Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Conrad

Ballard wrote: »

There was a guy on Radio 5 Live this morning saying that with no deal once we leave we would only pay an additional 3.5-4% tax on imported goods and that that’s such a small amount that it would barely be noticeable.

It’s true that it wouldn’t effect me significantly but I’m not on the minimum wage. I suspect that it would bring a drop in the standard of living to many.

Sadly I was busy and didn’t catch the guys name or title but appeared to be his best case scenario.

If imported French apples went up in prices, our own farmers could sell more British apples.
Indeed we could import tariff free apples from NZ, SA, Israel, USA, N Africa.


It's all far too simplistic to think UK business wont react to any changes in tariff regimes. It just will.


UK flower growers are already experiencing a boom as Dutch flower imports reduce. It's what business does.


Literally all Remain doom is based on the idea we just sot there and don't adapt to change.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

yeh i see 25bn as well but some search results show 5bn too. confusing. both mention trade account so the definitions seem to be the same.

if it is 25bn, then of course thats pretty significant of their total net exports of 300bn. nearly 10%. either UK are stupid or germany are crazy. we should just walk out without a deal if they are playing hard ball.

The germans export a lot outside the EU like expensive cars to the USA

Outside the EU we will continue to import German goods and services.
Outside the EU, the EU will continue to import British goods and services.

Both might fall somewhat but not 100% perhaps 10-20% is more feasible

If somehow the EU places quotas or actual restrictions rather than small tarriffs then the UK will have little choice but to do that to EU imports. That would be very bad news for both the UK and the EU and I dont think that is likely

Here is a link with UK imports and exports, the only problem is it is not in pounds but dollars

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/


One of the odd things about UK imports and Exports is gold. We aparantly import $58 billion of the stuff and export $16 billion of the stuff so are a net importer of over $40 billion in gold. I am not sure that should count in goods and services surely its better to look at gold as a currency movement??

Either way the UK net imports are $201 Billion for 2016 but excluding gold which isnt consumed it is $161 billion net imports which is better

setmefree2

It doesn't go away.

UK trade committee to probe Nafta membership idea

The UK’s international trade committee has launched an inquiry into UK-US trade relations and the possibility of a UK membership of the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) following Brexit.
The committee says that “key issues are already emerging” at the informal discussion stage, and that it will carry out an examination of the opportunities and challenges posed in negotiating a free trade agreement between the UK and US.

Clearly the government has a lot of work to do before negotiators sit down for formal talks with their US counterparts,” says committee chair Angus MacNeil. He goes on to say that the committee will explore which sectors can expect to benefit – or not – from a trade deal. “How will any agreement affect industries such as farming, car manufacturing and financial services? Will US pharma look for a deal enabling them to sell their drugs at higher prices than the NHS will currently pay? Should the UK attempt to move its regulations away from those of the EU and towards those of the US?” he says.

https://www.gtreview.com/news/europe/uk-trade-committee-to-probe-nafta-membership-idea/

Moby

Perhaps we can all grow our own food. The way things are going we may have to! https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/16/chris-graylings-claims-that-uk-can-grow-more-dismissed-as-tripe

Herzlos

economic wrote: »

yes they will - see above post. they are already declining.

We make up about 10% of their exports (your numbers), so even if we suddently import nothing (which is essentially impossible) the worst hit they'll take is 10% of exports. I doubt it'll drop by as much as half, so we're talking about a 5% drop in exports.

5% drop can't really be called a collapse in any way.

Plus, if Brexiteers are willing to let the UK economy drop by an estimated 19% to get sovereignty, why does everyone assume Germany isn't willing to let exports drop by under 5% to maintain the Euro project, even though German businesses have said exactly that?

Also, new car sales in the UK are down drastically this year, which is already hurting the German car industry. I assume because everyone is waiting to see what'll happen or unwilling to commit to payments on a new car going into uncertain times. That'll get worse if our consumer confidence and economy doesn't improve. This means that the amount of sway we have over the German car industry has reduced since the referendum.

