Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

It's absurd to think there will be flights because of Spanish hotel owners.

It's yet another complication from brexit that needs to be factored in. I don't think everything will be grounded unless we really screw things up.

There is no chance in hell that a "no flights" scenario will ever occur.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There is no chance in hell that a "no flights" scenario will ever occur.

There was also no chance in hell we'd end up with Trump or Brexit.

Anyway, you seem to be trying to argue against a point that no-ones making. I'll be stunned if we end up with a "no flights" deal, because of the consequences of it, but I wouldn't put it past our incompetent negotiating team to manage to risk it somehow.

The point I was making at the idea tha we'll definitely have flights because Spain wants our tourists. We'll get flights because our economy relies on it, and our flight operators like making money.

Whilst it's unlikely to not happen, it's yet another thing that we need to waste time and money on, and nudging us further away from the glorious brexit some of us still seem to think is possible.

vivatifosi

cogito wrote: »

Of course. What possible objection could Spain have to the French disrupting their tourist industry which had a mere 18,000,000 visitors from the UK last year?

What possible objection could they have every time French ATCs go on strike? That affects far more countries flying to Spain than just the UK, but they still do it.

To get to Spain, it is possible to fly over international waters instead, but that is a longer route, meaning that flights take longer, burn more fuel, and that aircraft operators can use their planes fewer times in a day. For a few days, airlines can suck this up. For longer, the impact would be a rise in prices.

I don't think British planes will be grounded, but do expect greater obstacles if no deal occurs.

If 'Remoaners' are at fault for being overly pessimistic about Brexit, then the other side of the coin is irrational Brexuberance, where every outcome is rosy. The final outcome will always be somewhere in the middle.

Ballard

cogito wrote: »

Of course. What possible objection could Spain have to the French disrupting their tourist industry which had a mere 18,000,000 visitors from the UK last year?

This sounds very similar to the assertion that the German car industry would be vigourously pushing Merkel to ensure that they have full access to the UK market.

mrginge

Joeskeppi wrote: »

We need some kind of deal.

The only plan that should be made in the event of no deal is how we cancel the whole thing. The governments job is to do what's best for the country and the people in it. Crashing out with an 18% GDP hit is the opposite, even if some of the population are still shouting "YOU LOST LOL GET OVER IT OUT IS OUT" with their fingers in their ears.

I don’t think we need a deal.
It would be in everyone’s interests if there was a deal however.

But the question asked was in or out. Not in or out if we get an acceptable exit deal.

And the reason why the question wasn’t that is because if it was then it would have been a landslide for the latter option.

If the govt takes the view that we should stay in then they can either enforce that themselves or put it back to the electorate. Assuming of course that staying in is actually an option.

Carl31

Joeskeppi wrote: »

We need some kind of deal.

The only plan that should be made in the event of no deal is how we cancel the whole thing. The governments job is to do what's best for the country and the people in it. Crashing out with an 18% GDP hit is the opposite, even if some of the population are still shouting "YOU LOST LOL GET OVER IT OUT IS OUT" with their fingers in their ears.

who decides "whats best" for the people though?

isnt that what a referendum is?

Herzlos

Carl31 wrote: »

who decides "whats best" for the people though?

That's what our elected representatives are for - we give them a vague idea and they try to figure out a safe way to do it, or not do it.

isnt that what a referendum is?

A narrow margin, non-binding referendum shouldn't override common sense in parliament. If it does; why do we even have a parliament?

Crashy_Time

Herzlos wrote: »

That's what our elected representatives are for - we give them a vague idea and they try to figure out a safe way to do it, or not do it.



A narrow margin, non-binding referendum shouldn't override common sense in parliament. If it does; why do we even have a parliament?

You can`t ignore the gut instincts of that many voters, politicians know this, they will make a deal of some sort or lose their seats. I heard a phone in yesterday about the spiralling numbers sleeping rough in Glasgow and other Scottish cities and towns, the overwhelming view from many callers was that "refugees" get far too much, and that we need to look after our "own" first. Of course the retort to this is that it is white Glaswegian/Scottish lying in the doorways because they are the one`s most abusing themselves with drink or drugs, but the notion among the public that people coming into the country from certain places "get everything handed to them" is a dangerous meme if you are a politician. Free movement was a massive political mistake IMO.

mayonnaise

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There is no chance in hell that a "no flights" scenario will ever occur.

No chance in hell, but still, tour operators are covering their behinds...just in case .

Tour operator Thomas Cook has tightened its terms and conditions as it is selling holidays taking place after the UK is set to leave the EU in March 2019.

The firm recently inserted a clause stating that it will not be liable to pay compensation or reimburse expenses for delays caused by "airspace closures".

http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/national/article/Tourists-warned-Theres-no-compensation-if-flights-grounded-post-Brexit-8e21e9a0-51f0-4224-859a-9cc3b90de6d6-ds

Conrad

Ballard wrote: »

This sounds very similar to the assertion that the German car industry would be vigourously pushing Merkel to ensure that they have full access to the UK market.

They will be when it really comes down to it. Statements by Motoring trade bodies that are stuffed full of non-business people are not relevant to reality.


Think of the massive effort BMW goes to, to market their products to us. Why on earth would they do all this at great expense only to in the next breath say they wont mind risking losing UK customers?


Remainers love to say we will buy their cars no matter the cost, this is total nonsense.