Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Enterprise_1701C

buglawton wrote: »

I thought that a major restriction had been legislated that prevented new EU immigrants from receiving housing benefits and tax credits for their first X years in the UK. Or was that fake news planted to deflect potential UKippers?

I may be wrong, but I thought that was one of the so-called concessions that the eu was going to allow us if we stayed in, we could put a temporary block on new eu immigrants receiving benefits.

"The Council would authorise that Member State to limit the access of newly arriving EU workers to non-contributory in-work benefits for a total period of up to four years from the commencement of employment. The limitation should be graduated, from an initial complete exclusion but gradually increasing access to such benefits to take account of the growing connection of the worker with the labour market of the host Member State. The authorisation would have a limited duration and apply to EU workers newly arriving during a period of 7 years."

buglawton

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

I may be wrong, but I thought that was one of the so-called concessions that the eu was going to allow us if we stayed in, we could put a temporary block on new eu immigrants receiving benefits.

"The Council would authorise that Member State to limit the access of newly arriving EU workers to non-contributory in-work benefits for a total period of up to four years from the commencement of employment. The limitation should be graduated, from an initial complete exclusion but gradeually increasing access to such benefits to take account of the growing connection of the worker with the labour market of the host Member State. The authorisation would have a limited duration and apply to EU workers newly arriving during a period of 7 years."

I actually thought it was one of the few concessions Cameron came back with on his somewhat empty handed return from his last EU negotiation.

What Cameron wanted and what he got:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105
“The Council would authorise that Member State to limit the access of newly arriving EU workers to non-contributory in-work benefits for a total period of up to four years from the commencement of employment.”

Trouble is, I have no idea if it actually happened or if/when it will happen. Hence my fake news suspicion.

gfplux

Richard_Overton_2911 wrote: »

You have no idea whether or not I'm overestimating automation because neither you nor I can tell the future but its safe to assume technology is moving faster than most of us can imagine. Less than 30yrs ago I used one of the first mobile phones which was the size of a car battery and you needed to walk up the nearest hill to get a signal, move on less than 3 decades and we can talk to people face to face over a mobile phone smaller than a bar of chocolate.We can control the heating and lighting in our homes from 6,000 miles away .

Like most Remoaners you claim to have the ability to predict the future and its getting a tad boring now.

And you call us Brexit voters Luddites when it comes to grasping new technology. The reason the UK productivity is lower than Germany is rather than by a £80k digger to do a job we employ 10 Poles with spades to do the same job but take 4x the time to do it.

Your post makes no sense. Lithuanians working here in Agri earning NMW for picking fruit whilst having their wages topped up with £thousands a year with tax credits and housing Benefits adds exactly what to UK GDP?. By the very nature of NMW jobs they pay next to zip all in tax until they have earned £11,500k so NMW they would pay around £1,300 in tax and NI.

That's about the only part of your post which makes any sense and I would agree with you 100% . In fact as a business owner I have been very critical of UK Govt's for the past 30yrs with their dire vocational training schemes.

So Brexit is all a gamble. Exchanging stability and what we think we know all for a spin of the wheel.
At the same time achnowledging the Government haven’t done what was necessary when they had the freedom to do so.

Britain is to be broken on the wheel of chance.

gfplux

GreatApe wrote: »

Food really is a non issue primarily becuade base ingredients are so cheap it doesn't matter if they are imported and secondly because a lot of food is substitutable.

In the UK 12% of our calories come from sugar. The world sugar price is only 20p a kilo.
That means we could import all of our sugar needs for just £290 million which is nothing just 0.15% of GDP

I would wager a guess we could import more than 100% of our base ingredients of food and pay for it with the EU net payments and still have a couple of billion left over

But this won't be necessary farming will continue in the UK post brexit
If wages go up in the UK due to less migration and farmers can no longer afford to pay the higher wages to plant peppers or whatever the land can be used to grow more productive more automated crops. If wages go up lots more and even those foods are now too costly to produce domestically then farmers will go towards the most productive foods eg just let it become grassland and let some sheep or cows grow on it.

Not being able to grow your own food competitively is actually a really good problem to have. It means as a nation we are so productive and so rich we moved up the skills tree and can easily afford to pay other nations for food imports. Although once more I don't think this will come to pass Tories and likely labor would sub the farmers to continue even if that means laying the Brits a few wuid more to plant turnips than they were paying the poles to do so

Yet another post from the betting shop.
Britain has exchanged the comfort and irritation with the EU for a spin of the wheel.
If a manager (the Government) of an established business (Britain) gambled his company’s future this way, not only would he be hospitalised but also accused of working for the competition!

gfplux

GreatApe wrote: »

Brexit isn't likely to be a big positive or negative its likely to be a small net positive or negative

The Germans have a choice. Let things continue economical as they are or force change upon the UK and as a result upon Germany and the rest of the EU

Whatever happens whoever is in power left or right isn't going to sit down and take a passive beating that simply isn't a choice available or acceptable to hs

I think we will get something close to what we already have but if not so what? Why is everyone so scared of the Germans.

Limit UK exports and the pound will go down. With the pound down what gets hit more the £60,000 BMW or the £10,000 ford? To make things worse for them of we feel we are under economics attack we can play this game too increasing VAT on cars to say 40% will mean many fewer expensive German cars imported and instead more affordable cars from Japan. Its really not the end of the world if there are fewer BMWs and Mercs on the road and more Fiat and Honda's. Less money flowing to the Germans and more left in the UK for UK consumption

Don't be cry babies this is a great nation with free market capatilism we will be fine.
As always domestic policy is the bigger beast that will impact us positively or negatively.
Comrade Corbyn is more likely to see us suffer a bigger hit to GDP than brexit

You first suggest the gamble of Brexit is hardly worth making, so why gamble at all.

