Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Do you have a link to any of the figures. Thank you.

Unfortunately not. I happened to be in Eire in September for an extended period. Brexit and EU related issues were discussed daily on the radio (RTE). Unlike the UK media coverage. The discussion was at length and in detail. Which gave a real insight to the concerns over there. In the same way that the UK car industry has a high interlinked dependency with Europe. The entire Eire economy likewise does with the UK. A direct ferry to Europe isn't going to transform their economy either.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

Why should she go out of her way to offer a solution. It's basically a problem for the EU and Ireland.

When the EU are demanding money with menaces if we don't jump through all their hoops, we'd be foolish to offer help without substantial concessions coming the other way.

The EU 26 market is worth £45 billion to Ireland with Britain buying £15 billion. If Ireland together with the EU can solve the £45 billion problem then that sounds as if part of the problem is solved.
Step by step towards a solution sound good to me.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Unfortunately not. I happened to be in Eire in September for an extended period. Brexit and EU related issues were discussed daily on the radio (RTE). Unlike the UK media coverage. The discussion was at length and in detail. Which gave a real insight to the concerns over there. In the same way that the UK car industry has a high interlinked dependency with Europe. The entire Eire economy likewise does with the UK. A direct ferry to Europe isn't going to transform their economy either.

Having experienced first hand how important the Irish see this (unlike the rest of Britain) you will not be surprised that Ireland needs a lot of progress before it would agree "sufficient progress" and will allow (vote for) discussions to move to phase 2.

I am fascinated by the online market and the implications after Brexit. Living in one of the EU27 we as a family order online from at least 3 Country's in the EU. One of those you will not be surprised is Britain. Prices often include shipping so don't effect the decision very often. However the thought of duty or customs inspection will make a BIG DIFFERENCE.
So I am now assuming post Brexit the big online company's will fulfill EU27 orders from within the EU27.
Their UK wharehouse will only ship to Britain.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

I am fascinated by the online market and the implications after Brexit.

To put matters into context. You need to appreciate how rural the majority of Eire is. Also how poor much of the infrastructure is as well. Nor is much of Eire provided for well in terms of retail outlets.

Have you considered that Eire imports 90% of it's energy needs from the UK. Exchange rates therefore play a major part in the economy as well.

tracey3596

gfplux wrote: »

Yes just like the big red bus but now in Florence.
She says it but does not know how to deliver it.
I know that if I buy a lottery ticket I will win the jackpot otherwise why would I buy the ticket.
PS Tracey. Yes I have a pro EU stance. Do I want Britain to prosper...YES.
HOWEVER if my best friend is just about to jump of a cliff I will do all I can to stop him/her

The usual pro-EU hysteria I see.
Your luck must be better than the millions of hopeful lottery ticket purchasers BTW if you know that you will win the jackpot. Any chance of you PM'ing me the winning numbers for next week please?

You realise that the "cliff" your alleged friend is about to jump off is in fact no more than the height of the average kerb at about five inches, right? Scary, that. Your friend needs serious help with pals like you trying to stop a crazy jump like that.

If you don't believe that to be so perhaps you would provide evidence - EVIDENCE - of this cliff. Again EVIDENCE and not rumour or supposition. Because in honesty pretty much all the similar scare stories fed to us so far have been proven wrong.
(No I'm not going to waste more thread space telling you what these are. As before, you read this thread so you know.)

vivatifosi

I like your posts gfplux, they make me think and go away and look stuff up. Having thought about your questions, these are not necessarily insurmountable, more that some are impractical and others can't be solved so quickly. Anyhow, I've embedded my comments in your post.

gfplux wrote: »

Thank you vivatifosi. I have read the various PDF's as well as the analysis of the issue by Politico which I had seen before. I am better informed due to your guidance but this only makes it more obvious to me that those challenges can be solved if need be.
Almost every paragraph begs the question.....why
WHY are ferrys slow
The average ferry travels at 25mph, some of the large ferries travel at 30-35 mph but that's a lot slower than a truck on land.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_ferries_of_Europe

