Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

cogito

Moby wrote: »

Don't be so naive....read my posts. The EU will make an example of us. Whether that is right or wrong changes nothing. It is hard politics. The point is we will be poorer and will go through a hard time because of it.

And yet you still support this despicable organisation.

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

Everone knew how they would react. It's no suprise. They have a project and we are a hindrance so will pay the price. People are making a mistake if they think this is just about trade. It isn’t.... Its highly political......that is why we will become poorer. We are outnumbered and outgunned by our nearest neighbours. They have no intention of allowing us to prosper on our own. They also know we have problems with the Irish border, a remainer majority Scotland and an almost split down the middle population. There is no unity in Britain and there isn't going to be anytime soon.

If they are worried we might prosper doesn’t that tell you something about them. We will have to wait and see what happens when some of the countries realises they might lose a large market.

cogito

Rough_Justice wrote: »

Yes, even Germans are unhappy now with the prospect of another Merkel-led coalition.
Many SPD members (who must still vote upon whether or not to accept plans for this coalition, remember) are unhappy at the prospect of another coalition, fearing that their already-lower support will further haemorrhage votes come the next election leaving them little chance of more say in a German future for many years to come.

If rumours I hear are correct, SPD members won't be getting the vote that Schulz promised them. Each constituency will get one vote which means that the Germans could finally have a government by the weekend with AfD as the official opposition.

Moby

cogito wrote: »

And yet you still support this despicable organisation.

......and you support a weak useless govmt that is taking us to hell in a handcart. They are being held hostage by idealogically driven extremists. Johnson, Gove, Rees Mogg, Redwood etc... All rightwing idealogues who have nothing to offer working people but are driving the agenda. How can people allow these idiots to decide our future?

buglawton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Meeting skills shortages by simply importing labour is a very short term view. As enables companies not to expend money by investing in younger people. Youth unemployment is very sticky. Without an opportunity to train in a skill people will struggle in this technological age. Unskilled retail and service orientated work isn't the way to create wealth for the country as a whole.

There was a nice piece on the Radio 4 Today programme about a week ago on UK productivity (the lack thereof), comparing the German situation. In Germany, rock-solid manufacturing apprenticeships, interviews with apprentices, some even speak English. They earn circa 800 Euros/month while acquiring very real skills. I'm 100% sure these schemes feed back into German quality, productivity and availability of appropriate skilled workers (so less need to import workers). The lack of proper Govt policy and 'make it happen' in the UK is very disappointing.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

......and you support a weak useless govmt that is taking us to hell in a handcart.

Do I? That's news to me. I didn't know that people who voted leave were all tory supporters.

LHW99

But I'm not going to sit on my Bum moaning and groaning, irrationally mouthing tired rejected arguments of 2 years ago, refusing to acknowledge that the UK has made its choice, and contributing nothing but negativity. It is a time for Brits to support the country, not try and sabotage our future.

So along the lines of Maynard Keyne's theory of "animal spirits":

If the ‘spirits’ are low, then confidence level will be low which will drive a promising market down even though the fundamentals of the market or economy remain strong. Likewise, if the spirits are high, confidence will be boosted among participants of the economy and market prices will soar. For example, the 2008 market was rife with financial innovation which was initially assumed to be a positive outcome until the financial instruments were riddled with tales of deception and fraud. At this point investor confidence dropped, a sell-off ensued, and the markets plunged.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/animal-spirits.asp

Or as one might otherwise describe it - a self fulfilling prophesy. Constant negative comments can send economies on a downward slide, while an upbeat outlook encourages positive outcomes.

kabayiri

Moby wrote: »

Everone knew how they would react. It's no suprise. They have a project and we are a hindrance so will pay the price. People are making a mistake if they think this is just about trade. It isn’t.... Its highly political......that is why we will become poorer. We are outnumbered and outgunned by our nearest neighbours. They have no intention of allowing us to prosper on our own. They also know we have problems with the Irish border, a remainer majority Scotland and an almost split down the middle population. There is no unity in Britain and there isn't going to be anytime soon.

It's not really a good idea to have a troublesome neighbour on your Eastern border, and an angry one on your Western border.

Germany should know this more than most. Fighting on 2 fronts isn't something they remember fondly.

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

The lack of proper Govt policy and 'make it happen' in the UK is very disappointing.

Manufacturing has been in decline for decades. Succesive Governments of all parties have attempted to arrest the decline. From such a low base will take time to rebuild. If at all.

Why bother with an apprenticeship when property speculation is so easy. Hopefully the tide is finally turning in this regard. With a culture developing of valuing skilled trades.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

So ultra low import tarrif countries like Singapore, NZ and Australia 'ought' to have failing economies?

It all depends on what goods they produce and export, wouldn't it? I understand they benefit based on the way their economy is structured, but I don't the same applies to us.

tracey3596 wrote: »

You asked a question?
Where?

I've asked it regularly on here every few months for the last year and a half. I've so far had zero replies.

When are you planning on answering mine towards you & phil from a few days ago?

Sorry, I was sure I had.
The reduction in growth figures, the drop in investment, consumer and business confidence, the businesses threatening to leave the UK if Brexit is bad for them, the poor exchange rate, the rise in xenophobia, our loss of reputation in the world, the risk of us being forced into a crap deal with the US, the loss of jobs in manufacturing and banking.
All things predicted and have come true. You'll deny them all of course, but they'll still be facts regardless.

tracey3596 wrote: »

Just for you a video.
From the mouth of a Belgian MEP no less.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/916247/Brexit-news-European-Union-EU-UK-latest-deal-vote-referendum-ITV

That's a lot closer, there's some feeling that some MEPs want to punish the UK. It's still a bit away from proof the EU wants to punish the UK, as you can find an MEP that agrees or disagrees with pretty much any statement.
I'll give you it though; some people in the EU want to see us punished, even if it's not "The EU itself".

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No they didn't. As has been shown recently it's the contempt and arrogance shown towards the British people that has created the much of the divide.

Contempt did make a big impact, and is probably to blame for the Leave vote - if you tell someone they are stupid for doing a stupid thing they usually dig their heels in.
That said, there's plenty of things that are blamed on the EU but aren't, like underfunding of the NHS, immigrants getting benefits (UK controls that), non-EU immigration, house pricing, poor infrastructure, poor job prospects.

I genuinely don't see any of their actual concerns being fixed by leaving the EU.

Cameron took the issue of FOM to the highest level. There was not the slightest interest in the pressures that the UK faces as a tiny island. With the influx of people in such huge numbers in an uncontrolled fashion.

Could that be because (a) it's a central pillar of the EU and (b) it's not actually an issue? It's been hyped to be a big thing, but it doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.

The problem with the EU. Is that it is undemocratic.

But it is democratic and is moving to become more democratic.

In an era of localisation, regionalisation and autonomy. The EU is still on the big is best path.

I'm not convinced that bigger isn't better. The world is getting smaller and being a bigger player on the world stage is a good thing. What we're doing is becoming a smaller, less integrated player and I can't see how that benefits us.