Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

fatbeetle

I'm glad I do not live in your world Mr Ginge.

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

So after two years of hard negotiations, the eurozone streaking ahead while we stagnate, thousands of jobs relocating into the EU, mitigation and future planning being implemented at high cost and finally no need for our money.

Why are they going to want or let us back in?

Because they'll still be better off with us in the union that out. Especially if we lose all of our juicy perks.

Conrad wrote: »

Spain, Greece with huge unemployment and very reliant on the British tourist will benefit how if Uk trade is harmed?

I still maintain a good deal is obviously going to be done unless the EU (not European citizens) are so vindictive that they wish to harm Spanish hotel owners, Greek restaurant cooks and Irish beef farmers.

A good deal will be done when the UK offers the EU something it can accept. The EU has no intention of being vindictive or harmful to anyone.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Because they'll still be better off with us in the union that out. Especially if we lose all of our juicy perks.



A good deal will be done when the UK offers the EU something it can accept. The EU has no intention of being vindictive or harmful to anyone.

From what I can tell the only thing the EU are prepared to accept is total capitulation.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Especially if we lose all of our juicy perks.

Then why remain? If the UK simply becomes an even bigger contributor than it already is.

You are overlooking the fact that Brussels is itself highly political. Somewhat detached from the people it purports to represent.

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

Because they'll still be better off with us in the union that out. Especially if we lose all of our juicy perks.

Hang on, so not only are we going to go back in, we are going to give up our rebate and other ‘perks’ to do so.

Are we going to join schengen and the eurozone too?

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Then why remain? If the UK simply becomes an even bigger contributor than it already is.

Because that's still significantly better for us than a bad deal.

ukcarper wrote: »

From what I can tell the only thing the EU are prepared to accept is total capitulation.

Only because the UK haven't given them anything to work with. The EU does, however, have a very clear stance on most subjects and all of the cards, so there will naturally be more concessions from the UK (who don't seem to have moved forward from the outrageous opening offer).

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Because that's still significantly better for us than a bad deal.



Only because the UK haven't given them anything to work with. The EU does, however, have a very clear stance on most subjects and all of the cards, so there will naturally be more concessions from the UK (who don't seem to have moved forward from the outrageous opening offer).

What was the Florence speech.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

What was the Florence speech.

A tiny step in the right direction... With many miles of walking still ahead.

The EU has been perfectly clear both before and after the referendum that there are a number of options on the table - but there will be no 'Europe a la carte'.

There are a range of existing mechanisms that could be simply and quickly negotiated, such as the EEA or EFTA, and those options are always on the table.

But if we want to have the maximum possible access to the single market, as we do today, we'll have to continue accepting the rules of that market, paying a contribution to the maintenance of that market, and respecting the four freedoms of that market.

If we choose to have markedly inferior access to the single market, versus what we have now, then we can restrict those freedoms, but we'll pay a heavier price than the EU will.

As that will come at a heavy cost to trade, the economy, and our standards of living... and compensating for those losses elsewhere will be at best difficult and risky and at worst impossible.

What we are not going to get, and there was never any prospect of us getting, was the delusional 'have cake and eat it' deal that the Brexiteers promised.

You know, just a year or two ago, when Reese Mogg, Davis, Boris, Fox et all were loudly shouting that the EU would be the supplicants here and beg us for a deal.

That isn't happening - and was always a fantasy.

ukcarper

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A tiny step in the right direction... With many miles of walking still ahead.

The EU has been perfectly clear both before and after the referendum that there are a number of options on the table - but there will be no 'Europe a la carte'.

There are a range of existing mechanisms that could be simply and quickly negotiated, such as the EEA or EFTA, and those options are always on the table.

But if we want to have the maximum possible access to the single market, as we do today, we'll have to continue accepting the rules of that market, paying a contribution to the maintenance of that market, and respecting the four freedoms of that market.

If we choose to have markedly inferior access to the single market, versus what we have now, then we can restrict those freedoms, but we'll pay a heavier price than the EU will.

As that will come at a heavy cost to trade, the economy, and our standards of living... and compensating for those losses elsewhere will be at best difficult and risky and at worst impossible.

What we are not going to get, and there was never any prospect of us getting, was the delusional 'have cake and eat it' deal that the Brexiteers promised.

You know, just a year or two ago, when Reese Mogg, Davis, Boris, Fox et all were loudly shouting that the EU would be the supplicants here and beg us for a deal.

That isn't happening - and was always a fantasy.

There were some quite big concessions in that speech but EU haven't budged, it's no good you talking about traded deals the EU won't discuss them until we agree to there demands.

Conrad

It's time to fully prepare for WTO, the system huge amounts of trade are done under perfectly well.

The Spanish will soon want to get talks going if they see us in talks with the Israelis, S Africans and Moroccans for fresh produce which we can remove all tariffs on. Core exporters to the UK would indeed be banging down the doors of Govt.

Let's take all money off the table after March 2019 and see how Barnier and Merkel sweat.
Let's intimate we will agree with Trump and insist all EU nations pay 2% to NATO.

Remember Remain said our leaving could cause a global recession. If true, why would the EU want to take the chance of a hard Brexit?

May and Davis are too placatory, stroking the Emperors ring finger won't cut it.