Why can't ferrys go faster
They can, but you have to change the design from a standard ferry, to a high speed catermaran, but these are much, much smaller and not suitable for high volumes of freight.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2351454/Meet-Francisco-The-fastest-ferry-planet-jet-engines-propel-1000-passengers-150-cars-67-MPH.html

WHY is there not enough capacity
It's partially that the capacity is in the wrong place. The busy ports are Belfast and Dublin, whereas the southernmost ports which are closest to the sea route around the British coast are less developed. About half of all freight to Eire ports goes through Dublin, but the ferries that go to France also go from Rosslare and Cork, which are smaller.
http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=tba07
WHY are Irish ports not well equipped
Investment has been made at Dublin and Belfast in particular, but this reflects pre-Brexit needs using the land bridge, which in a frictionless world is the proposed route.

WHY is there not enough infrastructure
Not enough, or the wrong type?

WHY where those choices made
Because Brexit, let alone a hard Brexit, weren't predicted?
WHY does it sound so difficult.
Because it is
WHY can't it be changed
It can, but needs time and investment, which isn't going to happen as nobody knows whether it will be necessary. There's a real possibility of spending a ton of money on a white elephant.
WHY WHY WHY

As the old business bore would say "these difficulties sound like challenges" or "These problems were sent not to worry us but to be solved"

Yes I am only addressing one part of the border problem but solving big problems is about solving all the little problems that make up the big problem!

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

Indeed so.
Clearly Ireland's membership of the Eurozone is now not condusive to its long held desire to have continued access to the UK internal market, and they say the UK wants it cake and eat it.

Have Ireland said they want continued access to the broader UK market as a precondition for movement on talks?

The only proposal I have heard from them so far is that Northern Ireland should remain in the European single market post Brexit, which would effectively move the economic border from the Ireland/NI border to the Irish Sea, it would have very little impact on rUK (I fully accept the proposal is unworkable in the current political situation in the UK)

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

Have Ireland said they want continued access to the broader UK market as a precondition for movement on talks?

The only proposal I have heard from them so far is that Northern Ireland should remain in the European single market post Brexit, which would effectively move the economic border from the Ireland/NI border to the Irish Sea, it would have very little impact on rUK (I fully accept the proposal is unworkable in the current political situation in the UK)

It's only unacceptable to politicians who have an agenda. There have been politicians with opposing agendas in both parts of Ireland for decades and decades. Eventually, you realise that you can't please everyone there.

Meanwhile, the average Northern and Southern Irish person just wants to get on with their lives as best as possible, and if the shifting of a technical border into the Irish sea allows that, then they should take priority IMO.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

I like your posts gfplux, they make me think and go away and look stuff up. Having thought about your questions, these are not necessarily insurmountable, more that some are impractical and others can't be solved so quickly. Anyhow, I've embedded my comments in your post.

Thank you for that measured and well researched response. We are learning together!

Your final response to Why can't it be changed.
"It can, but needs time and investment, which isn't going to happen as nobody knows whether it will be necessary. There's a real possibility of spending a ton of money on a white elephant."

That is just the question being faced by hundreds and thousand of businesses of all sizes. Everyone's deadline is different but we are getting close to some.

A gamble on port infrastructure probably needs a long term plan between the Irish Government and the EU to change the land bridge to a sea bridge. This might involve difficulties at the borders to persuade Company's its in their best interest to use the sea bridge.

Brexit might just be the wake up call to persuade the Irish Government to take control of their own destiny. The continued use of the land bridge would leave Ireland always at the mercy of a "third country"

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Brexit might just be the wake up call to persuade the Irish Government to take control of their own destiny. The continued use of the land bridge would leave Ireland always at the mercy of a "third country"

That'll be "take control" as in Brussels negotiating on your behalf?
That not surprisingly is a situation that is causing a bit of angst among opposition MP`s in the Irish Parliament.