Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

GreatApe

StevieJ wrote: »

You have hit the nail on the head there, a great many voters went erroneously for Brexit thinking it would reduce the none- Christian/Atheist populations. Strange as most European immigrants (especially from Eastern/Central Europe) are devoutly Christian?

I think most Tories voted out because they can see millions of left migrant voters aren't going to do them good in the future politically

I think most Labor voters voted out because they believe that migrants take their jobs or cause stress on public services without creating any supply (wrongly IMO)

Of the two groups by far the most racist people I have known have been working class white voters. As a migrant myself I've had that group tell me straight to my face they don't like migrants and want them out. So I find it funny when people on the left try to paint the right as nationalist or xenophobic while they are pure and virtuous trust me the working class are far more nationalist and xenophobic

Also as a general rule I would say both left and right (but more so left) don't like any group that doesn't speak English and both groups probably believe migrants are a net drain on services as such a great many are anti migrant but more so anti non white Christian/Atheists migrant.

GreatApe

Herzlos wrote: »

So is there more to it than a guess? All the experts are saying a drop in GDP somewhere about 4-8% yet you think an increase by 1% so I'm curious as to your thought process.

Even assuming a 1% GDP increase, how long will it take to pay off the logistic costs if brexit; all the admin, paperwork, travel, new infrastructure and so on?

Even 5% of the population voting due to racism would have been enough to clinch a leave vote. Not that it's particularly relevant.

Well you either accept democracy or you don't and yes that means a racist vote has to be valued as much as a non racist vote. Your only option is to try and educate the public as to why racism is wrong.

Anyway the reason why I think brexit will be a small net positive is simply the large net contribution will not flo out any more. That is £10 billion a year in the uk which will boost UK GDP. Also if lower skilled lower productivity migrantion is reduced that will be a net benefit too. We could also control for things like age. For instance almost no one even the most pro EU voter would think a 60 year old migrant is a net benefit to the uk they will work 5-6 years and be on pension credits for 25 years after that. I would be pro having high migration of those age 30 or lower and very anti those aged 40 or over for simple economic reasons. Having control like that is a leaver to nargibally push prpducitivty and GDP up

Arklight

ilovehouses wrote: »

Rees-Mogg has broken cover...



Still, it has been two weeks of harmony in the government - a PB for the current PM.

:rotfl::rotfl:

I bet that's going to be an epic throw.

Use both arms, Jake.

Arklight

Rinoa wrote: »

It may add to our GDP. Doesn't make us one penny richer. The tax credits, housing benefits and public services required are just a drain on our resources. It would make more sense to import the fruit.

So make employers pay a living wage. Unfortunately your 'side' will vote against that as vigorously as they will vote against immigrants.

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

We could always leave the eu if any of that ever actually happened.

Given you state the reasons for Remaining are overwhelming, in a few years enduring life as an independent nation, we'll be holding a future referendum and re-joining.

Lornapink

I wonder if Remainers are so anti-Brexit as they fear the great unwashed will soon become accustomed to being a confident independent nation and thus will reject ever wanting to re-join the EU?

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

What makes our negotiators skilled?.because it certainly ain't conceding on everything.

Far from conceding on everything we've;


Established the EU is looking to sculpt a very good FTA.
Confirmed we may indeed negotiate & all but sign trade deals around the world during the transition.
Will fully take back control in Dec 2020.


I'm pretty comfortable that we're on target to achieve far more than the punishment deal Remain told me was our only fate.

Rinoa

Arklight wrote: »

So make employers pay a living wage. Unfortunately your 'side' will vote against that as vigorously as they will vote against immigrants.

Minimum wage higher under Conservatives than Labour even allowing for inflation. Conservatives have also substantially increased threshold when income tax becomes payable.

If you're on minimum wage you're now far better off than when Labour were in power.

The Government is also proposing to give those on zero hour contracts more protection from bad practice. Something Labour never did.

Matt_L

And remember Labours fuel escalator...

Moby

Rinoa wrote: »

Minimum wage higher under Conservatives than Labour even allowing for inflation. Conservatives have also substantially increased threshold when income tax becomes payable.

If you're on minimum wage you're now far better off than when Labour were in power.

The Government is also proposing to give those on zero hour contracts more protection from bad practice. Something Labour never did.

Of course the tories resisted the introduction of the minimum wage when it was introduced....you forgot that bit! You also forgot to add that when the tories increased it, the Labour Party were promising to increase it more. Increasing the income tax threshold was brought in during the coalition and was primarily the policy of the Lib Dems. Of course the general squeeze on public spending over the last 10 years has impacted far more than the measures you describe anyway. Those on the minimum wage will hardly thank you for our shoddy hospitals and bankrupt schools!