Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

tracey3596 wrote: »

All rubbish - and all meant to distract from the very real fears within the EU itself.

Germany is still very much pro Europe. The loss of Merkel would probably make the exit process even convoluted.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

We already know Brexit is somewhere around number 5 in the priorities list for most countries so nothing has changed there either.

Unless it's our money they want. Then the tune changes.

Herzlos

tracey3596 wrote: »

Ah, you decided to edit after my post.
:rotfl:

No, what "It kind of suits" is the "look, Germany is in fact even less stable than the UK" and the "look, Merkel's position really is more precarious than May's" narrative.

Right, so it's nothing to do with Brexit, then?

On the positions; May is only the PM because no-one else wants it, needs to rely on a far right fringe party to get a majority and seemingly can't control her own cabinet. Unless Merkel retires, she'll be a thing in politics long after May has vanished. She'll also cmmand more respect and be better remembered by history.

gfplux

While many posters concern themselves with trying to second guess German politics they appear to ignore what the President of France has to say while on British soil.
This is what he had to say in the joint press conference as reported by Bloomberg.

——
“Britain must pay into the European Union budget and accept the jurisdiction of EU courts if it wants its banks to keep full access to the bloc's markets after Brexit, French President Emmanuel Macron said, piling conditions on Prime Minister Theresa May that breach her red lines.

Speaking alongside May after a daylong Anglo-French summit near London, Macron said his overriding goal in the Brexit negotiations is to ensure that "the single market is preserved, because that is very much at the heart of the European Union".

He said it’s "very much" up to the UK to decide what it wants.

"I am here neither to punish nor to reward the UK," Macron told reporters at the conclusion of the summit.

"You want to accept a single market with finance being part of it? Be my guest, but that means financial contributions and accepting European jurisdiction."
——-
https://luxtimes.lu/european-union/32524-macron-tells-may-be-my-guest-in-eu-market-but-accept-the-rules

gfplux

So the present most powerful person in the EU27 invites Britain to continue to pay if they want any deal to cover financial services. He also says that Britain has to except the rulings of the ECJ which no one needs reminding is one of Mays red lines.
I wonder if he will repeat that in the TV interview being shown on Sunday morning?

Too many people spend too much time wondering what Germany has to say when it should now be very clear that the French President is very very pro the EU.

tracey3596

Herzlos wrote: »

Right, so it's nothing to do with Brexit, then?

On the positions; May is only the PM because no-one else wants it, needs to rely on a far right fringe party to get a majority and seemingly can't control her own cabinet. Unless Merkel retires, she'll be a thing in politics long after May has vanished. She'll also cmmand more respect and be better remembered by history.

You're having a laugh!
Merkel will be remembered, you're right there.

* As the woman primarily responsible for Brexit.
* As the woman responsible for hordes of refugees and migrants entering Europe's borders.
* As the woman subsequently responsible for costing the EU many billions of Euros, both in bribes to Turkey and in costs associated with handling these refugees/migrants.
* As the woman subsequently responsible for the ongoing rise of populism and extremism across the EU.

As for retiring, nah. She's toast. She just won't accept it yet.
https://www.politico.eu/article/spd-cdu-grand-coalition-german-social-democrats-reject-new-deal-with-angela-merkel/
http://www.dw.com/en/the-young-spd-politician-who-could-topple-angela-merkel-and-martin-schulz/a-42200023

Germans are however very pro-EU as Thrugelmir correctly points out. And yes another election might well make Brexit even more convoluted a process - but it will certainly also lead to a more-fractured Germany and also therefore to a more-fractured EU.

Because that would leave Macron as de facto EU "head" and he is all for further integration, and quickly too.
We have already seen how much of the EU dislikes this increase in federalism. If Macron achieves his aim with no competent opposition there will undoubtedly be major upset within the EU.
We are already seeing preliminary rumblings.

Should this happen (and let's be frank, it is starting to look more and more likely) it will be better for the UK to be either outside or on the fringes rather than in the midst.

In that event Herr Schloss I very strongly suspect that many will be extremely grateful for Brexit.

tracey3596

That's funny gfplux.
Because I thought Michel Barnier was Chief Negotiator for the EU.
Has that changed and someone put Macron in charge?
:whistle:

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

Right, so it's nothing to do with Brexit, then?

On the positions; May is only the PM because no-one else wants it, needs to rely on a far right fringe party to get a majority and seemingly can't control her own cabinet. Unless Merkel retires, she'll be a thing in politics long after May has vanished. She'll also cmmand more respect and be better remembered by history.

You'd think so wouldn't you.
It probably doesn't fit with your 'UK rubbish, everywhere else wonderful' narrative but Merkel has had a pretty woeful couple of years. Brexit was a geo-political failure for the EU and as the dominant EU nation ergo a major failure for Merkel and Germany also.
Merkel`s come one, come all immigration policy has unwittingly installed 94 fascists in the Bundestag and she has gone from the the de facto Leader of the Western of World, to someone who is struggling to be the leader of Germany. Even she does hang on , she is hopelessly weakened.
That said, TM is on the face of it a very ordinary politician.

gfplux

tracey3596 wrote: »

That's funny gfplux.
Because I thought Michel Barnier was Chief Negotiator for the EU.
Has that changed and someone put Macron in charge?
:whistle:

It is funny Tracey as many posters on here kept saying Barnier was only doing what he was told (by Germany). We now know some of his instructions for phase 2 as described by Macron.

gfplux

Looks like Toyota are putting their money in a new model in FRANCE.
This is lead news tonight on TF2 with 700 new jobs being claimed.
This article says that the news will be “official” on Monday when Macron visits the factory.
http://europe.autonews.com/article/20180119/ANE/180119652/toyota-will-build-second-model-at-french-plant-paper-says

This has as much to do with Brexit as half the posts in the last two pages.