Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Filo25

economic wrote: »

its pretty simple. if the EU dont play ball we exit the hard way, dont pay them anything and can freely negotiate trade deals with other countries. watch how germans economy collapses as we currently import 5bn eur of goods from them net. then they will coming begging to us.

Well they certainly don't seem to be "begging" at present, by all accounts its France and Germany that are taking a harder line over the terms of departure than most.

We also certainly can start negotiating trade deals, but significant trade deals take a long time to negotiate unless we really do want to rollover when it comes to negotiating terms, of course we already have trade deals through the EU with a lot of countries anyway.

economic

Filo25 wrote: »

Well they certainly don't seem to be "begging" at present, by all accounts its France and Germany that are taking a harder line over the terms of departure than most.

We also certainly can start negotiating trade deals, but significant trade deals take a long time to negotiate unless we really do want to rollover when it comes to negotiating terms, of course we already have trade deals through the EU with a lot of countries anyway.

its because germany and france want to make an example of us so no other country dare try to leave the EU.

trade deals dont have to take a long time, at least they dont have to cause chaos short term. things can be done smoothly.

mayonnaise

economic wrote: »

watch how germans economy collapses as we currently import 5bn eur of goods from them net. then they will coming begging to us.

Germany's exports totaled $1.3 TRILLION last year.
Really guys... we have to get rid of this 'they need us more than we need them' mentality.
5bn net lol

nkomp18

For those that want to rush to the WTO solution, bear in mind that countries like Spain can block UK from gaining access to it:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-wto-schedule-argentina-spain-brexit-latest-a7468766.html

The UK is going to become extremely isolated in the next few years, I wonder at what point will the stubborn Brexiteers accept their mistake.

Let's see what their limit is

Filo25

economic wrote: »

its because germany and france want to make an example of us so no other country dare try to leave the EU.

trade deals dont have to take a long time, at least they dont have to cause chaos short term. things can be done smoothly.

To be fair if we leave on WTO terms and other countries believe we are desperate for quick deals, I'm sure they can be done, although I would imagine the counterparty in the negotiations may be a lot happier with the result than we are. Or are we still deluding ourselves that Donald "America First" Trump wants a "fair" deal with the UK?

At this stage I would actually rather have someone like Johnson as PM than May, at least when the final result of negotiations disappoints a lot of people then he won't be able to claim that it was just because the PM didn't believe in Brexit and it would all have been fine if everyone was just a bit more optimistic.

I would rather see the blame for the final outcome rests where it belongs, rather than having those who supported it carping from the sidelines.

economic

mayonnaise wrote: »

Germany's exports totaled $1.3 TRILLION last year.
Really guys... we have to get rid of this 'they need us more than we need them' mentality.
5bn net lol

the 1.3 Trillion is not net of imports. net of imports it is roughly 280bn exported.

still yes i agree the 5bn is a small dent in their net exports.

ukcarper

economic wrote: »

the 1.3 Trillion is not net of imports. net of imports it is roughly 280bn exported.

still yes i agree the 5bn is a small dent in their net exports.

But our trade deficit with Germany is 30billion

mayonnaise

ukcarper wrote: »

I think it's you who should be worried

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Shouldn't we all be worried then?

We should all worry, but low income families should worry more.

'No-deal' Brexit likely to hit low-income families hardest

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/17/no-deal-brexit-likely-to-hit-low-income-families-hardest

By the way, CPI up to 3% as per today's ONS report...

Eric_the_half_a_bee

mayonnaise wrote: »

'No-deal' Brexit likely to hit low-income families hardest

As far as I can tell, that analysis assumes no change in the pattern of imports from the EU v imports from the rest of the world. Which makes it risible, seeing as the whole point of the EU is to protect French farmers and make EU citizens pay over the odds for their food by imposing punitive import tariffs from the rest of the world.

Herzlos

economic wrote: »

its pretty simple. if the EU dont play ball we exit the hard way, dont pay them anything and can freely negotiate trade deals with other countries. watch how germans economy collapses as we currently import 5bn eur of goods from them net. then they will coming begging to us.

The German economy will definitely not collapse if we stop buying from them.