Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

chucknorris

Arklight wrote: »

You!!!8217;re overestimating the extent to which many agri jobs can be automated. Yes a tractor can sow a field in no time, it!!!8217;s useless when you've got a million peppers that need to be twisted without damaging the plant.

This a supermarket back in your golden days:



87% of what is on those shelves is a form of potted meat. A cucumber was considered fanciful.

People won!!!8217;t want go back to that and the food producers won!!!8217;t pay the wages that are required to get Brits to do dull backbreaking nursery jobs. All that will happen is instead of Lithuanians coming here to work in British food production, they'll stay in Lithuania to work in British food production and that food will be exported to Britain with no benefit to our GDP plus whatever duty we are forced to pay to get it over the border.

Brexiteers are the Luddites smashing the looms and thinking that the world has no way to make any more looms or anywhere else to put them.

Rather than trying to find silly self defeating ways to stop British people eating peppers twisted by Poles, you should concentrate on upskilling Brits to work in the global knowlede economy.

But surely you are overlooking the most important aspect of Brexit, the EU will no longer be able to stop us using more powerful vacuum cleaners!

Richard_Overton_2911

Arklight wrote: »

You!!!8217;re overestimating the extent to which many agri jobs can be automated. Yes a tractor can sow a field in no time, it!!!8217;s useless when you've got a million peppers that need to be twisted without damaging the plant.

You have no idea whether or not I'm overestimating automation because neither you nor I can tell the future but its safe to assume technology is moving faster than most of us can imagine. Less than 30yrs ago I used one of the first mobile phones which was the size of a car battery and you needed to walk up the nearest hill to get a signal, move on less than 3 decades and we can talk to people face to face over a mobile phone smaller than a bar of chocolate.We can control the heating and lighting in our homes from 6,000 miles away .

Like most Remoaners you claim to have the ability to predict the future and its getting a tad boring now.

People won!!!8217;t want go back to that and the food producers won!!!8217;t pay the wages that are required to get Brits to do dull backbreaking nursery jobs. All that will happen is instead of Lithuanians coming here to work in British food production, they'll stay in Lithuania to work in British food production and that food will be exported to Britain with no benefit to our GDP plus whatever duty we are forced to pay to get it over the border.

Brexiteers are the Luddites smashing the looms and thinking that the world has no way to make any more looms or anywhere else to put them.

And you call us Brexit voters Luddites when it comes to grasping new technology. The reason the UK productivity is lower than Germany is rather than by a £80k digger to do a job we employ 10 Poles with spades to do the same job but take 4x the time to do it.

Your post makes no sense. Lithuanians working here in Agri earning NMW for picking fruit whilst having their wages topped up with £thousands a year with tax credits and housing Benefits adds exactly what to UK GDP?. By the very nature of NMW jobs they pay next to zip all in tax until they have earned £11,500k so NMW they would pay around £1,300 in tax and NI.

you should concentrate on upskilling Brits to work in the global knowlede economy.

That's about the only part of your post which makes any sense and I would agree with you 100% . In fact as a business owner I have been very critical of UK Govt's for the past 30yrs with their dire vocational training schemes.

GreatApe

Food really is a non issue primarily becuade base ingredients are so cheap it doesn't matter if they are imported and secondly because a lot of food is substitutable.

In the UK 12% of our calories come from sugar. The world sugar price is only 20p a kilo.
That means we could import all of our sugar needs for just £290 million which is nothing just 0.15% of GDP

I would wager a guess we could import more than 100% of our base ingredients of food and pay for it with the EU net payments and still have a couple of billion left over

But this won't be necessary farming will continue in the UK post brexit
If wages go up in the UK due to less migration and farmers can no longer afford to pay the higher wages to plant peppers or whatever the land can be used to grow more productive more automated crops. If wages go up lots more and even those foods are now too costly to produce domestically then farmers will go towards the most productive foods eg just let it become grassland and let some sheep or cows grow on it.

