Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Rinoa

phillw wrote: »

He doesn't necessarily get to decide that. It would be very embarassing for the debt to be chased in the UK court. Whether they decide to force the government to pay or not.

If we don't pay it then we can forget any decent trade deal with any other country.

Not that we're going to get a decent deal with the EU either, because if we do then we can forget any decent trade deal with any other country.

But lets keep waving our flags pretending we're clever.

The Govt, the EU and every other country in the world are perfectly aware there's no money if no deal. There's no embarrassment in not paying debts we don't owe. Future trading partners perfectly understand this.

Only bitter remainers want to believe otherwise.

gfplux

Assuming Britain and the EU move on to phase two in the new year it might be useful to examine what the EU are proposing. Barnier and others have mentioned the Canadian trade deal as a model.
This is an "analysis" of what that might mean. I am not claiming infacts are anything but biased against Brexit but in the absence of any other analysis this is all I have.

https://infacts.org/exactly-canada-style-deal/

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"The European Commission believes that the only plausible future economic relationship between the EU and the UK is one modelled on the EU’s free trade agreement with Canada. Michel Barnier made that clear on Friday after the Commission and the UK agreed the broad outlines of our divorce agreement. The British hope to achieve something better than Canada in the next phase of the Brexit talks. David Davis said told the BBC today that he wanted “Canada, plus, plus, plus“. But, if he can’t get any of the pluses, a “Canada Dry” deal would pose problems for the UK economy.

What “Canada” offers

The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) has been lauded by the EU and Canada as “the gold standard for future trade deals”. It abolishes almost all tariffs on goods, with most eliminated immediately, and some phased out over three to seven years. The agreement also reduces some non-tariff barriers, promising greater cooperation between Canadian and EU regulatory authorities.

The agreement establishes mutual recognition of Conformity Assessment Bodies in some sectors, for instance for machinery and electrical goods, meaning that the EU allows Canada’s assessment bodies to certify that goods made in Canada meet European standards, and vice versa. This is narrow in scope, and does not mean mutual recognition of the standards themselves. Furthermore, these mutual recognition agreements do not cover sectors that are important for the UK, like chemicals, food and drink, so such products would need to be checked at the border.

CETA offers improved access to some services markets, like telecoms, energy and maritime transport, and allows firms to bid for public procurement contracts in the other market.

What “Canada” misses out

But Canada without any pluses would not suit the UK at all well. A CETA-style deal would be a step backwards from the harmonisation of standards and mutual recognition that the UK enjoys as a member of the single market. Some agricultural products are excluded, such as poultry and eggs, while 15 types of fruit and vegetables face tariffs of up to 20%.

The deal also fails to achieve any significant mutual recognition of technical standards. Nothing is established, for instance, on medicines, cars or on the labelling and regulation of agricultural products. Non-tariff barriers in such areas would increase costs for UK exporters and disrupt trade flows.

In some areas, Canada has agreed to abide by EU rules without reciprocation by the EU. Whereas Canada has no say in setting EU rules and standards, all exports into the EU must meet its product regulations, which are more stringent than Canada’s.

CETA has required some legislative changes in Canada, for instance on its Patent Act and its Food and Drug Act, while its businesses are aligning to European standards in many sectors like food, chemicals and electrical equipment. In contrast, the EU has not changed a single technical regulation in response to the agreement. The UK should expect similar asymmetry in any future free trade agreement with the EU: if it wants to minimise the friction of trading with the single market, it will need to maintain European regulations, just like any other non-EU country."

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There is plenty more to read.

phillw

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

You can't chase something through the UK court unless you can refer to UK legislation - it will be rejected before any hearing. There isn't any such legilsation to cover the "divorce bill".

The divorce bill is made up of legally enforceable debts.

Rinoa wrote: »

The Govt, the EU and every other country in the world are perfectly aware there's no money if no deal. There's no embarrassment in not paying debts we don't owe. Future trading partners perfectly understand this.

Your delusion speaks for itself. The loony leavers have destroyed the UK's reputation around the world.

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

On this, I agree. We won't get a decent deal with the EU. It will end up as a straight choice between leaving on default WTO terms, and staying.

Yeah & WTO is a pretty terrible deal. It's very bureaucratic, has lots of rules, quotas and limits to what you can and can't do. America is currently trying to destroy the WTO. Plus it would seem to guarantee a restart of the troubles in ireland.

A canada +++ deal essentially appears to be out of the question thanks to all the other non EU countries. One day the leavers might actually learn something about what it takes to work alongside others.

I reckon if BoJo gets Conservative leader post then he'll switch and say vote for me and I'll reverse the decision to leave the EU & he'd get elected.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

phillw wrote: »

The divorce bill is made up of legally enforceable debts.

Enforceable under which law?

gfplux

This about David Davis on Sunday TV from Politico Sunday EMail

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"Trade hopes lost in translation: On Marr, Davis was crystal clear — the U.K.’s goal is “Canada, plus, plus, plus” with everything tied up bar a few final tweaks before March 29, 2019. For the Brexit secretary this means a trade deal including services with no tariffs on goods at all. In Brussels, this is seen as fantasy. First, officials say there will simply not be any trade talks before Britain leaves, only an agreement about the “framework” of a future arrangement with the details negotiated during the transition and beyond. The Observer reported that EU officials dismiss the chances of there being a bespoke deal more favorable to the U.K. than other non-EU countries."

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I had always thought that trade talks would commence in Phase two so I am confused about the "framework"
Well if they do move on to phase 2 we will not have long to Waite to find out.

System

phillw wrote: »

I reckon if BoJo gets Conservative leader post then he'll switch and say vote for me and I'll reverse the decision to leave the EU & he'd get elected.

Wouldn't surprise me.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

The divorce bill is made up of legally enforceable debts.

Was the UK bearing the cost of relocating EU agencies contractual. No, it wasn't. The EU set out a list of demands that was compromised on. That's the reality. Time to move on. Rather than repeat incorrect statements.

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Was the UK bearing the cost of relocating EU agencies contractual. No, it wasn't. The EU set out a list of demands that was compromised on. That's the reality. Time to move on. Rather than repeat incorrect statements.

And they have now dropped that demand.

Moby

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/11/theresa-may-tell-ireland-nothing-agreed-terms-brexit-row-deal/
I'm personally a lot happier after last weeks farce. May has caved in and faced the reality that a hard brexit is something we cannot countenance. Judging by the cabinet infighting the problems she faces are from the hard brexiteers. Let's hope she faces them down.

vivatifosi

Moby wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/11/theresa-may-tell-ireland-nothing-agreed-terms-brexit-row-deal/
I'm personally a lot happier after last weeks farce. May has caved in and faced the reality that a hard brexit is something we cannot countenance. Judging by the cabinet infighting the problems she faces are from the hard brexiteers. Let's hope she faces them down.

The issue is that the cabinet are all quite happy briefing against each other and against the deal. Even if the likes of Davies thinks the deal can be broken, he should keep it zipped until the whole deal is done or not done, or it makes him look like a dishonest broker. It's as though they can't help themselves.