Then you suggest starting a trade war with our ex partners using VAT.
Then an additional trade war using VAT with America where many of the expensive BMW are made.

You want to gamble and fix the dice against you.

Actually I do cry when I see the country of my birth take this act of self destruction that is Brexit and Now Brexiters are beginning to tell me its all a gamble.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

In terms of agriculture, won't it be the case that workers from outside of the UK will still be able to come here, the key difference being that the wages aren't topped up with in work benefits?

Certainly fewer people may come if they do a cost benefit analysis and it is not worth the effort, but with youth unemployment stubbornly high in places, surely some will still come.

Business needs certainty. Presently there is a small number of EU27 workers not turning up to pick the strawberries or wash the micro greens. Those numbers are rising season by season.
With the transition deal a few days away from being done that will take Britain to December 30th 2020 something needs or may happen. That!!!8217;s a lot of seasons over 31 months.

1) EU27 workers will continue to avoid the UK in growing numbers.

2) The agri business will invest the huge sums needed for automation

3) The Government will relax the restrictions on immigrants from other countrys allowing the tens of thousands of agri workers to be replaced by Indians, Egyptians, Indonesians or others while weakening our negotiating hand for a trade deal.

4) The agri business will move into the EU27.

5) Have I missed anything.

I dont know what will happen. I am guessing (gambling) Perhaps there are other things I have not mentioned. It may be a combination of all four or more.

Tell me that Brexit is not a gamble.

gfplux

Moby wrote: »

According to The Guardian Cambridge Analytica and Facebook are one focus of an inquiry into data and politics by the British Information Commissioners Office. Separately, the Electoral Commission is also investigating what role Cambridge Analytica played in the EU referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/18/cambridge-analytica-and-facebook-accused-of-misleading-mps-over-data-breach

In fact that was one of the topics my wife and I discussed yesterday as we came home from a weeks holiday seemlesly crossing a number of borders within the EU.

WHY did Britain vote the way it did.

We arrived at the following conclusion. Forgive the rounding.

17 million wanted a Gamble because perhaps life could be better

16 million dont like to gamble with their life and future

And worse of all

15 million couldnt care a monkeys

Its a great shame and an awful comment on society that a few million bots left 15 million completely uncaring.

gfplux

TODAY could be transition deal day.
Politico say this.
I say Industry will not like the uncertainty that the last couple of lines suggest.

QUOTE
TRANSITION MISSION: David Davis is in Brussels today for a pivotal meeting with Michel Barnier, at which officials hope the Brexit transition deal will be finalized. Senior sources on the U.K. side are optimistic of striking an agreement today that will see the European Commission formally recommend a Brexit transition deal for the EU27 to rubber-stamp later this week. DD flew into Brussels last night for dinner with his two most senior colleagues on the U.K. negotiating team sherpa Olly Robbins and Ambassador to the EU Tim Barrow. The trio will breakfast together this morning, before heading into a meeting with Barnier and his officials at lunchtime. If all goes well, a deal should be announced in a press conference shortly after.

But but but: Theres absolutely no guarantee we get a deal today. British officials are concerned the EU may try to exploit Britains obvious desire; some might say desperation for a transition deal in order to extract 11th-hour concessions on Ireland, the FT!
s George Parker reports. EU officials have briefed my colleagues Tom McTague and David Herszenhorn that one possible solution could be to agree the transition deal in principle this week, but reiterate that it will only come into effect in 2019 if the Irish border issue has been satisfactorily resolved.
END QUOTE

gfplux

Politico have this to say about fishing.
I wonder if that consultation on quotas will be conducted by Nigel Farrage as he was Britains MEP representing on the fishing committee.
It is rumoured that in five years he only attended one meeting. I can be corrected on that.

QUOTE
Horse-trading: As the FT reports, the final frantic negotiations over the weekend saw Britain largely back down on its demand for control over its own fishing quotas during the 20-month transition period. But my colleague Tom McTague has just been briefed by one senior official in the U.K. team who insisted they were not unhappy with the outcome. They pointed out that Britain has at least won a guarantee to be consulted on the quotas during the transition period; though how great the U.K;s influence will be remains to be seen. Similarly, the U.K. has been promised a consultation process for any other changes in EU rules during the transition and an agreement that both sides will act in good faith. The devil, of course, will be in the details.
END QUOTE

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Business needs certainty. Presently there is a small number of EU27 workers not turning up to pick the strawberries or wash the micro greens. Those numbers are rising season by season.
With the transition deal a few days away from being done that will take Britain to December 30th 2020 something needs or may happen. That!!!8217;s a lot of seasons over 31 months.

1) EU27 workers will continue to avoid the UK in growing numbers.

2) The agri business will invest the huge sums needed for automation

3) The Government will relax the restrictions on immigrants from other countrys allowing the tens of thousands of agri workers to be replaced by Indians, Egyptians, Indonesians or others while weakening our negotiating hand for a trade deal.

4) The agri business will move into the EU27.

5) Have I missed anything.

I dont know what will happen. I am guessing (gambling) Perhaps there are other things I have not mentioned. It may be a combination of all four or more.

Tell me that Brexit is not a gamble.

I agree that Brexit is a gamble and remind you that I voted remain and would do so again. Nevertheless, I don't see this as an insurmountable problem, certainly at the low skills end of the market as such labour is substitutible. I think at the high skill end of the jobs market it is much more of an issue.

As a pragmatist, I believe that not all Brexit issues are big ones. There are some on here who think that Brexit will lead to a land of milk and honey as well as others who see everything as entirely leading to going to he'll in a handcart. However I think the majority are in the middle, which ever way they initiaply voted. I do however accept that your position is a particularly difficult and am disappointed that nothing has been done yet to assuage the fears of both you and EU citizens living here.