Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

setmefree2

Brexiteers fear ‘Swiss Trap’ trade deal

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexiteers-fear-swiss-trap-deal-for-britain/

Some in the Treasury do not see the “Swiss Trap” as something to avoid, according to one senior former No. 10 aide. A Swiss-style arrangement would give legal sovereignty but in reality would ensure Britain never really diverges from European regulation, according to the Tory with close connections to the U.K. negotiating team.

“It’s Brexit but it locks Britain into the system forever because the costs of diverging are so enormous we would never do it,” said the aide, who maintains close contact with leading officials in government.
The prime minister told MPs last week that comprehensive Swiss-style access to the European single market is possible because, unlike Canada, after more than 40 years of being bound together British regulation is fully aligned to the rest of EU. The problem, as May and the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier have publicly admitted, is how to manage what happens when either side wants to drift apart, an inevitable consequence of Britain “taking back control.”

Crucially, any penalty for diverging from the agreement would only affect one chapter of the trade deal, according to British officials who have studied the Canadian model. This would mean the penalty for British divergence would be far less severe than that which hangs over the Swiss, giving the U.K. far more control over its future direction than enjoyed by Bern.

Conrad

How much of a hole in the EUs budget would be left were to leave with no deal in March 2019? Tens of billions.

There's a lot of leverage right there, not to mention huge damage to the economy of Irealnd and others.

setmefree2

DEBATE: Will plans to divide existing WTO quotas into the EU put other members at a disadvantage?

http://www.cityam.com/273884/debate-plans-divide-existing-wto-quotas-into-eu-put-other

in practice these countries should see little difference, because the TRQs are intended to be set at a level that reflects existing trade flows to the UK and the EU. In order to achieve this outcome, it is crucial to undertake robust and thorough analysis by product and country, as well as historical trends. Any further future market access can be discussed separately as part of the UK’s bilateral trade negotiations.
This needs to be within the context of the UK’s future role with the WTO and proposals regarding domestic agricultural support.

Thrugelmir

With regards to PSA worth remembering in 2006 they closed a profitable plant in Coventry and moved production ultimately to Eastern Europe. Far easier to sack workers in the UK. Nor would they upset the French Government or Unions. When push come to shove...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2006/apr/18/motoring.lifeandhealth

Conrad

Imagine it's summer 2018, Labour have engineered it so a no deal is not an option.

Politically what would happen to the Tory party?

My guess, a real Brexiteer would be made PM attracting all those Labour Brexiteers and kippers.

Labour would look like traitors colluding with Brussells to engineer a bad deal offer in the hope it would be declined and then not enough time to do a better deal, so we end up remaining, or so they would hope...

Remainers would be faced not only with Brexit, but the hardest of all hard Brexits thanks to thier manipulative attempts.

System

setmefree2 wrote: »

Ok - I see how it is. You can do news links but the rest of us can't.

Shall I report your posts as spam?

Posting links as part of a discussion and adding commentary is ok.

Spamming links for no reason is... well, spam. We can all type "EU" into google and copy and paste the contents.

Conrad

Cartoons are doing the rounds showing Starmer & Corbyn sitting at the negotiating table next to Barnier facing Davis.

posh*spice

Conrad wrote: »

Imagine it's summer 2018, Labour have engineered it so a no deal is not an option.

Politically what would happen to the Tory party?

My guess, a real Brexiteer would be made PM attracting all those Labour Brexiteers and kippers.

Labour would look like traitors colluding with Brussells to engineer a bad deal offer in the hope it would be declined and then not enough time to do a better deal, so we end up remaining, or so they would hope...

Remainers would be faced not only with Brexit, but the hardest of all hard Brexits thanks to thier manipulative attempts.

Stupidist thing I've ever heard that parliament could vote down a no deal. what is the country supposed to do, as article 50 has been triggered and we are leaving in march 2019 deal or no deal.

What's May supposed to do go back to the EU and say what exactly?

They were the ones that voted to trigger article 50.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

What's May supposed to do go back to the EU and say what exactly?

Presumably, plead for an extension to our notice period, and extend our EU membership. Since the EU doesn't want us to leave, they will probably agree to that.

Thrugelmir

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

Since the EU doesn't want us to leave, they will probably agree to that.

The inner circle of the EU can move forward if the UK leaves. Discussions are already under way. Though Merkel is now wounded. In a worse position than May even.