Not being able to grow your own food competitively is actually a really good problem to have. It means as a nation we are so productive and so rich we moved up the skills tree and can easily afford to pay other nations for food imports. Although once more I don't think this will come to pass Tories and likely labor would sub the farmers to continue even if that means laying the Brits a few wuid more to plant turnips than they were paying the poles to do so

buglawton

Richard_Overton_2911 wrote: »

You have no idea whether or not I'm overestimating automation because neither you nor I can tell the future but its safe to assume technology is moving faster than most of us can imagine. Less than 30yrs ago I used one of the first mobile phones which was the size of a car battery and you needed to walk up the nearest hill to get a signal, move on less than 3 decades and we can talk to people face to face over a mobile phone smaller than a bar of chocolate.We can control the heating and lighting in our homes from 6,000 miles away .

Like most Remoaners you claim to have the ability to predict the future and its getting a tad boring now.

And you call us Brexit voters Luddites when it comes to grasping new technology. The reason the UK productivity is lower than Germany is rather than by a £80k digger to do a job we employ 10 Poles with spades to do the same job but take 4x the time to do it.

Your post makes no sense. Lithuanians working here in Agri earning NMW for picking fruit whilst having their wages topped up with £thousands a year with tax credits and housing Benefits adds exactly what to UK GDP?. By the very nature of NMW jobs they pay next to zip all in tax until they have earned £11,500k so NMW they would pay around £1,300 in tax and NI.

That's about the only part of your post which makes any sense and I would agree with you 100% . In fact as a business owner I have been very critical of UK Govt's for the past 30yrs with their dire vocational training schemes.

I thought that a major restriction had been legislated that prevented new EU immigrants from receiving housing benefits and tax credits for their first X years in the UK. Or was that fake news planted to deflect potential UKippers?

buglawton

chucknorris wrote: »

But surely you are overlooking the most important aspect of Brexit, the EU will no longer be able to stop using more powerful vacuum cleaners!

Erm, did you mean stop us using them?

buglawton

vivatifosi wrote: »

Out of interest, what industries do you work in Arklight and Herzlos?

I think there is a lot of the service sector nervous, as the easier negotiations appear to be around manufacturing.

Im in IT and Brexit bothers me not one bit on the jobs front. The biggest threat is outsourcing to India etc. If British IT workers can face that challenge then being outside the EU is a walk in the park.

GreatApe

Brexit isn't likely to be a big positive or negative its likely to be a small net positive or negative

The Germans have a choice. Let things continue economical as they are or force change upon the UK and as a result upon Germany and the rest of the EU

Whatever happens whoever is in power left or right isn't going to sit down and take a passive beating that simply isn't a choice available or acceptable to hs

I think we will get something close to what we already have but if not so what? Why is everyone so scared of the Germans.

Limit UK exports and the pound will go down. With the pound down what gets hit more the £60,000 BMW or the £10,000 ford? To make things worse for them of we feel we are under economics attack we can play this game too increasing VAT on cars to say 40% will mean many fewer expensive German cars imported and instead more affordable cars from Japan. Its really not the end of the world if there are fewer BMWs and Mercs on the road and more Fiat and Honda's. Less money flowing to the Germans and more left in the UK for UK consumption

Don't be cry babies this is a great nation with free market capatilism we will be fine.
As always domestic policy is the bigger beast that will impact us positively or negatively.
Comrade Corbyn is more likely to see us suffer a bigger hit to GDP than brexit

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

Im in IT and Brexit bothers me not one bit on the jobs front. The biggest threat is outsourcing to India etc. If British IT workers can face that challenge then being outside the EU is a walk in the park.

But IT is usually supporting something else that may be impacted.

There is a real possibility British IT will become more competitive if our currency or living standards drop enough.

vivatifosi

In terms of agriculture, won't it be the case that workers from outside of the UK will still be able to come here, the key difference being that the wages aren't topped up with in work benefits?

Certainly fewer people may come if they do a cost benefit analysis and it is not worth the effort, but with youth unemployment stubbornly high in places, surely some will still come.

Moby

According to The Guardian Cambridge Analytica and Facebook are one focus of an inquiry into data and politics by the British Information Commissioners Office. Separately, the Electoral Commission is also investigating what role Cambridge Analytica played in the EU referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/18/cambridge-analytica-and-facebook-accused-of-misleading-mps-over-data-breach

We are investigating the circumstances in which Facebook data may have been illegally acquired and used said the information commissioner Elizabeth Denham. Its part of our ongoing investigation into the use of data analytics for political purposes which was launched to consider how political parties and campaigns, data analytics companies and social media platforms in the UK are using and analysing peoples personal information to micro-target voters.