Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

posh*spice

We are leaving the EU (which is about to become the United States of Europe .)

We will be an independent country. We will sign FTAs all of which will require regulatory alignment.

:beer::beer::beer::beer:

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Eire might just change it's tune towards the EU when that nice Danish lady in the EU goes after their treatment towards Apple et al.

The country's days as a low tax rate EU member may become a thing of the past.

They can come join the UK outside the Union, and perhaps enjoy Guiness prices at £4 a pint, and not what you get charged in Dublin!

Apple has already moved it's European tax base to Jersey (actually started to do so in 2015). Indicating that the major US Corporates are a couple of steps ahead of the regulators. This week's published blacklist. Is the EU's attempt to tackle the issue on a broader scale.

Guiness is manufactured in Dublin then transported to East Belfast where it is canned. Then transported back to Dublin for shipment to the UK via Holyhead. Guiness used to be manufactured in North London (Park Royal). Now all the Guiness consumed in the UK is imported. No wonder that a hard border isn't on the agenda. As the impact would affect the product price in the UK. A major Eire export as well.

Enterprise_1701C

buglawton wrote: »

I think that something like a 'phoney Brexit' will indeed exist for many years after 2019. Doesn't matter. I consider it to a the springboard from which the UK might one day jump to a genuine Brexit. Or... if the EU behaves well, even reforms itself, we might just stay as close as the Norway model. The number of years it takes could be a decade. Doesn't matter when you take the long view.

I cannot see the eu reforming itself whilst the germans are in the driving seat, they are desperately trying to take over the world, the way they failed to do in two world wars.

I voted to stay in, but the recent attitude of the eu and the direction it is heading in has made me realise that we are best getting out, and if the court action against places like Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary (for not taking their allotment of refugees that Merkel single handedly invited in) continues it will start the dominoes falling, they may like the money they get out of the eu but they do not want hundreds of thousands of moslems in their countries. Merkel referred to no-one when she invited them in, just assumed that the eu would do as she said and let them in. They are Christian countries that, less than a century ago, lived under constant threat from The Ottoman Empire, it is still something they are recovering from. If they are ordered to take these moslem refugees they will leave.

Rinoa

ilovehouses wrote: »

The Guardian are quoting an unnamed official who is suggesting the EU is under pressure from non-members not to allow a trade deal which puts the UK in a comparatively advantageous position.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk

Indeed. Still plenty of opportunities yet for a no deal.

In other news David Davis confirms no deal = no divorce money.;)

Zero_Gravitas

Rinoa wrote: »

Indeed. Still plenty of opportunities yet for a no deal.

In other news David Davis confirms no deal = no divorce money.;)

And we all know just how good David Davis is at confirming things....

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

One advantage of brexit is it's forcing businesses to consider how they could save money if there are tariffs etc to consider.

Guinness seem to have plenty of options and a consumer base that appears not to mind paying through the nose to fund an inefficient supply base. Not the worst of positions to be in.

If you look at which brands are doing well and which are struggling, you will see a move towards more niche products. Small breweries with a distinctive offering are making ground, as are things like the trend for speciality gin.

It's actually tough times for an outfit based around a traditional product like Guiness or Coke. Coke has seen circa 5% drop in UK sales in each of the last couple of years. All suppliers will have to work hard to maintain profitability, particularly during the Brexit window.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

One advantage of brexit is it's forcing businesses to consider how they could save money if there are tariffs etc to consider.

Far from cheap to build a brewery from scratch. Decisions for major manufacturers have to be made with long term views. Smaller companies can be more nimble and adjust far quicker. As the growth in micro breweries has shown.

phillw

Rinoa wrote: »

Indeed. Still plenty of opportunities yet for a no deal.

In other news David Davis confirms no deal = no divorce money.;)

He doesn't necessarily get to decide that. It would be very embarassing for the debt to be chased in the UK court. Whether they decide to force the government to pay or not.

If we don't pay it then we can forget any decent trade deal with any other country.

Not that we're going to get a decent deal with the EU either, because if we do then we can forget any decent trade deal with any other country.

But lets keep waving our flags pretending we're clever.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

phillw wrote: »

It would be very embarassing for the debt to be chased in the UK court

You can't chase something through the UK court unless you can refer to UK legislation - it will be rejected before any hearing. There isn't any such legilsation to cover the "divorce bill".

Eric_the_half_a_bee

phillw wrote: »

H
Not that we're going to get a decent deal with the EU either

On this, I agree. We won't get a decent deal with the EU. It will end up as a straight choice between leaving on default WTO terms, and staying.