If you were to use the example of a country having, say, 45% of exports going to another country at risk, then I'd accept that as an economic collapse.

Conrad wrote: »

Yet you link to numpty uber-biased rags such as the Guardian and Indy..

Even you must be able to appreciate that 2 well established printed papers have more credibility that "Westmonster". You not liking what they are talking about doesn't make them biased or rags.

setmefree2

BANK of England Governor Mark Carney has been accused of over-reacting to last year's Brexit vote by slashing interest rates and ramping up the country's money-printing programme, as the chief policymaker appeared before MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

The Bank cut core interest rates from 0.5 per cent to 0.25 per cent last August following the Brexit vote, helping to significantly weakend the pound.
Yet economy growth remained strong in the following months, while inflation surged amid the weaker pound.

MP Alister Jack today asked Mark Carney said the Bank should have raised interest rates rather than implementing a cut after the Brexit vote.
Mr Jack also said lower interest rates has left Britain more exposed to a possible economy downturn.
Questioning Mr Carney, the Conservative MP said: "With the referendum result, you expected sterling to drop - would you agree with me that was the time to raise interest rates by a quarter of a per cent to support the pound, rather than to drop them by a quarter of a per cent.

"And effectively that drop of a quarter of a per cent on the Brexit vote was unnecessary?"

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/867477/Mark-Carney-Brexit-news-interest-rate-Treasury-Select-Committee

[Deleted User]

Herzlos wrote: »

Also, new car sales in the UK are down drastically this year, which is already hurting the German car industry. I assume because everyone is waiting to see what'll happen or unwilling to commit to payments on a new car going into uncertain times. That'll get worse if our consumer confidence and economy doesn't improve. This means that the amount of sway we have over the German car industry has reduced since the referendum.

Strange isn't it. I thought all we had to do was stop buying BMWs, and the Europeans would give us everything we asked for.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

Even you must be able to appreciate that 2 well established printed papers have more credibility that "Westmonster". You not liking what they are talking about doesn't make them biased or rags.

The Express and Mail are also printed (although the Indy isn't any more). You may not like what they print, therefore, according to you they are not biased. Agreed?

setmefree2

Germany Drafts Outline of EU-U.K. Ties Post-Brexit, Paper Shows

Germany is working on proposals for the European Union’s future relations with the U.K. that include calls for a “comprehensive free-trade accord” with the British government, according to a draft paper prepared by the Foreign Ministry in Berlin.

The four-page document, dated Oct. 11, urges the EU avoid a piecemeal approach if and when talks with the U.K. get under way. It proposes instead a broad partnership that includes “at a minimum” the fields of foreign and security policy; fighting terrorism; cooperation on criminal justice; agriculture and fisheries; energy; transport, and especially air transport; research and digital issues.

“We share the U.K.’s desire to secure a close partnership with the Union after its exit that covers economic and trade relations,” the ministry states in the paper, which has been circulated to other German government departments but not approved by the Chancellery.
The Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the paper.

In its paper, the ministry recommends that the free-trade deal should be “balanced, ambitious and far-reaching,” with the degree of access to the EU’s single market conditional on the extent to which the U.K. is prepared to adhere to regulatory norms. Even where the U.K. agrees to common rules, there can be no “cherry-picking” that gives the U.K. a competitive advantage, it said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/germany-drafts-outline-of-eu-u-k-ties-post-brexit-paper-shows

Also

http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/germany-draws-up-plan-for-post-brexit-eu-uk-ties-includes-free-trade-deal-20171016

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/germany-drafts-outline-of-eu-u-k-ties-post-brexit-paper-shows

Also

http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/germany-draws-up-plan-for-post-brexit-eu-uk-ties-includes-free-trade-deal-20171016

Doesn't this belong in the links thread you started in Discussion Time?