Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

GreatApe wrote: »

The germans export a lot outside the EU like expensive cars to the USA

Outside the EU we will continue to import German goods and services.
Outside the EU, the EU will continue to import British goods and services.

Both might fall somewhat but not 100% perhaps 10-20% is more feasible

If somehow the EU places quotas or actual restrictions rather than small tarriffs then the UK will have little choice but to do that to EU imports. That would be very bad news for both the UK and the EU and I dont think that is likely

Here is a link with UK imports and exports, the only problem is it is not in pounds but dollars

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/


One of the odd things about UK imports and Exports is gold. We aparantly import $58 billion of the stuff and export $16 billion of the stuff so are a net importer of over $40 billion in gold. I am not sure that should count in goods and services surely its better to look at gold as a currency movement??

Either way the UK net imports are $201 Billion for 2016 but excluding gold which isnt consumed it is $161 billion net imports which is better

I assume you do know that BMW have a very large factory in the USA it produces the X3, X4, X5 and X6. production presently runs at 1400 vehicles a day.

ukcarper

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Eh?

It's not a 'big concession' when you agree to pay a fraction of what you owe...

We'll need to pay a few tens of billions to cover the divorce settlement - then another 10 billion a year or so for the transitional agreement.

Once we've agreed that then we can talk about future relationships.

But again - there will be no Europe a la carte - fantasies of having cake and eating it are as delusional today as they ever were. And rightly so.

We can choose from a number of options that are on the table - EEA/EFTA - Swiss style series of 100 plus bilateral treaties - some newly renamed copy of the above that lets the Tories save face - etc - but those will involve complying with the rules and regs for single market access, paying our dues, and accepting a third party arbiter for dispute resolution.

Or we can plummet off the cliff and crash onto WTO terms, wiping out most of our agriculture and manufacturing industries, along with many others, in the process.

The only people stalling progress here are the UK govt by continuing to bicker and fight with each other and refusing to accept reality.

No that's what EU say. I fail to understand why you and others are so keen to put blame on UK and paint EU as some kind of righteous angles.

I voted remain but I realise people voted to leave and the main reason they did that was not to be tied to the four freedoms. I fully expect us to leave and no trade deal will be detrimental to us and EU but the EU are afraid that if they give us a good deal other member states might be tempted to leave.

Matt_L

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Do you think it's weird that every "leaver" agrees with you and every "remainer" doesn't?

It's almost like petty point scoring.

It does look like petty point scoring, and as it appears to be the remoaners crying about it in the first place they should move on. How difficult can it be to ignore a post if it so offends you..

Matt_L

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Eh?

It's not a 'big concession' when you agree to pay a fraction of what you owe...

We'll need to pay a few tens of billions to cover the divorce settlement - then another 10 billion a year or so for the transitional agreement.

Once we've agreed that then we can talk about future relationships.

But again - there will be no Europe a la carte - fantasies of having cake and eating it are as delusional today as they ever were. And rightly so.

We can choose from a number of options that are on the table - EEA/EFTA - Swiss style series of 100 plus bilateral treaties - some newly renamed copy of the above that lets the Tories save face - etc - but those will involve complying with the rules and regs for single market access, paying our dues, and accepting a third party arbiter for dispute resolution.

Or we can plummet off the cliff and crash onto WTO terms, wiping out most of our agriculture and manufacturing industries, along with many others, in the process.

The only people stalling progress here are the UK govt by continuing to bicker and fight with each other and refusing to accept reality.

I listened to TM's Florence speech, could you point out to me as i must have missed it where she said we would only pay a fraction of what we owe?

Or is this just something you've made up..

gfplux

Britain was told by its leaders before negotiations started in June 2017 that all would go smoothly and if it did not a no deal would be better that a bad deal.

Now it is clear that a no leaving deal leads automatically to a no trade deal and the cliff edge is March 2019 surely Brexiters now recognise things are not going as planned.

Brexiters may blame the EU and remainers may blame David Davis etc but to continue to say that everything is going to plan is plainly wrong.

Things are not going to plan (even a cunning plan)
I don't know what the answer is but the British Government also don't know the answer. They can get away with this incompetence because too many people are allowing them to blame the EU.

Frankly Governments of various colours have spent over 40 years blaming their own incompetence on the EU and now Britain is leaving they continue to do so.
Brexiters should hold the Government to account as it very badly attempts to action "the will of the people" as "the people have spoken"

No company manager presiding over this shambles would still have their job.

While Brexiters squabble with remainers over trivia they will not get they want and remainers will have to look on as Theresa May and her cabinet drive Britain toward disaster.

System

Matt_L wrote: »

It does look like petty point scoring, and as it appears to be the remoaners crying about it in the first place they should move on. How difficult can it be to ignore a post if it so offends you..

Nice point scoring Matt

I don't think anyone has an issue with "a post" as by definition it couldn't be categorised as spam.

Honestly, I'm mature enough to know that whoever was mindlessly posting links, I'd tell them it's spam.

Herzlos

Matt_L wrote: »

It does look like petty point scoring, and as it appears to be the remoaners crying about it in the first place they should move on. How difficult can it be to ignore a post if it so offends you..

Because I think he makes some good points when he contributes rather than spamming.

Matt_L

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't dislike the links, I'd just like to see him engage in conversation as I'm bored of trying to discuss one of the links and being blanked or told he doesn't want to comment on it.

Literally all we're asking for is 1 line of his own words.

If he was doing this in any other forums. You'd be calling for him to get banned, but he agrees with you so is always the victim.

Herzlos wrote: »

Because I think he makes some good points when he contributes rather than spamming.

So just to clarify, 1 line in his own words. He can post a link and simply say, 'i believe this link makes some important points", this is ok???? It must be ok as there are many such links with one liners from remainers. Again its petty because he constantly posts good news stories for the brexit side and you guys hate that....

You lost the vote and we see the hate, bullying, name calling and attempting to report good news stories as spam.....

Herzlos

I don't hate seeing interesting news stories; so many pro-brexit ones contradict themselves.

I'd rather see a line that indicated he'd read the article and is trying to engage "Looks like Cumbrian cheese farmers are not worried about Brexit", than something that could apply to any story. You know, something that distinguishes his posts from spam.

Moby

See this article from the Blert leading our negotiations:-

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

So be under no doubt: we can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly. I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th, 2016 to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months.
So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. Trade deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU, and of course we will also be seeking deals with Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, the UAE, Indonesia – and many others.

So in summary, we need to take a brisk but measured approach to Brexit. This would involve concluding consultations and laying out the detailed plans in the next few months. In conjunction with the high intensity negotiating free trade round this increase in certainty will stabilise the markets. As the free trade round and associated economic policies progress, we should see a material increase in foreign direct investment and domestic capital expenditure to take advantage of the opportunities that are created. This means that some of the economic benefits of Brexit will materialise even before the probable formal departure from the EU around December 2018. All economic estimates are subject to the vagaries of the world economy, but this approach should allow us to present to the British electorate in 2020 the early fruits of a successful global trade-based economic strategy as we build our place in the world.

So how well is it going Davey?:rotfl:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-brexit-blitz-spirit-oecd-chief-stay-calm-economy-business-trade-gdp-a8004981.html

Britain should engage its “Blitz spirit” for the Brexit process and “stay calm and carry on” despite challenges ahead, a leading economist has said.

Angel Gurria, secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), said there was a “bumpy road ahead” but urged Britain to remember Winston Churchill and government efforts to raise morale during the Second World War.

It came as the influential organisation published an explosive report claiming a second referendum to reverse Brexit would give a “significant” boost to the UK economy