Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

The UK electorate are the target audience.

As they're not negotiating with the EU they don't need to convince them of anything.

They need to convince them to let us have a say in any future EU trade deal even though we will not be in EU.

I hear a lot about fantasy and cake and eat it, it looks to me there is no difference between Tories and Labour in that respect.

Matt_L

Theophile wrote: »

The British electorate voted Leave as a knee-jerk reaction to - perceived - negative aspects of immigration.
The British electorate doesn't have a clue nor gives a fig about our ability to strike deals with the Philippines or Peru.
Customs Union should be an easy sell.

You may speak for yourself but you certainly don't speak for me nor the many i know that voted leave...

bermudianmark

We can't be sure what the long term affects of Brexit are, they may turn out to be more positive than remaining in. Uncertainty is certainly causing short term pain, but I think that will pass once we have left and some if not all of the lost ground will be caught back up.

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

Labour aren't in government so don't have to convince the EU of anything. It's the luxury of opposition.

Labour and the Tories both had big and important meetings about brexit last week. The agenda was the same for both - where are the votes and how do we follow them.

Personally I don't think the electorate give two hoots about the subject of a customs union.

I think the custom union depends on how it is presented, as you say Labour arent in Government so their plans are irrelevant unless they can convince enough Tories to vote with them not that easy when shove comes to push.

Filo25

Rough_Justice wrote: »

There's much to consider in what you say.

Regarding the UK custom union though insofar as discussed, it is unlikely for the very fact that we would still by default be a part of the EU.
In fact Norway's own EU minister Marit Berger Rosland has already said just a few weeks ago that a Norwegian-style agreement would not be good for the UK as it would limit the UK's decision-making powers.
As for Switzerland, well the EU's belligerence with them regarding passporting; free movement; and pushing for the Swiss to sign a treaty (which the Swiss resisted) is evidence of how strained Swiss/EU relations are.

Surely the Swiss/Norwegian model is for Single Market access rather than Customs Union membership, customs union has no implications for Freedom of Movement for instance so we could in theory restrict EU immigration, it would however block our ability to sign trade deals and would leave us a rule taker on quite a bit of regulation.

Certainly not the same as EU membership though, as Turkey can testify.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

I think the custom union depends on how it is presented, as you say Labour arent in Government so their plans are irrelevant unless they can convince enough Tories to vote with them not that easy when shove comes to push.

It sounds like May as going to push the Customs Union vote as an effective "No Confidence" vote in the government to put as much pressure as possible on the Tory rebels, that may work, of course it may just end up destroying the government's credibility.

If she can make some progress with the EU negotiations then a lot of these difficulties go away.

Rinoa

Arklight wrote: »

Great speech by Jeremy today. The thumb screws are on the prevaricating mess that constitutes the Tory government. There!!!8217;s a clear vision of what Brexit under Labour will look like, still no idea what Theresa May has in mind.

Here's what Labour voters thought. And in the Mirror too:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-plan-hasnt-12093689

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

It sounds like May as going to push the Customs Union vote as an effective "No Confidence" vote in the government to put as much pressure as possible on the Tory rebels, that may work, of course it may just end up destroying the government's credibility.

If she can make some progress with the EU negotiations then a lot of these difficulties go away.

I think it has a very good chance of succeeding they are politicians after all.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

It sounds like May as going to push the Customs Union vote as an effective "No Confidence" vote in the government to put as much pressure as possible on the Tory rebels, that may work, of course it may just end up destroying the government's credibility.

Does Labour have a competent front bench capable enough of negotiating the UKs exit. There's a thought. Labour beneath the surface are deeply divided.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Does Labour have a competent front bench capable enough of negotiating the UKs exit. There's a thought. Labour beneath the surface are deeply divided.

Labour's current front bench is basically terrible, apart from Starmer who while inexperienced politically at least has a track record of achieving something, the rest are largely there for their loyalty to Corbyn.

That said for all the posturing I don't think the Tory government would collapse if May was defeated on a Customs Union vote, although it would be difficult for May herself to survive.

I don't think Labour's divisions are quite as deep as the Tories but I agree that there are certainly divisions on the European issue.

I doubt there would be huge divisions on the Customs Union though apart from the usual suspects and there aren't huge numbers of them, if it was a Single Market vote it would be much more divided