Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Remain now has a 10 point lead over Leave....

And that's not some Guardian poll... It's from the Tory Pollster in Chief, Lord Ashcroft.

The tide is turning faster and faster....

I wonder why you neglected to include this bit?

However, the public still remains largely opposed to the idea of another poll. Overall, 51% are opposed to a second referendum and just 38% are in favour.

:whistle:


http://uk.businessinsider.com/new-poll-ashcroft-scrap-brexit-second-referendum-remain-leave-2018-1

fewgroats wrote: »

Can we get back to democracy and get away from "popular wishes"?

According to those on here who disagree with a democratic decision apparently not.

Rinoa

Everything you need to know about the Brexit endgame in 5 minutes.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/01/18/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-brexit-endgame-in-five

Interesting take on where we are whether you're a remainer or brexiteer.

buglawton

tracey3596 wrote: »

"Don’t fixate on a second Brexit vote. Focus instead on trade"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/18/second-brexit-vote-trade-democracy

No doubt certain remainers on here will read the article and disagree but it makes sense TBH.

Which boils down to: A second referendum would be justified only if the circumstances have substantially changed. In other words, after a renegotiation of terms or membership.

Yet the whole reason Brexit happened is because the EU told Cameron before: The big don't negotiate with the small.

Well... the ball really is in the EU's court on this one. If they want to keep our net contributions and overall convenience of having the UK in the EU, it's Junker & Co who need to show they can turn on a sixpence and tempt the British Parliament into discussing a 2nd referendum. But I just can't imagine this EU elephant in ballet shoes. The EU thinks it's too big to fail and doesn't need to offer concessions.

buglawton

Rinoa wrote: »

Everything you need to know about the Brexit endgame in 5 minutes.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/01/18/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-brexit-endgame-in-five

Interesting take on where we are whether you're a remainer or brexiteer.

You can see where Politico is coming from...

"...a border using a combination of technology and mutual recognition... doesn't hold up. Even the most frictionless borders in the world, like US-Canada or Norway-Sweden, have checks."

Er, yes, but it works - it does hold up.

Here's fair description of the reality of that borders controls:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41412561

It's at a cost but increases Norway's security in particular, considering the vast EU territory it's connecting with. That border system could provide a template for UK's major ports too.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

Interesting take on where we are whether you're a remainer or brexiteer.

Yes, interesting article, and relatively balanced.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

Which boils down to: A second referendum would be justified only if the circumstances have substantially changed. In other words, after a renegotiation of terms or membership.

I'd argue things have substantially changed - public mood is a lot less behind Brexit than it was 18 months ago as reality is starting to kick in, and Brexit has gone from being trivial with full benefits to (as far as I can tell) pretty much impossible to implement.

Yet the whole reason Brexit happened is because the EU told Cameron before: The big don't negotiate with the small.

Well... the ball really is in the EU's court on this one. If they want to keep our net contributions and overall convenience of having the UK in the EU, it's Junker & Co who need to show they can turn on a sixpence and tempt the British Parliament into discussing a 2nd referendum. But I just can't imagine this EU elephant in ballet shoes. The EU thinks it's too big to fail and doesn't need to offer concessions.

The big still won't negotiate with the small, the EU doesn't have to do anything and will likely still keep our contributions if we want the deal we're asking for.

Carl31

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Remain now has a 10 point lead over Leave....



And that's not some Guardian poll... It's from the Tory Pollster in Chief, Lord Ashcroft.

The tide is turning faster and faster....

i think the last thing anyone should do with regards to the Brexit vote is rely on polls, remember what happened last time? we were remaining according to that lot.....

Polls can tell you what you want to hear, if you ask the right people

Honey_Badger

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Remain now has a 10 point lead over Leave....



And that's not some Guardian poll... It's from the Tory Pollster in Chief, Lord Ashcroft.

The tide is turning faster and faster....

You didn't really read the graphic you posted did you? it's not one asking for people's voting intentions but instead asks

...what do you think the result would be?

In the first referendum I voted for Brexit, but if asked about the result I would have predicted remain would win.

Interpreting such a poll as a ten point lead for remain is rather misleading.

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

I'd argue things have substantially changed - public mood is a lot less behind Brexit than it was 18 months ago as reality is starting to kick in, and Brexit has gone from being trivial with full benefits to (as far as I can tell) pretty much impossible to implement.

The big still won't negotiate with the small, the EU doesn't have to do anything and will likely still keep our contributions if we want the deal we're asking for.

The public has mood swings based on whichever current media and politicians are getting its attention. Meanwhile peoples daily lives have hardly changed at all.

So we are at least agreeing, the EU is not going to change it's stance on the basic deal. So no cause for a 2nd referendum. I think the EU still locked into a 'we are too big to fail' mode. A bit like Carillion was, really.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

Herzlos wrote: »

I'd argue things have substantially changed - public mood is a lot less behind Brexit than it was 18 months ago as reality is starting to kick in

There is no reality yet, there is only posturing from both the British and the EU sides. The latter has a particular interest in making leaving sound as bad as possible, in the hope that will scare us back into staying.