/mar/20/brexit-wont-cut-overall-prices-in-shops-for-consumers-says-institute-for-fiscal-studies-politics-live?page=with:block-5ab0c8abe4b071417f655d88#block-5ab0c8abe4b071417f655d88