Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

Lornapink wrote: »

Remainers ignore this ^ at your peril.

The right is enjoying a tsunami rise across Europe thanks to the democratic deficit.

Not if you read the words in the article:

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc gained 2.5 percentage points to reach 32 percent and the AfD was up 1 percentage point to 16 percent, the weekly poll showed on Monday. The SPD fell 1 percentage point to 15.5 percent

A poll indicating a 1ppt rise (15-16%) and moving from 3rd place to 2nd place by 0.5% does not make a tsunami.

Overturn Brexit & this will happen in the UK

Nah, polls are showing less and less people actually want Brexit these days.

and the cacophony calls for a referendum on English independence will rapidly deliver such a referendum

Nah.

as the Tory party would be decimated if it did not accede to such demands.

The Tory party is going to be worse than decimated (reduced by 10%) if it follows the extrememists into economic disaster, or ignores them by avoiding it. They are completely screwed either way. If they weren't, they'd be a lot clearer about their message and plans.

If you think we have a divided Britain now, you aint seen nothing yet chaps.

Oh I agree. Whatever happens, this mess has only just started.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

Yup, lots of Europe will suffer from an economically weaker UK. Doesn't mean they should prop it up.
You're having a laugh! It's already clear that the major growth of the next 20 years or more will be OUTSIDE the EU and given that the UK is globally #6 in terms of global GDP, what "propping-up" do you think the UK will need? There is a strong possibility that free of EU protectionism, the UK will grow whilst it is the EU that will suffer most as a result of Brexit.
Even now the EU are "headless chickens" just trying to sort out a budget because the UK is leaving.


Good for who?

Hopefully good for everyone.
Of course, the EU has to show willing .........................

Lornapink

gfplux wrote: »

The list is about areas and large groups not Country!!!8217;s. If you could be a bit more specific I would be very happy to add to my list.

Ok I'll play along.
Belgian confectionary / chocolatiers
Danish pork industry
French agriculture
Spanish agriculture
Italian agriculture.

This is pointless, LARGE numbers of European sectors would be impacted if their Govt's chose to disrupt their UK sales.

Your list seeks to frame the UK as that which will come off worse. We wont. NIMBLENESS is the name of the game in modern global trade, NOT SIZE.

Even on WTO we will thrive through mitigation by policy and innovation. All those numpty forecasts take no account of policy change and absolutely no account of how much faster we can act compared with the cumbersome EU.

As a quick reacting independent nation we could adapt and undercut European business in the blink of an eye whilst the 27 spend years chattering about what to do. Look at the reaction of US business repatriating vast sums of money (to be taxed), factories and jobs due to Trump's (lauded at Davos) economic policy. We could do similar if the EU wants to play hardball

Herzlos

Lornapink wrote: »

No one said 'they should prop us up'. You inserted that sentence to mischaracterise what I said.

You want them to give us a super duper deal because we buy stuff from them because of our economy. It's notionally the same thing.

I said, the main exporter nations to us have far to much to lose from disrupting their huge UK sales.

Except we're usually a smallish percentage of their sales, being a market about 10% the size of the EU.

M15/6 are orders of magnitude more important than anything the EU has.

How do you come to this conclusion?

Access to this has a cost...

It does. As does access to the intelligence services of the EU27.

That said, co-operation results in them becoming better than the sum of their parts.

wunferall

[QUOTE=Herzlos;73909509Whatever_happens,_this_mess_has_only_just_started.[/QUOTE]
TBH the only "mess" so far is in the misconceptions of some remain posters in this thread.

Employment & wages are up.
Investment at record levels and the UK deficit decreasing.
GDP growing steadily and no far-right- or extremist-held seats in our parliament.
Oh yes, that's a mess and make no mistake.

From the EU we get "Brexit will give UK workers cancer"!
Ridiculous I'm sure we can all agree, and yet this is the depths to which the EU stoops.
Ask yourself why?
And then ask yourself who's really in a mess?
Far-right extremists in their parliaments; disagreements over laws; squabbles over budgets; and migrants still an issue after three years!
Judging by the carp so far then it is the EU.

Herzlos

Lornapink wrote: »

NIMBLENESS is the name of the game in modern global trade, NOT SIZE.

Only in the small scale or if you don't understand global trade.

Lets use an example, mobile phone screens. Apple needs to buy 4 million screens from a Chinese vendor. My 2-man company needs to buy 100 screens.

I'm far more nimble, but who'll get the better deal?

Even on WTO we will thrive through mitigation by policy and innovation.

The forecasts don't factor them in because there has been no suggestion of policy or innovation changes, beyond reducing company costs via reduction in workers rights (called removing "red tape" or "barriers to business").
Even the logistics part of WTO is going to be a nightmare that'll directly reduce the nimbleness of our businesses (because WTO means to JIT), as we need to order components in in bulk weeks in advance. Tying up capital and running serious risk of dead stock.

As a quick reacting independent nation we could adapt and undercut European business in the blink of an eye whilst the 27 spend years chattering about what to do.

True, especially if we capitulate on everything.
But whilst we can make decisions faster, we're more likely to be the weaker party and a lower priority to other nations, which is why we're making such a big deal of being treated as if we're still in the EU when we leave - if it was so easy to make agreements we wouldn't need to ask other countries to copy the EU terms for us.

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

Not if you read the words in the article:

A poll indicating a 1ppt rise (15-16%) and moving from 3rd place to 2nd place by 0.5% does not make a tsunami.


.

The far right is surging across the EU, but hey, remain in the dark if you please, no skin off my little nose.

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

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Only in the small scale or if you don't understand global trade.

Lets use an example, mobile phone screens. Apple needs to buy 4 million screens from a Chinese vendor. My 2-man company needs to buy 100 screens.

I'm far more nimble, but who'll get the better deal?

Oh I see, so Japan, S Korea, Australia and other successful independent nations are all suffering some bizarre detriment on account of size.


Righto.....

Theophile

wunferall wrote: »

Anyway, you're late to that party because Theresa May discussed this in her speech in Munich just a few days ago. Did you miss it?

I liked the bit where she said the EU shouldn't let ideology get in the way of a cross-border security agreement.
The irony was probably lost on her. :rotfl:

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

Y
Except we're usually a smallish percentage of their sales, being a market about 10% the size of the EU.

No.
Wrong again.

Our "market" share according to the EU is 16% while we are a member and our GDP counts too, so obviously more once we are out and ours is not counted in with the EU's.
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170410-1

You're forgetting too that the EU sells us about £80 billion more per year than we sell to them.
They should IMHO pay us for access to our markets.