Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking

Filo25 wrote: »

Have Ireland said they want continued access to the broader UK market as a precondition for movement on talks?

The only proposal I have heard from them so far is that Northern Ireland should remain in the European single market post Brexit, which would effectively move the economic border from the Ireland/NI border to the Irish Sea, it would have very little impact on rUK (I fully accept the proposal is unworkable in the current political situation in the UK)

Northern Ireland is part of the UK internal market and the Irish want continued access to it, hence my point.

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

That'll be "take control" as in Brussels negotiating on your behalf?
That not surprisingly is a situation that is causing a bit of angst among opposition MP`s in the Irish Parliament.

Not all MP's agreeing in a Parliement, is that a first?

cogito

cogito wrote: »

Would someone please mind explaining to me how the Norway model would solve the border problem bearing in mind that Norway is in the single market and the Schengen area?

Anyone? I really would like to know.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Not all MP's agreeing in a Parliement, is that a first?

Brussels starting to dictate to sovereign states, is this becoming more prevalent?

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Not all MP's agreeing in a Parliement, is that a first?

No, of course not.
Just merely pointing out that the dynamic is one of Ireland desperately wanting continued access to the UK internal market rather than being at the "mercy of a third country".

cogito

I'm reading that the ECB is proposing an end to the Depositor Protection Scheme which protects depositors in the event of a bank failure. Under these proposals, if you have money in such a bank, you're stuffed. This is already causing consternation in Greece, Spain and Italy and the Greek parliament is having an emergency debate tomorrow.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-19/ecb-proposes-end-deposit-protection

I wouldn't normally link to a website like zerohedge but it quotes verbatim the relevant bits and also links to the ECB paper.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Thank you for that measured and well researched response. We are learning together!

Your final response to Why can't it be changed.
"It can, but needs time and investment, which isn't going to happen as nobody knows whether it will be necessary. There's a real possibility of spending a ton of money on a white elephant."

That is just the question being faced by hundreds and thousand of businesses of all sizes. Everyone's deadline is different but we are getting close to some.

A gamble on port infrastructure probably needs a long term plan between the Irish Government and the EU to change the land bridge to a sea bridge. This might involve difficulties at the borders to persuade Company's its in their best interest to use the sea bridge.

Brexit might just be the wake up call to persuade the Irish Government to take control of their own destiny. The continued use of the land bridge would leave Ireland always at the mercy of a "third country"

If there is a way of making it work, it makes sense to continue with the land bridge. The situation reminds me a bit of American cruise ships and Cuba. For years, Americans were banned from going to Cuba, as were American parented cruise ships, even if they serve a British audience like P&O.

You therefore have this crazy situation where American cruises go all over the Caribbean but don't stop at the Caribbean's biggest island. However it is so big, you have no choice but to add another sea day as you chug past and don't stop. This makes no economic sense, it is just a political oddity.

It will be a crying shame for Ireland if they lose the use of the land bridge. It really is by far the cheapest, quickest and most logical route. Possibly good for air pollution in the UK, not so good for the seas. For the Irish, It will be like flying to Spain when the French ATCs are on strike. You get there, but it takes longer. However unlike French air traffic strikes, it will be a permanent solution if the land bridge is lost. That would be a very sad turn of events.

Thrugelmir

vivatifosi wrote: »

It will be a crying shame for Ireland if they lose the use of the land bridge.

Reduce wear and tear on the UK road network. Not as if the European road haiulage industry makes a great contribution to the upkeep. From a commercial perspective add considerable to transport costs. Nor would it fulfill the requirements of modern logistics where supply is basically provided on demand. With little to no intermediary warehousing.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Anyone? I really would like to know.

Why a Norway model would avoid the need for a hard border?

If you've got freedom of movement & goods, there's no need for a border - everyone and everything is free to cross it.

The border only needs hardened if there's some lack of freedom, or some vastly different conditions (like food standards) across the border. You don't want the flow of stuff that's legal in side A into side B where it's not legal.

So potentially the best solution to the Eire/NI border is to get within the single market with free movement.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

Why a Norway model would avoid the need for a hard border?

If you've got freedom of movement & goods, there's no need for a border - everyone and everything is free to cross it.

The border only needs hardened if there's some lack of freedom, or some vastly different conditions (like food standards) across the border. You don't want the flow of stuff that's legal in side A into side B where it's not legal.

So potentially the best solution to the Eire/NI border is to get within the single market with free movement.

But remaining in the Single Market means no Brexit so it's no solution at all.